A Bullish Momentum
Markus Thielen, Head of Research and Strategy at Matrixport, noted that if Bitcoin is up by at least +100% by this time of the year, there’s a +71% chance that it will finish the year on a higher note. He likens this trend to Bitcoin’s version of a “Santa Claus Rally,” which typically culminates by December 18th, encompassing the six to seven weeks from early November to mid-December.
As of the present, Bitcoin is trading above $35,000, reflecting a remarkable 114% gain year-to-date. Several factors contribute to this impressive rise, including optimism surrounding a spot ETF, speculation about the Federal Reserve’s liquidity tightening cycle reaching its peak, and increased demand from investors.
Matrixport‘s analysis suggests that Bitcoin could experience a 65% price surge by year-end, potentially pushing it beyond $65,000. This positive outlook is based on historical data, where in seven out of the past 12 years, Bitcoin recorded at least 100% gains in the first 10 months, followed by an average 65% increase in the final eight weeks.
If Bitcoin is up at least +100% by this time of the year, then there is a +71% it will rally further by 65% or more by Dec. 31
Thielen’s analysis also highlights that when Bitcoin has increased by at least +50% by the end of October, there is, on average, a 78% likelihood that it will continue to rise further into the year-end. In seven out of nine previous instances, Bitcoin saw an additional +68% gain until the year’s end. These conclusions are based on thirteen years of Bitcoin’s historical data.
It’s important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results, but given the upcoming bullish mining reward halving early next year, the likelihood of history repeating itself remains high. As Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong upward potential, the possibility of a $56,000 price point by the end of the year appears feasible.