A prominent analyst known as CryptoCon has suggested that Bitcoin could reach $45,000 in November, aligning with a classic Bitcoin price cycle. Despite Bitcoin achieving 17-month highs, many expected a pullback. However, CryptoCon believes there is further potential for up to 30% gains from the current price levels.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Price Behavior
Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Fibonacci Phases chart. Source: CryptoCon/X
CryptoCon based this prediction on a Fibonacci retracement model. By comparing Bitcoin’s current price behavior to previous cycles, he demonstrated that BTC/USD still has room to grow, aiming for the highest of the Fibonacci model’s five targets, which signifies a mid-cycle peak. Four of these targets have already been reached, with the fourth target being approximately 3.3% above this week’s high at $36,368. In the interim, there are what he referred to as “phases,” with November now identified as the timeline for the next phase’s completion.
The Path to $45,000
According to CryptoCon, the move to the cycle mid-top typically takes around two months after the end of phase 2. With the first month of phase 4 closing soon, the mid-top could be reached as early as November. He summarized this by stating, “A possible move above 45k by next month.”
BTC/USD chart with Fibonacci resistance levels. Source: CryptoCon/X
Continuing, CryptoCon highlighted two key resistance levels that Bitcoin bulls must overcome for the $45,000 target to materialize, both of which are situated around $36,400.
Diverging Cycle Behavior in 2023
Another analyst, Rekt Capital, pointed out a significant difference in Bitcoin’s behavior in 2023 compared to previous cycles. Normally, at this point in the four-year pattern, BTC/USD would be testing support, not resistance. Rekt Capital contrasted the current scenario with that of March 2020, when Bitcoin reached cycle lows just above $3,000 during a market crash induced by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bitcoin price cycle comparison. Source: Rekt Capital/X
He noted that Bitcoin’s behavior in 2023 is entirely distinct from what it exhibited at the same stage in the 2019 cycle. Rekt Capital suggested that any substantial pullback could present a substantial buying opportunity within the ongoing cycle.