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Bitcoin Prediction

Bitcoin has surged back into the spotlight, recently hitting its all-time high of nearly $70,000. This resurgence has bolstered the wider crypto market, including major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and XRP. Amidst these wild swings, billionaire investor Mark Cuban has made a striking prediction about Bitcoin’s future.

Cuban’s “Crazy” Prediction

Mark Cuban recently took to social media platform X to share his thoughts on Bitcoin’s potential. “How high can the [bitcoin] price go,” Cuban asked. “Way higher than you think.” He emphasized Bitcoin’s supply cap of 21 million and its global market, suggesting that if the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency declines, Bitcoin could emerge as a global “haven” and currency. Cuban believes Bitcoin could become a means to protect savings, particularly in countries facing hyperinflation.

Bitcoin’s Recent Surge

Bitcoin‘s price has surged over the past year, largely driven by major institutional interest. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has been at the forefront of this movement, with its IBIT fund leading a series of successful Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs have been among the fastest-growing in history since their launch, leading to speculation that Bitcoin could follow a growth trajectory similar to gold after its first ETF debuted.

The Trump Factor

Cuban also linked the growing support for Donald Trump among Silicon Valley figures to a strategic “Bitcoin play.” Trump, who has recently embraced Bitcoin and crypto, named pro-Bitcoin former venture capitalist J.D. Vance as his 2024 running mate. This move aligns with his recent pro-crypto stance, contrasting sharply with the Biden administration’s more skeptical view on cryptocurrencies.

Future Implications

Cuban argues that potential changes in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Trump administration could make it easier to operate crypto businesses. He also suggests that lower tax rates and tariffs, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, could accelerate Bitcoin’s price rise.

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After 14 years, Labour is in control of the UK government. The transition from a Conservative-led government to one under Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sparked questions about the fate of the country’s Bitcoin holdings. According to crypto intelligence platform Arkham, the UK government holds approximately 61,245 Bitcoin, valued at over $4 billion as of July 19.

The newly appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, likely has the authority to allocate these funds. Most of the Bitcoin was seized in a money laundering case involving hospitality worker Jian Wen. Despite potential bureaucratic challenges, MP Reeves may consider liquidating the Bitcoin holdings to support Labour’s goals of economic stability and growth.

Potential Liquidation

MP Reeves might consider liquidating the Bitcoin to support the Labour government’s economic strategies. In a policy statement on July 17, King Charles III indicated Labour’s priorities, including building affordable housing and enhancing the nation’s rail system. This move could align with Labour’s goal to promote economic stability and growth.

Source: MP Rachel Reeves

Source: MP Rachel Reeves

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has remained largely silent on crypto as a Labour policy objective. However, the Labour government introduced 40 bills on July 17, reflecting their legislative priorities. Previously, MP Tulip Siddiq, as Shadow City Minister and Shadow Economic Secretary, had expressed intentions to tighten crypto regulations.

International Context

The UK’s Bitcoin holdings make it one of the largest governmental stockpiles, second only to the United States. Recently, Germany liquidated its 49,858 BTC holdings, netting approximately $2.8 billion. The decision by MP Reeves could be influenced by similar economic considerations.

Market Implications

The timing of potential liquidation is crucial, given the volatile nature of the crypto market. Analysts suggest that the leadup to the US Presidential election might favour crypto markets, while events like the payout from Mt. Gox’s previously frozen BTC holdings could cause price fluctuations.

As the UK Labour government navigates its economic agenda, the decision on whether to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings will be closely watched, with potentially significant impacts on both the national economy and the global crypto market.

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Bitcoin has recently approached a crucial bull market trendline that previously led to 30% gains. Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s price is retesting the short-term holder’s (STH) realized price, bringing short-term holders back into profit territory.

Bitcoin Price Sends Short-Term Holders into the Black

The activity of Bitcoin’s STH cohort is a critical reference point during bull markets, as their aggregate cost basis often forms long-term price support. Since the bull market began in early 2023, BTC/USD has only briefly dipped below the STH realized price. This trend is coming to an end, with STH entities—those holding BTC for 155 days or less—no longer experiencing losses.

Bitcoin STH realized price. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin STH realized price. Source: CryptoQuant

“Recently, the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the STH Realized Price,” CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn noted in a blog post on July 18. “This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.” Maartunn also highlighted that since 2023, Bitcoin reclaiming the STH realized price has led to at least 30% profits twice.

STH Realized Price Variations and Profitability Declines

The exact level of the STH realized price varies by source, with CryptoQuant’s estimate being slightly lower than others. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode, in its July 16 newsletter, reported that the STH realized price was $64,300 at the time of writing. Glassnode also noted a dramatic decline in STH profitability, with more than 66% of their supply moving into an unrealized loss over the past 30 days.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

Key Resistance and Market Sentiment

The area around $65,000 remains a crucial target for Bitcoin bulls to convert into support. A well-known trader and former fund manager, Aksel Kibar, expressed optimism, stating, “This is the 5th month $BTCUSD is not backing off from the strong resistance around 65K. I see this as very bullish long-term. Sticking to a resistance and no intention of selling off is usually a sign of a pending breakout.”

Volume Concerns and Market Dynamics

However, popular crypto trader JT cautioned that BTC/USD needs to break through several Fibonacci retracement levels for a shot at new all-time highs. He also noted that trading volume has significantly decreased since the recent price pump off the $53,000 low, highlighting that current volumes are below-average profiles.

BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: JT/X

BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: JT/X

In summary, Bitcoin’s approach to the key STH realized price trendline and the market dynamics around $65,000 suggest the potential for significant gains, though concerns about trading volume remain.

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Cryptocurrency self-custody is gaining renewed attention with Tangem’s introduction of a new wearable cold wallet, the Tangem Ring. This innovative device aims to encourage daily cryptocurrency transactions and boost the adoption of self-custody.

Tangem, a hardware wallet firm, announced the launch of the Tangem Ring on July 17. This new self-custodial crypto wallet, designed as a ring, combines the concepts of self-custody and wearables. Andrey Lazutkin, Tangem’s chief technology officer, explained the firm’s vision:

“We believe that cryptocurrency should bring daily benefits to humanity, not just sit in a bank vault. In other words, cryptocurrency should be used daily. And we in Tangem want to create a device for this daily use.”

Security and Practicality of the Tangem Ring

As the Tangem Ring brings self-custody and hardware wallets into everyday life, concerns about its security and safety in public arise. Lazutkin assured us that the ring offers similar protection to Tangem’s Visa-integrated hardware wallet in card form. He noted,

“The ring, like the Tangem wallet in card form, is protected by an access code. Even if it’s stolen, access to cryptocurrency will still be blocked.”

The Tangem Ring features an EAL6+ secure element, making it nearly impossible to hack. Lazutkin added that wearing the ring on a finger makes it harder to steal. Alex Gomez, founder of CyberScrilla, emphasized that many crypto owners need mobile wallets to manage their assets on the go, highlighting the practicality of the Tangem Ring.

Self-custodial wallets by Tangem. Source: Tangem

Regulatory Considerations and Future Plans

The integration of self-custody with daily cryptocurrency transactions might have regulatory implications. Initially, the Tangem Ring will launch without a payment capability. According to a Tangem spokesperson, “The crypto ring we are launching today will be available for pre-order and will begin shipping to users from the end of October.” Integration with the Visa payment chip is planned for 2025.

The Tangem Ring will be available in all countries where Tangem Pay currently operates, including Europe and the United Kingdom. Despite European regulators’ concerns about self-custodial solutions, the trend towards self-custody continues to grow. Industry executives believe that self-custody will play a significant role in the adoption of crypto payments.

As the popularity of self-custodial wallets like the Tangem Ring increases, it is expected to drive the adoption of cryptocurrency payments and promote the practical use of digital assets in everyday transactions.

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Bitcoin prices have soared following an assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. On July 13, Bitcoin’s price spiked minutes after the incident, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to political turmoil.

Bitcoin’s Rise and Market Sentiment

By July 15, Bitcoin had climbed to $64,671, marking a 5.8% increase over 24 hours and a 14.2% rise for the week. Other cryptocurrencies followed this upward trend, with Bitcoin peaking around $65,000 before settling at $63,664.

Austin Campbell, founder and managing partner at Zero-Knowledge Consulting, explained that assassination attempts typically bolster support for targeted candidates. Trump’s defiant emergence from the incident, captured in an iconic photograph, boosted his perceived strength and electoral prospects. Campbell noted, “Trump is seen as the vastly more pro-Bitcoin and pro-crypto candidate.”

Historical Context and Safe-Haven Status

Historically, assassination attempts on US presidents are rare and significant. The last such attempt occurred in 1981 with Ronald Reagan. These events can underscore Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. David Tawil, co-founder and president of ProChain Capital, stated, “I believe BTC is a safe-haven asset,” though he emphasized the political narrative over safe-haven status as the principal reason for Bitcoin’s recent surge.

Source: Evan Vucci/Associated Press

Tawil predicted that Trump’s increased election odds would lead to a more favorable crypto regulatory environment. He anticipates that a Trump administration would replace crypto-skeptical figures like SEC Chair Gary Gensler with crypto-friendly officials like Hester Pierce.

Global Perspective and Market Reactions

Winston Ma, co-founder of Dragon AI, noted that US election dynamics are more immediate influences on crypto markets than global uncertainties. He highlighted the crypto community’s perception of Trump and Republicans as proponents of business-friendly crypto regulations.

Justin d’Anethan, head of business development for Keyrock in the Asia-Pacific region, observed that Trump’s assassination attempt boosted his odds in prediction markets, correlating with Bitcoin’s price surge. At political betting site PredictIt, Trump’s victory contracts rose from $0.60 to $0.70 post-incident.

Broader Market Impact

The incident also affected other markets. Shares of gun and ammunition companies like Smith & Wesson, as well as crypto firms such as Coinbase and Marathon Digital, saw significant gains. Trump Media and Technology Group shares surged by 30%, according to Reuters.

Vitali Dervoed, co-founder and CEO of Spark, described the market’s initial shock and subsequent recovery, highlighting the event’s psychological impact on the crypto community.

In conclusion, the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump has sparked significant market reactions, with Bitcoin prices soaring amid heightened political uncertainty and speculation about future regulatory changes.

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Amid recent social media reports suggesting China may lift its long-standing ban on Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency community remains doubtful about the likelihood of such a move.

On July 14, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz shared on X (formerly Twitter) that he had heard rumors of China potentially “unbanning” Bitcoin by late 2024. “If this is true, and it’s the second time I’ve heard it in weeks, it’s a huge deal,” Novogratz commented, seeking more insights from the community.

Historical Context of China’s Bitcoin Bans

China has a history of imposing restrictions on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Despite these bans, the country has maintained a significant presence in Bitcoin mining and other crypto activities. Many in the community remain skeptical, recalling China’s repeated bans on Bitcoin-related activities, including a major crackdown in 2021 and a ban on crypto exchanges in 2017.

One commenter on Novogratz’s post noted, “They have banned it like six times, and nothing has happened. The same thing will happen when they ‘unban’ it multiple times.”

Optimism Amid Skepticism

Some industry observers remain cautiously optimistic. Recent criticism of China’s approach to crypto regulation has fueled speculation. For instance, in late June, Wang Yang, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, criticized China’s ban on crypto mining. He argued that the ban was “very unwise” and that it pushed related businesses to the United States.

Source: Mike Novogratz

Industry Experts Doubt a Reversal

Despite the optimism, several industry figures believe China is unlikely to change its stance on Bitcoin. Yifan He, CEO of Chinese blockchain firm Red Date Technology, expressed strong doubts.

“If you refer to ‘unban Bitcoin’ as China allowing Chinese citizens to buy Bitcoin with renminbi from inside China, it is not going to happen, period,” He told.

Similarly, Mikko Ohtamaa, co-founder of algorithmic investment protocol Trading Strategy, argued that a reversal would contradict the Chinese government’s political agenda.

“China’s concern with crypto has always been the capital flight. Cryptocurrencies further democratize finance and enable capital flight for middle and low-income classes,” Ohtamaa explained.

Conclusion

The recent speculation follows incorrect predictions that Hong Kong’s launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in April 2024 would open the market for mainland Chinese investors. Local experts confirmed that ETF issuers cannot provide such exposure despite their close ties with mainland China. The community remains cautious, awaiting concrete developments before drawing any conclusions about China’s stance on Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has climbed to $63,000, bolstered by heightened market activity and dramatic news, including a failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. This event has added fuel to the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum.

On Monday, Bitcoin’s price increased by 5.85%, rising from a low of $59,546 to a high of $63,025, according to CoinMarketCap data. This surge marks Bitcoin’s highest point in two weeks and contributes to a 4.16% increase in the global crypto market cap, now at $2.30 trillion. Over the past week, Bitcoin has displayed a significant 13.82% increase.

Breaking Resistance Levels

The price rally began as Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels at $60,500 and $62,000. This breakthrough pushed BTC past $62,500, entering a positive trend zone. The momentum carried the price above $63,000 before consolidating its gains. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $62,982 with a daily trading volume of $25.33 billion, an increase of over 22% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Technically, Bitcoin is performing well above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, from the recent low of $56,514 to the high of $63,025. It remains above the 100-hourly simple moving average (SMA), indicating a strong bullish trend. A key bullish trend line with resistance around $63,500 is forming on the BTC/USD hourly chart.

According to BTC price predictions, if the cryptocurrency continues its rally, the immediate resistance level will be at $63,250, with significant resistance near $63,850. A decisive move above $63,850 could trigger further gains, potentially testing the $65,000 resistance level. Furthermore, the relative strength index (RSI) is overbought at 79.24, suggesting strong buying pressure.

On the downside, a correction could occur if Bitcoin fails to surpass the $63,000 resistance. Initial support is at $62,500, followed by more substantial support at $62,200 and the trend line zone. Further declines could see Bitcoin testing support around $61,550 and $60,500.

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Following a recent court ruling in Illinois that classified Bitcoin and Ether as commodities, Nigerian stakeholders are calling on the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to adopt a similar approach. This move aims to provide a tailored regulatory framework that reflects the unique characteristics of these digital assets.

Importance of Clear Guidelines

Lucky Uwakwe, chairman of the Blockchain Industry Coordinating Committee of Nigeria (BICCoN), emphasized the need for clear guidelines on crypto asset classification.

“The Nigerian SEC should make rules that define the asset class of crypto assets or break respective crypto into asset classes and explain to the public how such crypto qualifies to be called securities or commodities,” Uwakwe told.

He noted that while the US SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) agree on classifying Bitcoin and Ether as commodities, the distinction between proof-of-stake (PoS) and proof-of-work (PoW) protocols could affect the classification of specific crypto assets.

Advocacy for Individual Scrutiny

Oladotun Wilfred Akangbe, chief marketing officer at Flincap, highlighted the multifaceted nature of cryptocurrency and the varied interest from multiple Nigerian governmental bodies, including the CBN, SEC, FIRS, and NSA. Akangbe stressed the need for distinct regulatory approaches for Bitcoin and Ethereum compared to other cryptocurrencies.

“Foundational cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have become very valuable commodities, and assets are priced in them,” Akangbe said.

He suggested that the SEC should primarily focus on using cryptocurrencies as fundraising instruments, such as initial coin offerings (ICOs).

Local crypto analyst Rume Ophi argued that each cryptocurrency is unique and should be scrutinized individually to determine whether it qualifies as a security or a commodity.

Path to Comprehensive Regulation

The stakeholders’ recommendations are crucial as Nigeria seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. By considering Bitcoin and Ether as commodities, the Nigerian SEC can provide much-needed clarity and stability in the market, encouraging innovation while ensuring regulatory compliance.

This approach aims to position Nigeria at the forefront of the global financial landscape by providing a robust and clear regulatory environment for digital assets.

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Despite Bitcoin’s price hovering around multimonth lows, institutional investors are seizing the opportunity to increase their holdings, according to a recent analysis. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that institutional investors added 100,000 BTC, equivalent to $5.7 billion, in just one week.

Significant Accumulation Amid Price Drop

The latest Quicktake blog post from CryptoQuant highlights that entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have ramped up their Bitcoin exposure since the beginning of June. During this period, BTC/USD has seen a decline of up to 23%. Despite this, institutional players have not only continued to buy but have done so with increased conviction compared to when Bitcoin was near its all-time highs.

March vs. July: A Shift in Buying Patterns

CryptoQuant contributor Cauê Oliveira notes that the current buying trend is reminiscent of the significant inflows seen during the U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) boom in March. However, unlike March, when the demand was more linked to fundraising, the recent accumulation suggests a genuine “buying the dip” strategy among large players.

Bitcoin large holder balance data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

While March saw daily inflows topping $1 billion, current day-to-day figures are lower, with around $79 million on July 11 and $294 million on July 8, the highest in a month.

Conviction Amid Market Fear

The increase in institutional holdings contrasts sharply with the behavior of novice investors, many of whom capitulated last week, particularly those who had purchased Bitcoin between one and three months ago.

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

As reported, short-term holders, including new whales, are currently dealing with 17% unrealized losses, with their aggregate cost basis sitting above $64,000. This has left the overall crypto market sentiment in a state of “extreme fear,” according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which dropped to its lowest level since January.

Conclusion

While the Bitcoin market faces significant volatility and fear, institutional investors are taking a long-term view, increasing their holdings and showing confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future potential. This trend suggests that despite short-term price declines, institutional belief in Bitcoin’s value proposition remains strong.

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The Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA) in the United Kingdom has issued a warning about a new scam involving emails from fake lawyers demanding Bitcoin payments. According to an update on its website, an email from the address “joyti.henchie@attwaters.co” claims to have copied all of the recipient’s personal data and threatens to release damaging videos unless a Bitcoin payment is made.

Fake Email Uses Solicitor’s Name

The scam email includes a link to a Bitcoin wallet, which may contain malware. It falsely uses the name “Patrice Joyce” and claims to be associated with the legitimate firms Attwaters Solicitors and Attwaters Jameson Hill Solicitors. However, the SRA confirmed that it does not authorize or regulate a lawyer named Patrice Joyce.

The SRA emphasizes that any business or transaction through the email domain “@attwaters.co” is not associated with the genuine firms or individuals it regulates. The genuine firm’s email domains end in “@attwaters.co.uk” or “@attwatersjamesonhill.co.uk.”

Manjot Kaur Henchie, known as Joyti, the bearer of the name used in the email address, is a genuine solicitor working at the legitimate firm Attwaters Jameson Hill Solicitors. Both the firm and Henchie have confirmed they have no connection to the scam email.

SRA’s Advice on Suspicious Correspondence

The SRA advises individuals to conduct due diligence if they receive suspicious correspondence. This includes verifying the email’s authenticity by contacting the law firm directly through reliable means and checking the SRA’s records to confirm the individual or firm’s authorization.

Rise of Email Extortion Scams

The alert by the UK regulator is another case highlighting the importance of being vigilant against email scams and ensuring any demands for payment, particularly in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, are thoroughly investigated before action is taken.

A similar email extortion scam emerged in 2019, targeting website owners using Google’s AdSense program. Scammers demanded Bitcoin in exchange for supposedly protecting against an attack that would allegedly result in AdSense account suspension.

In 2020, New Zealand law enforcement warned about a cryptocurrency scam where fraudsters blackmail victims by claiming to possess information about their online pornographic activities. The scammers demand a Bitcoin ransom, threatening to expose the victims’ alleged porn use if they don’t pay up.

Conclusion

As cryptocurrency scams become more sophisticated, the public is urged to remain cautious and verify the legitimacy of any unexpected requests for Bitcoin payments.

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