Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a recent price spike, but analysts are cautioning that a further dip could be imminent. The cryptocurrency’s price action, resembling a pattern seen last week, comes as markets prepare for key news events, including a speech by Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

Short-Term Gains Amid Caution

Bitcoin has risen by approximately 2% since the daily close on July 25, reaching above $67,000. However, not all traders are convinced of the short-term strength in BTC’s price. Popular trader Crypto Ed highlighted the surprising rebound from local lows of $63,430, which mirrored price behavior from the previous week.

“Bouncing stronger than I was expecting yesterday, looks impulsive,” Crypto Ed noted. He had anticipated a corrective bounce followed by a further drop towards $62,000 or even lower. Despite the current bounce, Crypto Ed acknowledged that the market could still fulfill bullish expectations and avoid further downside.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Crypto Ed

“That scenario is still possible, but the strength in the current bounce is starting to look like we have already finished leg 2 and heading to new highs again,” he added, referencing an Elliott Wave chart that suggested a longer-term BTC price target of around $80,000.

Anticipation for Trump’s Bitcoin Conference Speech

There is growing anticipation for Donald Trump’s appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Trump, a United States presidential candidate, has been associated with a bullish outlook for the crypto market after expressing supportive policy plans for the industry. Rumors also suggest Trump might consider creating a US strategic reserve in Bitcoin if elected.

BTC/USDT order book data. Source: Cole Garner

Potential for Further Decline

Despite recent gains, some analysts maintain a conservative outlook. Popular analyst Cole Garner pointed out that the aggregate spot BTC order book remains bearish, predicting more sideways movement for the market.

Trading resource Material Indicators also highlighted a downside target of $63,500 as a critical level for Bitcoin bulls. Should the market drop to this level, it would invalidate the latest upside signals from proprietary trading indicators.

BTC/USD chart with trading indicator signals. Source: Material Indicators

In conclusion, while Bitcoin has seen a recent price increase, traders and analysts warn that a further dip to $62,000 or lower is still a possibility. Market participants will be closely watching upcoming events and technical indicators for further direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered a significant portion of its weekly losses, climbing 2.56% to around $67,480 on July 26. This rebound comes as traders prepare for former President Donald Trump’s keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on July 27, while also awaiting crucial US inflation data.

Trump Speech Fuels Market Optimism

Market speculation is rife that Trump might announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve policy if he wins reelection in November. The prospect of the United States, the world’s leading economy, potentially becoming a Bitcoin buyer has bolstered market sentiment. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, noted that “nobody wants to short Bitcoin into the weekend,” highlighting the influence of the powerful crypto lobby, which has raised $150 million for the Crypto Super PAC.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Inflation Data and Rate Cut Expectations

Bitcoin’s gains are also supported by the anticipation of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve. The core PCE Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in June, matching May’s increase. Annually, it is projected to grow at 2.5%, slightly below the previous 2.6% but still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Target rate probabilities for September Fed meeting. Source: CME

Recent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell have fueled expectations for two interest rate cuts by year-end, with traders pricing in a 25 basis points cut in September and increasing bets on a similar move in December. Lower rates are typically bullish for non-yielding assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, contributing to Bitcoin’s recovery.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, Bitcoin’s price has bounced off its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA), which has acted as a support level multiple times recently. As of July 26, BTC is targeting the upper trendline of its descending channel pattern, around $68,350, representing a potential 2.50% increase from current levels.

BTC/USD daily candle price chart. Source: TradingView

Additionally, this move could trigger a classic inverse-head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern, potentially leading to further gains in August. If the IH&S pattern plays out, Bitcoin could see an upside target of around $87,440 by October. However, a pullback from the neckline could invalidate this bullish setup, potentially pushing prices below $60,000 in August.

Bitcoin whales have embarked on an extraordinary buying spree, accumulating $23 billion worth of BTC in July, according to new data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. This significant move indicates a strong commitment to current price levels by these large-volume investors.

Whales Boost Holdings by 358,000 BTC

In a July 24 post on X, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted the unprecedented flow of coins to permanent holder addresses, describing it as a wealth transfer unlike anything seen in the history of the crypto market. Over the past month, these permanent holders have added 358,000 BTC to their balances.

Bitcoin permanent holder demand. Source: Ki Young Ju

“Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase,” Ki summarized, pointing out that the amount of BTC moved to permanent holder addresses in July surpasses all previous records, including the period when BTC/USD reached its all-time high of $73,800 in March.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Success

The data also reflects the ongoing success of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as vehicles for institutional BTC exposure. In July alone, global spot ETF inflows amounted to 53,000 BTC. The largest ETF in the United States recorded over $500 million in inflows in a single day on July 22.

However, despite these large inflows, there are warnings that such significant investments often precede corrective BTC price behavior. The recent launch of spot Ether ETFs on July 23 added further complexity to the market narrative, with crypto markets experiencing a notable decline on the second day of trading.

Long-Term Optimism Amid Accumulation Trends

Despite the market fluctuations, Ki remains optimistic about the long-term accumulation trends. “Though not all remaining BTC is in custody wallets, whales are clearly accumulating,” he concluded, emphasizing the unprecedented level of accumulation.

Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Bitcoin Munger

Supporting this sentiment, popular trader and social media commentator Bitcoin Munger shared data on X showing that the largest whale cohort is “furiously accumulating.” The data indicates that only the smallest class of BTC holders, those with 1 BTC or less, are reducing their holdings.

As Bitcoin’s long-term holders continue to show resilience and accumulate more BTC, the market anticipates potential significant moves in the near future, driven by these powerful investors.

Bitcoin is poised for an “explosive rally” as miners conclude their latest capitulation phase, according to the latest data from the hash ribbons indicator. This metric, which monitors two moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, has entered long-term “buy” territory for the first time since mid-May.

Miner Capitulation Ends, Hash Ribbons Data Shows

The hash ribbons indicator tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, reflecting the estimated processing power miners dedicate to the network. A drop in the 30-day moving average below the 60-day moving average suggests miners are struggling, while the reverse indicates a reliable buy signal, historically followed by significant BTC price increases.

Bitcoin hash ribbons. Source: Capriole Investments

On July 23, the hash ribbons indicator exited “capitulation” for the first time in over two months. The last exit occurred in August 2023, when BTC/USD traded at under $30,000. “BTC just witnessed a rare hash ribbon ‘Buy’ signal,” noted popular trader Mikybull Crypto on X, predicting a “massive rally” in a separate post.

BTC/USD chart with hash ribbons data. Source: Mikybull Crypto

Raw data from monitoring resource MiningPoolStats shows Bitcoin hashrate at 676 exahashes per second as of July 22, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

BTC Price Action in Flux

Despite the positive long-term signals, Bitcoin’s price action remains volatile in shorter timeframes. After a recent recovery that pushed the market past $68,000, BTC price action has been in a state of flux. Traders and analysts are watching closely for the next significant movement.

Bitcoin hashrate raw data. Source: MiningPoolStats

The hash ribbons buy signal adds to the growing bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a significant price breakout. As the market reacts to these developments, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin is experiencing a surge in institutional interest with over $530 million flowing into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Despite this bullish sign, some traders warn that such large inflow days have historically preceded periods of price weakness.

In a recent update on July 23, trader Skew highlighted the risk of a “headline curse” for Bitcoin. He noted that previous instances of substantial ETF inflows have often been followed by market sell-offs. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF, saw a staggering $526 million in inflows on June 22. This recent influx brings the total ETF net flows for July 23 to $533.6 million, the highest since March.

BTC/USDT chart with peak IBIT inflows. Source: Skew

“Each time IBIT reported mid-high nine-figure inflow days, it occurred around market supply zones,” Skew said. He cautioned that while the inflows are positive, they are not always indicative of sustained upward momentum. Bitcoin was trading around $66,550 at the time of writing, down 1.5% for the day.

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Ethereum ETFs Fail to Boost ETH Price

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s new spot ETFs, which began trading on July 23, have failed to generate significant price movement for Ether. The price of ETH is flat on the day, showing only a modest 1.5% increase over the past week. This contrasts sharply with the pre-launch excitement Bitcoin experienced earlier this year.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

“The lack of positive reaction to the Ethereum ETF launch is concerning,” trading firm QCP Capital noted. “The market seems to be waiting to see who will ‘sell the news’ first.” Analysts suggest that it may take several months to gauge the demand and impact of the spot Ether ETFs on the market accurately.

ETH/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

As Bitcoin and Ethereum navigate these ETF developments, traders and investors will be closely monitoring the market for further signs of price direction and sustainability.

Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin’s price strength rebounding after an initial dip at the Wall Street open. The launch of trading for spot Ether ETFs surprised market participants with impressive volumes, totaling over $100 million in just 15 minutes. This sent ETH/USD up 2.3%, recovering from an initial drop.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Popular trader Skew noted the expected take-profit selling in both perpetual and spot markets, with heightened open interest in ETH derivatives around the launch. Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MNTrading, highlighted the impressive early trading volumes, comparing them to Bitcoin’s first day. He predicted the Ethereum ETF to trade towards an all-time high within 1-2 months. Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades described the initial flows as “decent,” anticipating increased market volatility.

Bitcoin Faces Near-Term Bearish Threats

Bitcoin retraced its own initial down move, retaking $67,000. Monitoring resource CoinGlass revealed new buyer liquidity at $65,750 and increased sell-side pressure above.

ETH market data. Source: Skew

Traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. Jelle, a popular trader, emphasized the strong foundations being built for the next bear market lows. In a bulletin to its Telegram subscribers, QCP Capital noted that the crypto market’s reaction to the ETH spot ETF launch was muted, with investors waiting to see if it follows the “buy the hype, sell the news” pattern.

ETH/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

QCP compared this to Bitcoin’s ETF launch, which saw a drop to $38,000 but hit all-time highs two months later. The firm warned of short-term downside risks, including fresh payouts to creditors of defunct exchange Mt. Gox and geopolitical uncertainty. They concluded that prices may remain subdued until momentum builds leading up to the elections.

Bitcoin targeted $68,000 at the Wall Street open on July 22, spurred by bullish events, including a significant interest rate cut by China.

China Enacts “Unexpected” Rate Cuts

Data from TradingView indicated BTC price aiming for range highs after briefly dipping below $67,000 earlier in the day. The price rebound coincided with mixed performances in Asian stocks as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut key interest rates, surprising markets.

The PBOC reduced the seven-day reverse repo rate by 0.1% to 1.7%, alongside cuts to the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR), according to Reuters. Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, suggested the unexpected cuts were due to a sharp slowdown in growth momentum in Q2 and the target to achieve this year’s growth goals by the third plenum.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Market commentator Holger Zchaepitz noted it had been nearly a year since the last Chinese rate cut, commenting that the Chinese stock market showed little enthusiasm.

Global interest rate cuts are crucial for the performance of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. While China and Europe have begun rate-cut cycles, the US is expected to start in September.

Bitcoin Approaches Key Resistance

Bitcoin faced its last cluster of resistance before all-time highs, particularly the $69,000 level, which has been significant since late 2021.

“Bitcoin has canceled out almost the entirety of the -25.6% retrace,” noted popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital. “It took two weeks to almost fully cancel out a five-week retrace.”

Central bank interest rate expectations. Source: TXMC Trades/X

Rekt Capital’s chart compared recent BTC price behavior to other retracements during the bull market, highlighting the latest as the deepest in the current uptrend. They suggested any dips to retest $65,000 would be typical, generally leading to an upside towards $71,500.

BTC/USD comparison. Source: Rekt Capital/X

The analyst reiterated the possibility of new all-time highs by September, at the latest. Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, also highlighted the importance of $65,000 as support, with range lows at around $61,000 being the next line of defense. Van de Poppe predicted that maintaining these levels would facilitate a continuation towards the all-time high.

BTC/USDT chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

In summary, Bitcoin’s recent performance and China’s unexpected rate cuts have generated optimism, with analysts predicting potential new all-time highs within the next two months.