Bitcoin has retargeted $64,000 on October 1 after closing September with a record monthly performance. BTC rebounded to $63,778 following a brief dip below $63,000, marking a 7.3% gain for the month, according to CoinGlass. This represents Bitcoin’s best-ever performance for the month of September, often referred to as “Rektember” due to historical price declines.

Strong Mid-Term Support Holds BTC Steady

While Bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 as support, traders remain optimistic. Key support from the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has helped sustain the mid-term bullish trend. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, stressed that holding the 20-week SMA is crucial to avoid a further retracement. Losing both the 20-week SMA and the 200-day moving average would signal weakness, according to Alan.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Other analysts, such as Daan Crypto Trades, highlighted support and resistance levels at $62,700 and $67,000, respectively, based on liquidity patterns in the order book. Roman, another popular trader, pointed out the formation of bullish divergences, suggesting further price gains in the near term.

Buy-the-Dip Strategy Gains Traction

Traders like Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” have encouraged a “buy the dip” strategy as Bitcoin made a higher high above $65,000 on the weekly chart. Michaël van de Poppe also expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, predicting a retest at $60.5K-$61.3K before reaching a new all-time high. He believes Bitcoin is now in a new uptrend, making any dips potential buying opportunities.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

As Bitcoin continues to challenge its previous highs, analysts and traders alike remain focused on breaking the $65,000 barrier and pushing toward a new all-time high.

Bitcoin’s price reached a fresh two-month high of $66,194 on Sept. 27, driven by renewed optimism from China’s economic stimulus measures. The surge in Chinese stocks, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, which saw its best week since 2008, had a ripple effect on the cryptocurrency market, giving Bitcoin a significant boost.

Bitcoin Joins China’s Stock Market Rally

The stimulus measures from China have rejuvenated both traditional and digital markets, with Bitcoin’s price increasing by 3% week-to-date. As US markets digest the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point interest rate cut, Bitcoin has mirrored some of the positive momentum seen in the S&P 500.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Market analysts, including the trading platform The Kobeissi Letter, noted the similarity between current market dynamics and previous bull runs, hinting at potential further price action. Meanwhile, data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows market expectations for another 50-basis-point cut in November, keeping attention on macroeconomic developments.

Bitcoin Holds Strong Support at $65K

Despite minor retracements, Bitcoin held firm at the $65,000 support level. Crypto trader Skew observed substantial liquidity shifts on exchanges, with buy orders moving towards $63,000, indicating sustained market interest.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Filbfilb, the co-founder of DecenTrader, pointed to a “very low” ratio of long to short BTC positions, suggesting an underlying bullish trend. He remarked that Bitcoin’s price is displaying a “familiar bullish smell,” potentially hinting at further upward movement. However, he cautioned that a higher high is needed to push the market further into FOMO (fear of missing out) territory.

With Bitcoin’s price momentum holding strong, many investors are closely watching for signs of a sustained rally as global markets continue to shift.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to encounter resistance, with the $65,000 level emerging as a critical hurdle. At the Wall Street opening on 25th September, BTC faced a dip below $64,000 after briefly reaching a one-month high of $64,795 on Bitstamp.

Despite Bitcoin showing higher lows and highs on hourly charts, traders remain unconvinced of a significant breakout. Popular trader Skew highlighted that $65,000 represents a key area of sell-side liquidity, with no signs of weakening resistance. “Clear passive selling around $65K confirms market views that it’s a real resistance point,” Skew noted in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter).

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

According to Skew, substantial buying pressure is required to break through the $65K level. Meanwhile, bid liquidity is still present between $60,000 and $62,000, keeping the market in a state of indecision.

Market Awaits October Price Movement

Data from CoinGlass underscores the significance of the sell orders at the $65K level, particularly on Binance’s spot pair. Trader Daan Crypto Trades observed that some of these orders were filled at local highs, but the $65K mark continues to signal a crucial barrier to further gains.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Analyst Jelle suggested that a breakout could be imminent, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin’s price action in 2023. “Last summer, Bitcoin chopped around for 219 days, making new highs on 23rd October. This time, we’ve seen ±210 days of sideways movement, and October is about to start,” Jelle shared with followers, hinting at a potential price rally.

Positive Outlook for Year-End

Despite the current lack of upward momentum, optimism remains for those tracking macroeconomic trends. According to trading firm QCP Capital, the influx of liquidity due to central bank easing could drive Bitcoin and other crypto assets higher by the end of the year.

“While crypto factors are not currently driving prices, macroeconomic conditions are aligning to push prices higher,” QCP noted.

Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant rally by the end of 2024, according to the latest report from 10x Research. The report examines macroeconomic factors, seasonal patterns, and potential catalysts that may drive Bitcoin’s price higher in the coming months.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, shared that the anticipated FTX payout could serve as a key driver for Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. Thielen noted, “The proposed $5–$8 billion inflow could spark a melt-up in risk assets, particularly as the US Federal Reserve hints at further rate cuts. This could lead investors to reposition their portfolios for 2025.”

Seasonal Strength and Market Trends

Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong performance from October through March, and the 10x Research report suggests that 2024 could follow this seasonal trend. Similar patterns were observed in previous market cycles in 2014, 2017, and 2021. Despite a bearish outlook earlier in the year, Bitcoin’s performance so far has aligned with its typical seasonal strength.

Key Catalysts and Risks for Bitcoin

While the report is optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for a year-end rally, it also highlights several external factors that could serve as catalysts. These include the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, inflation concerns, and political developments ahead of the US elections.

However, the report cautions investors about Bitcoin’s history of sharp drawdowns, noting that managing trades around key levels, such as the previous cycle high of $68,330 and the 21-week moving average, is crucial for risk management.

Gold Surge Adds to the Bullish Outlook

Meanwhile, gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has surged over 5% since September 9, driven by geopolitical tensions and interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve’s recent 0.5% rate cut further boosted gold, which reached a record high of $2,629 per ounce on September 23. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin could also benefit from this risk-off environment, adding to its potential for a strong finish to the year.

Bitcoin bulls are targeting a key resistance level at $64,000, as BTC price performance finally aligns with risk assets like stocks. On Sept. 19, Bitcoin surged to new three-week highs, reaching $63,500 on the Bitstamp exchange, as the Wall Street open fueled further gains.

Bitcoin price strength mirrors stock market rally

The latest Bitcoin rally follows a favorable macroeconomic environment, with excitement building after the US Federal Reserve announced a 0.5% interest rate cut. This policy easing has boosted equities and gold, with the S&P 500 nearing a new all-time high. As stocks soared, Bitcoin also saw increased momentum, approaching resistance near its record peak from March.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

According to trading firm QCP Capital, the recent shift in the US treasury yield curve, an indicator of recession, reflects growing market optimism. The firm noted that the Fed plans additional interest rate cuts before year-end, further driving demand for risk-on assets.

Institutional sentiment shifts as shorting declines

Amidst the broader market rally, institutional investors appear to be backing off from aggressive Bitcoin shorting. Data from CryptoQuant revealed that net positions in CME Group Bitcoin futures have declined by 75% over the past five months. This signals a significant reduction in bearish sentiment among institutions.

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Despite mixed flows in the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, optimism remains high. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe expect BTC to consolidate before resuming its upward trend, suggesting there is still room for investors to buy the dips.

As Bitcoin traders remain bullish, the market now looks toward breaking the $64,000 resistance level, with the potential for further gains in the near future.