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London-based Jacobi Asset Management has successfully launched the Jacobi Bitcoin ETF on Euronext Amsterdam after nearly two years of approval processes. This event marks Europe’s first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, providing investors access to a product secured by actual Bitcoin holdings.

Significant European Milestone

The introduction of the spot Bitcoin ETF holds great significance for Europe, especially considering the United States’ delay in approving similar proposals by major players like BlackRock and Fidelity. This milestone indicates Europe’s proactive stance on embracing cryptocurrency-related financial products.

U.S. Awaits Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

While Europe advances, the U.S. faces delays in reviewing the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF proposal, with further reviews expected in September. The crypto industry’s anticipation for a spot-Bitcoin ETF continues, with optimism from figures like Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Investment Management, suggesting the possibility of multiple spot Bitcoin ETF approvals simultaneously.

Positive Market Impact

Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani noted in a recent report that the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF have heightened. If the U.S. permits direct BTC investment through a fund, exchange-traded funds could constitute 10% of Bitcoin’s market value within three years, as estimated by Sanford C. Bernstein research.

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The U.S. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is extending its evaluation period for cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, with potential outcomes expected as late as early 2024. The SEC has a maximum 240-day window to delay ETF decisions, leading some firms to wait till March 2024 to receive verdicts on filings submitted in July 2023.

Renewed Interest and Regulatory Moves

BlackRock’s entrance into the Bitcoin ETF application pool in June, along with a reported “surveillance-sharing agreement” with Coinbase, has generated renewed interest. This development suggests the SEC might be more inclined to consider ETF applications with certain conditions. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, submitted its ARK 21Shares spot Bitcoin ETF proposal in May 2023, which recently received a 21-day delay for public comments.

The SEC’s authority to delay ETF applications by up to 240 days, coupled with the complexities of spot crypto ETFs, creates challenges. The regulator has not yet approved a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., only greenlighting investment vehicles tied to BTC futures in October 2021. The nature of spot BTC ETFs, which involves holding actual Bitcoin within a fund for direct investment, presents distinct regulatory considerations.

Potential Favorability for Smaller Firms

Stuart Barton, co-founder of Volatility Shares, suggests that smaller firms could have an advantage in gaining SEC approval for spot crypto ETFs due to the potential for more cooperative negotiations. He notes that established companies have not substantially moved the approval argument forward.

The SEC’s hesitancy to approve spot crypto ETFs might stem from the evolving and sometimes uncertain U.S. crypto market. Enforcement actions against major crypto platforms, ongoing legal battles like the SEC vs. The Ripple case, and calls for clearer regulations contribute to the regulatory landscape. Proposed legislation seeks to define the roles of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in digital asset regulation.

Analysts’ Views and Regulatory Strategy

Some analysts suggest a 65% likelihood of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval, driven in part by BlackRock’s application. Industry figures like Cathie Wood and Grayscale, currently suing the SEC over an ETF application, anticipate the possibility of simultaneous approvals for multiple applications to ensure fairness and prevent any single company from gaining an undue advantage.

In conclusion, the SEC’s extended evaluation timeline for Bitcoin ETF applications, along with regulatory complexities and evolving market dynamics, shape the outlook for potential approvals and the broader regulatory landscape in the U.S.

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After a year-long delay, Jacobi Asset Management’s Jacobi FT Wilshire Bitcoin ETF has officially debuted on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange, marking the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in Europe. Originally slated for a 2022 launch, the London-based digital asset management firm’s investment product is now trading under the ticker symbol BCOIN. Notably, the Guernsey Financial Services Commission approved the product in October 2021, with Fidelity Digital Assets managing its custodial aspects.

The Jacobi FT Wilshire Bitcoin ETF is now trading. Source: Euronext Amsterdam

The Jacobi Bitcoin ETF stands out for its unique features. It’s positioned as the inaugural physical-backed Bitcoin fund, backed by actual BTC holdings. The fund’s eco-friendly approach involves integrating a renewable energy certificate (REC). By measuring Bitcoin network energy usage and purchasing and retiring RECs, the fund emphasizes its commitment to sustainability. These environmental claims are verifiable via blockchain.

Revolutionizing European Crypto Investment

With Europe’s pioneering move in introducing the spot Bitcoin ETF, it highlights the continent’s progressive stance on crypto investment products. In contrast, the United States continues to grapple with the approval of similar applications from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity. Jacobi CEO Martin Bednall sees Europe’s proactive approach as a potential catalyst for broader institutional adoption of digital assets, praising the use of regulated structures like their ETF.

Diverse Offerings in the European Crypto ETF Market

The Jacobi Bitcoin ETF joins other notable entrants in the European crypto ETF landscape. Earlier in June 2023, Melanion Capital introduced a Bitcoin Equities ETF on Euronext Amsterdam. This distinct offering tracks the Melanion Bitcoin Exposure Index, comprising European and American stocks closely correlated to BTC’s market value. Unlike the spot ETF, investors gain exposure to companies with significant Bitcoin holdings, cryptocurrency exchanges, and mining operations, including MicroStrategy, Riot, Marathon Digital, and Hut8.

The successful launch of the Jacobi Bitcoin ETF on Euronext Amsterdam heralds a groundbreaking development in Europe’s crypto investment realm. This accomplishment underscores the region’s willingness to embrace digital asset opportunities and positions it at the forefront of the evolving financial landscape.

 

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Bitcoin’s price movement continues to remain remarkably subdued, prompting speculation about an imminent breakout. As the new week begins, BTC’s volatility remains low, contributing to a rangebound market.

Stagnant Price Action and Limited Volatility

Bitcoin, currently priced at $29,445, is displaying a classic August pattern, characterized by minimal volatility. The cryptocurrency is trading within a narrow range below the $30,000 mark. This prolonged stability is causing frustration among traders and market observers.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears

Despite fluctuations between bullish and bearish sentiment on exchanges, neither side has managed to establish a definitive price trend for Bitcoin. This deadlock has prompted speculations about when the situation will change.

Potential Catalysts for Price Movement

With limited macroeconomic triggers on the horizon, external factors are likely needed to spark a significant price shift. There’s a growing argument that Bitcoin’s next major breakout could be brewing, given the accumulation of holdings by whales. Similar historical patterns, including low volatility measured by the Bollinger Bands metric, further support this notion.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Comparisons are being drawn to previous periods of low volatility, such as September 2016 and January 2023, where Bitcoin’s price later experienced significant movement. This historical context suggests that a price shift may be inevitable, though the exact timing remains uncertain.

Weekend Activity and Expert Perspectives

The recent weekly close saw some fleeting volatility, but this momentum was short-lived. Traders like Michaël van de Poppe and Daan Crypto Trades are emphasizing key price levels, particularly $29,700, as crucial thresholds for potential bullish moves. Both traders highlighted the unusually calm weekend conditions, with low volatility even during this typically active period.

As the week unfolds, Bitcoin’s price action continues to captivate the attention of traders and analysts, with anticipation growing for a potential breakout from the current range.

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Bitcoin mining firm TeraWulf has reported a substantial increase in its Bitcoin rewards after scaling up its mining capacity in the first half of 2023. According to the company’s recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, TeraWulf successfully mined 1,441 BTC in the first two quarters of the year, with 508 BTC in Q1 and an additional 375 BTC in Q2.

Increased Hash Rate and Mining Yields Surge Company Revenue

The expansion in hash rate and self-mined BTC has resulted in a remarkable uptick in the company’s quarterly revenue, soaring from $11.5 million to $15.5 million in Q2. TeraWulf attributes this improvement to the combination of its elevated hash rate and the recovering valuation of Bitcoin in the market.

Expansion Plans and Operational Figures

TeraWulf currently operates over 50,000 advanced Bitcoin miners across its New York-based Lake Mariner facility and the nuclear-powered Nautilus operation in Pennsylvania. The company’s operational hash rate stands at 5.5 exahashes per second (EH/s), supported by 160 megawatts (MW) of miner capacity across both sites.

TeraWulf’s nuclear-powered Nautilus mining location.

The company’s ambitious growth strategy includes an expansion of its Lake Mariner site by an additional 43 MW by the close of 2023. This expansion will house 18,500 new-gen S19j XP miners from renowned Chinese manufacturer Bitmain. With this enhancement, TeraWulf anticipates boosting its self-mining hash rate by an impressive 58%, elevating it from 5.0 EH/s to 7.9 EH/s.

Hut8 Faces Q2 Setback, Diversification Plans Underway

In contrast, Hut8, another BTC mining entity, experienced a dip in hash rate and self-mined Bitcoin in Q2 2023, as revealed in their mid-year results. The company mined 399 BTC in the quarter, marking a 58% decrease from Q2 2022. Hut8 attributes this decline to multiple factors, including the heightened difficulty in Bitcoin mining, operational pauses at their North Bay Facility, and persistent electrical challenges at their Drumheller site.

Diversified Operations and Future Prospects

Hut8 is actively diversifying its infrastructure away from exclusive Bitcoin mining. Their high-performance computing operation consistently generates an average of $4 million per quarter, with expectations of growth following their upcoming five-year contract as a computing infrastructure provider to Interior Health, commencing in late 2023.

Hindered by high energy inputs causing equipment failures, Hut8’s Drumheller site suffered a 20% reduction in installed hash rate. Presently, the company holds a self-mined Bitcoin balance of 9,136 BTC, valued at approximately $368.7 million. During Q2, they sold 396 of the 399 BTC mined, generating $14.7 million in revenue. Hut8 envisions increased hash rate capacity following an anticipated merger with US Bitcoin.

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Despite the remarkable stability in Bitcoin’s price action, analysts are asserting that the cryptocurrency has reached its bottom. While predictions point to a standard weekend pattern, shifts in BTC price charts are still evident. The continuation of subdued volatility was noted leading up to August 12, maintaining the “astonishing” trend in BTC price movement.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Anticipating “Classic Weekend Chop”

Market data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView highlighted a level Bitcoin trading landscape at the start of the weekend. Following minimal reactions to US macroeconomic data releases, BTC/USD remained steady near $29,500 – a pivotal point where bullish and bearish forces contend. A prevailing sentiment among traders, such as Daan Crypto Trades, is the expectation of a traditional weekend price oscillation, reminiscent of previous patterns.

Contrasting Opinions from Market Experts

While the past week’s lack of price action surprised many, some market veterans remain confident in the potential for upward momentum. Michaël van de Poppe of trading firm Eight expressed his astonishment at Bitcoin’s price behavior, voicing optimism for a positive trajectory ahead. The sentiment was echoed by other traders, albeit with cautionary thresholds, like Maartunn from CryptoQuant, who observed increased long positions from Bitcoin whales.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Signs of Volatility Looming

Market indicators, particularly the Binance BTC/USD order book, suggest a sustained rangebound scenario, with the potential for increased volatility nearing the weekly Close/Open timeframe. Observers speculate that the current phase of low volatility may lead to a robust resurgence in Bitcoin’s price movement, prompted by historical patterns of compression preceding expansion.

Analyzing Historical Patterns for Future Implications

Analysts are drawing attention to the impending “historic compression” in Bitcoin’s price, projecting that this could result in a significant expansion. Comparisons to past instances reveal that such episodes have occurred merely four times since Bitcoin’s inception. While some anticipate potential gains, others caution against complacency, perceiving the current stability as a potential precursor to larger market shifts.

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced a postponement in the approval or rejection of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposal presented by ARK Investment Management. The decision comes as the SEC initiates a 21-day public comment period for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF after its publication in the Federal Register. This delay marks another setback in the SEC’s evaluation of the feasibility of a spot cryptocurrency ETF in the U.S. market.

ARK Investment Management, led by CEO Cathie Wood, initially filed for the ETF listing in May, granting the SEC a maximum of 240 days, extending until January 2024, to finalize its determination. Notably, the SEC clarified that the proposal’s approval does not hinge on the regulation of the spot Bitcoin market. Precedent suggests that a regulated market for a commodity or currency spot would be an exception, rather than the norm.

ARK Investment Management is among various U.S. firms seeking regulatory clearance for a spot cryptocurrency ETF to be traded on regulated exchanges. A significant player in the financial arena, BlackRock, submitted its application in July. Several other firms have also modified existing applications to incorporate Coinbase, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, as a partner for surveillance-sharing. This strategic move follows reports indicating a potential SEC inclination towards ETF approval contingent upon such collaborations.

As the SEC extends its evaluation timeline once again, the prospect of a regulated spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains uncertain. Stakeholders eagerly await further developments during this comment period, which will help shape the eventual decision on ARK 21Shares’ proposal.

 

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A New Social Phenomenon Emerges as Bitcoin Enthusiasts “Zap” Each Other with Tiny Amounts. Canadian Bitcoin advocate Michael Degroot is sparking a global trend by “Zapping” fellow Bitcoin enthusiasts with small amounts of the cryptocurrency. This unique phenomenon utilizes the Lightning Network and has gained traction through platforms like the Orange Pill App and Nostr.

Bitcoin tipping, or Zapping, is mobile-first.

Degroot has initiated a Bitcoin-inspired social experiment, gifting 600 individuals worldwide with 300 satoshis (0.000003 BTC), valued at $0.09 each. This movement, dubbed “Zaps” has been met with enthusiasm, with over $50 worth of bitcoin distributed. In return, Degroot has received more than $6 in Zaps from others.

What Are Zaps and How Do They Work?

Zaps leverage the Lightning Network, a layer-2 solution built atop Bitcoin, allowing for instant, low-cost transactions. These microtransactions are typically sent from one user to another in satoshis, the smallest Bitcoin unit.

Users can establish a Lightning wallet and create a Lightning address (LNURL), similar to an email address, for receiving Zaps. Unlike traditional financial intermediaries, Zaps enable peer-to-peer transactions without middlemen.

Zaps have found a home on platforms like the Orange Pill App and Nostr, facilitating connections between Bitcoin enthusiasts worldwide. Nostr, a decentralized alternative to mainstream social media, has embraced Zaps as a way for users to express appreciation and support, transcending traditional “likes.”

Zaps sent on Nostr over the past six months. Source: Nostr.Band

Challenges and Future Outlook

While the Zaps movement gains momentum, challenges from mainstream platforms like Apple have arisen due to policy violations. Despite setbacks, Zaps continue to thrive, demonstrating the power of Bitcoin’s Lightning Network in fostering instant and borderless value transfers.

Degroot’s experiment exemplifies the altruistic spirit within the Bitcoin community, highlighting the potential of microtransactions to reshape the dynamics of online interactions and financial transactions.

 

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Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation between $29,000 and $30,000 has prompted traders to consider strategic timing for their moves. With historical data pointing to subdued performance in August and September and current volatility at a six-year low, waiting may be a prudent approach.

Ark Invest’s report, “Bitcoin – Breakout or Breakdown?” highlights Bitcoin’s recent volatility plunge, suggesting the potential for substantial price movement ahead. This comes as no surprise to crypto observers. However, the historical implications of August and September, coupled with monetary policy effects, warrant attention.

Impacts of Monetary Policy and Fed Tightening

The report underscores the influence of Federal Reserve tightening on potential price deflation. The delayed reaction of the real economy and inflation to Fed actions may impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. The upcoming collision of this monetary lag with Bitcoin’s 2024-2025 halving rally could potentially lead to a more subdued bull run.

While some experts like Morpher CEO Martin Froehler anticipate a resurgence in 2023’s Bitcoin rally due to waning macroeconomic headwinds and the approaching halving event, others, such as Kyle DaCruz of VanEck, emphasize the combination of Bitcoin’s scarcity and expansive money supply growth as a catalyst for a continued rally.

Navigating Historical Trends and Anticipating Catalysts

Historical BTC price data from 2011 to 2022 indicates that August and September have often been lackluster months. August recorded positive performance only five times out of 12, while September fared even worse, with just four positive months. Notably, most negative Septembers saw modest declines, contrasting with Bitcoin’s inherent volatility.

 

Bitcoin observer Will Clemente’s insight about negatively performing years aligning with the two-year post-halving mark suggests that the worst of the bear market could be behind. This optimistic outlook anticipates significant gains in 2024 and 2025. However, Ark Invest’s predictions of potential deflation and recession underscore the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s next bull cycle.

In the quest for optimal trading strategies, historical patterns, macroeconomic factors, and expert insights collectively shape the landscape for Bitcoin investors. As the cryptocurrency community looks ahead, balancing caution and opportunity remains key.

 

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Institutional investors have halted their short positions on Bitcoin, as reported in CoinShares’ latest fund update. This marks the first time in fourteen weeks that outflows into short Bitcoin products have stopped, signaling a shift in approach by major digital asset funds.

CoinShares’ report indicates a substantial weekly sell-off, the largest since increased regulatory scrutiny by the U.S. The authorities began impacting the industry. Despite the pause in shorting, investors have divested over $111 million from various Bitcoin-related funds in the past week.

Altcoins Experience Mixed Impact:

While Bitcoin and Ethereum face selling pressure, certain altcoins are benefiting. Solana, notably, has garnered substantial institutional interest with $9.5 million in inflows, marking its most bullish week since March 2022. Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC) also experienced positive weeks, though with less institutional investment.

Canadian and German funds led last week’s selling, with outflows totaling over $70 million and $28 million, respectively. These movements align with the industry’s ongoing legal challenges and regulatory uncertainties.

Pause Amidst Industry Challenges:

As the digital asset sector grapples with lawsuits against major platforms like Coinbase and Binance, along with regulatory actions, institutional investors have chosen to temporarily halt shorting Bitcoin. The industry’s response to these challenges continues to shape its dynamics and investment strategies.

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