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Cryptocurrency exchange Binance recently announced its upcoming changes to the zero-fee Bitcoin trading program, scheduled to take effect on September 7th. This decision has raised concerns about a possible market downturn, reminiscent of the significant trading volume decline observed in March when Binance discontinued zero-fee trading.

Update Details and Impact on Traders

In an official statement, Binance disclosed its plans to modify the zero-fee Bitcoin trading offering for the Bitcoin/True USD (TUSD) spot and margin trading pair. Previously, traders enjoyed fee-free trading with TUSD pairs, but now a regular taker fee will be implemented based on the user’s VIP level. However, no maker fees will be applied to Bitcoin trades on the BTC/TUSD spot and margin trading pair.

Binance’s decision to discontinue zero-fee Bitcoin trading for TUSD pairs indicates a reduced support for the TUSD stablecoin, possibly due to underlying concerns. This adjustment could inadvertently trigger market selloffs, as seen with similar past instances. The trading volume of the BTC/TUSD and BTC/USDT pairs, constituting 11% and 7% of Bitcoin trades respectively according to CoinMarketCap, could be significantly impacted.

Impact on Stablecoin Landscape

Binance’s move away from TUSD to the lesser-known FDUSD stablecoin is noteworthy. However, FDUSD doesn’t rank within the top 10 Bitcoin pairs by trading volume. Its market capitalization stands at $324 million, significantly lower than more established stablecoins.

The impending update to Binance’s zero-fee Bitcoin trading program, specifically for the BTC/TUSD spot and margin trading pair, has sparked concerns about a potential market downturn similar to the one observed in March. Traders and the cryptocurrency community will closely monitor the effects of this adjustment on trading volumes and stablecoin dynamics.

 

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is getting ready to host the annual Economic Policy Symposium, also known as the Jackson Hole meeting, from August 24-26, 2023, amid mounting concerns about a potential shift away from the U.S. dollar. It’s entirely probable that Bitcoin’s price may experience large volatility during this eagerly awaited conference, going by how it has reacted to US Fed meetings over the past couple of years.

Changes in the Global Economy’s Gears

This year’s symposium will focus on the subject of “Structural Changes in the Global Economy” as the globe struggled to recover from the epidemic in 2021 and 2022. Recent international developments, such Russia’s entry into Ukraine and BRICS nation discussions about possible alternatives to the US Dollar for international trade, have dominated economic debates. The 2023 conference attempts to look into these significant and potentially long-lasting changes reshaping the world economy.

The Expected Speech by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole 2023

The symposium featuring Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is slated for August 25, 2023. Many people are looking forward to Powell’s address because of the uncertainty that looms over the future of the American economy. His opinions on short-term inflation forecasts, the Federal Reserve’s progress toward meeting the 2% inflation objective, and the related choices on target rates will be of particular interest to market observers.

Additionally, Powell will share the stage with Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, on that same day. Powell’s remarks could cause observable volatility in the cryptocurrency market given the recent stagnation in bitcoin prices.

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Bitcoin is gaining traction in West Africa, particularly in Nigeria, the region’s economic powerhouse. Concurrently, French-speaking West African nations are witnessing a surge in Bitcoin adoption, propelled by dissatisfaction with the West African CFA franc currency and increasing anti-French sentiment.

Nourou opens Bitique in the Dakar business district. Source: Nourou

Key Highlights:

Bitcoin Hub in Senegal: Senegal’s initiation of its first physical Bitcoin exchange and educational center, Bitique, marks a significant step. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin Forum in Dakar will encourage open Bitcoin conversations.

Benin’s Bitcoin Mastermind: In Benin, the inaugural Bitcoin Mastermind conference will provide a platform for Bitcoin entrepreneurs and enthusiasts to engage with the cryptocurrency’s nuances.

Currency Critique: The West African CFA franc currency’s colonial legacy has triggered discontent. Bitcoin emerges as an alternative, catering to those critical of the historical context.

Emphasis on Real-World Interaction: In contrast to Western regions, West African countries prioritize face-to-face engagements. Bitcoin conferences and meetups serve as hubs for education and networking.

Educational Initiatives: Bitique offers trading services and educational programs. Bitcoin Senegal’s “Baol Digital Kids” initiative imparts Bitcoin knowledge to children. A growing number of Dakar merchants now accept Bitcoin payments.

Overcoming Challenges: Network instability in the region is mitigated by tools such as Blockstream Satellite, ensuring uninterrupted Bitcoin node connectivity.

Crypto Risks: Despite Bitcoin’s increasing adoption, the allure of swift profits from risky cryptocurrencies attracts newcomers, potentially undermining Bitcoin’s reputation.

Emphasis on Distinctive Bitcoin: West African Bitcoin communities endeavor to differentiate Bitcoin from the broader crypto market, focusing on its unique characteristics.

Broader Trends: The Central African Republic’s incorporation of Bitcoin as legal tender and Ghana’s upcoming Bitcoin conference underline the expanding educational endeavors within the region.

Bitcoin is becoming a symbol of financial empowerment in West Africa, challenging conventional currencies and fostering grassroots education and awareness.

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Bitcoin’s price struggles persist following the recent flash crash, with an analyst eyeing a potential “V-shape” rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches its lowest point in five years.

Ongoing Sideways BTC Performance

Bitcoin’s price remained stagnant on August 22, with $26,000 serving as a focal point for intraday trading. This marks the third consecutive day of sideways movement for BTC/USD. Despite being heavily oversold based on RSI readings, Bitcoin hasn’t shown signs of recovery from levels seen two months ago. Traders have playfully referred to the choppy price action as the “death chop.”

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Liquidity Dynamics and Potential Outcomes

Liquidity analysis of the Binance BTC/USD order book reveals a lack of substantial liquidity, increasing the possibility of a sharp price movement in either direction. The market appears to be waiting to see if more buying or selling pressure will come into play. A lower low (LL) could risk breaching the $20,000 support, potentially leading to sub-$20,000 levels.

BTC/USD order book data for Binance annotated chart. Source: Material Indicators/X

RSI Signals “V-Shape Recovery” Prospects

Analysts point out heavily oversold signals on RSI, hinting at a possible “V-shape recovery” trend. Michaël van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm Eight, noted that similar situations in the past have resulted in recoveries and the establishment of higher price floors. Van de Poppe suggested that Bitcoin could target $26,500 or beyond.

Traders draw parallels between the current Bitcoin price action and that of September 2020, just before the onset of the previous bull market. Some anticipate a gradual upward trend, similar to the past, leading to potential price gains.

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A former Chinese government official, Xiao Yi, has been handed a life sentence for operating an unauthorized $329 million Bitcoin mining venture and engaging in corruption. The Intermediate People’s Court of Hangzhou City found Xiao Yi guilty of both illegitimate business activities and unrelated bribery charges.

Bitcoin Mining and Corruption Convictions

Xiao Yi, previously a member of the Jiangxi Provincial Political Consultative Conference Party Group and Vice Chairman, was sentenced to life in prison for corruption and abuse of power. The corruption charges relate to bribery spanning 2008 to 2021, while the abuse of power charges stem from providing financial and electricity subsidies to Jiumu Group Genesis Technology, a firm running over 160,000 Bitcoin mining machines.

Former Chinese government official Xiao Yi awaits sentencing. | Source: Intermediate People’s Court of Hangzhou City

Cover-Up and Guilty Plea

Prosecutors stated that Yi concealed the mining operation by manipulating statistics and electricity consumption data. His actions led to Jiumu Group’s electricity usage accounting for 10% of Fuzhou’s total consumption. Yi admitted guilt, repented, and returned the embezzled funds. The court seized both bribe money and profits obtained from illicit activities.

China’s Crypto Restrictions and Legal Action

China has banned cryptocurrency transactions, exchanges, and fiat-to-crypto conversions, though ownership remains legal. A recent Chinese court ruling invalidated a $10 million Bitcoin lending contract, citing the country’s crypto ban. Additionally, aiding in crypto-related transactions has led to legal consequences, as evidenced by a Chinese national receiving a prison term for assisting in a Tether transaction.

 

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Analyzing Bitcoin’s market dynamics, the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric indicates a promising continuation of the ongoing bull cycle. The creator of LookIntoBitcoin, an on-chain analytics platform, shared insights on August 22, underscoring the metric’s accuracy in gauging market trends.

Steady Uptrend Amidst Short-Term Volatility

Despite a recent 10% price dip, the Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL) metric maintains a long-term perspective on Bitcoin’s current bull market. By factoring in HODL Waves data – categorizing BTC supply by the last movement of each coin (UTXO) – and aligning it with realized prices, this metric offers valuable insights.

Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X

RHODL’s strength lies in its ability to highlight shifts in Bitcoin’s Realized Value across different age bands. Peaks in younger bands signify a higher Realized Value weighting compared to older age bands. This suggests a willingness to pay higher prices for Bitcoin in recent times, indicating potential market overheating.

New Money Fuels Bull Cycle

Notably, coins moved three to six months ago are on the rise, mirroring patterns seen at the beginning of previous Bitcoin bull markets. This rise points to the influx of “new money” into the market, indicating the emergence of a fresh bull cycle.

RHODL’s Past Predictive Success

RHODL’s past success includes predicting the end of Bitcoin’s speculative investor euphoria in December 2022, heralding a cycle low and a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Since then, Bitcoin embarked on an uptrend, yielding a remarkable 70% gain in the first quarter of this year.

Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart from December 2022. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Changing Investor Landscape

Recent shifts in investor composition show short-term holders reducing exposure to the lowest levels since November 2021. While the latest dip increased pressure on remaining speculators, approximately 90% of short-term holder coins are now at unrealized losses.

The Realized Cap HODL Waves metric reaffirms Bitcoin’s enduring bull market trajectory. Its ability to track market shifts and predict trends based on age bands makes it a valuable tool in navigating the cryptocurrency landscape.

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Despite widespread expectations, the recent drop in the price of bitcoin to $25,000 has made traders and investors wary about taking on new positions. The general mood in the cryptocurrency market is still negative, which is made worse by predictions of a further decline to $20,000 before any meaningful reversal in the price of BTC takes place.

Because of the lack of activity, which is frequently seen after downturns, Bitcoin has been stuck around the $26,000 level. Bulls have set up shop below $25,000 on the downside in an effort to avert a prolonged drop, while attempts to climb toward $27,000 have only reached $26,282.

beginning of the BTC price Bull Runs Occur Despite Great Fear
Experts in the cryptocurrency market are familiar with the cycles of Bitcoin, which are frequently correlated with halving occurrences, the next of which is slated for April 2024. These cycles include times of joy and times of anxiety, which signify the beginning of corrections or bull runs, respectively.

@DrProfitCrypto stated that “the previous bull run in late 2020 kicked off with profound fear during the pandemic and a substantial crash.”

With the selloff brought on by the epidemic, Bitcoin rose parabolically to fresh all-time highs of $69,044.

The trader and analyst continued, “Bear markets frequently start with euphoria while bull markets frequently start with intense fear.”

However, time is what sets successful bull run investors apart from others who purchase at the height of exuberance. A successful method for steadily raising the value of digital assets over time is to buy when the market is declining.

However, very few investors have the courage to buy during protracted market downturns like the current one.

Similar thoughts are expressed by the cryptocurrency analytics platform Santiment, which claims that while “traders hope for market declines to secure Bitcoin at discounted prices, many hesitate when confronted with the actual chance to capitalize on the dip.”

Future Outlook for Bitcoin Price

With sharp drops to $20,000, Bitcoin’s perilous position at $26,000 teeters on the edge. Without a guarantee against losses over $20,000, investors are concerned that these downturns could endanger their investments.

As it continues to decline into negative territory, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) urges sellers to retain their positions. Early in July, when the blue MACD line crossed below the red signal line, a sell signal was generated. This signal was reaffirmed last week, which led to the sell-off.

Another breakdown is expected to occur if bears manage to keep Bitcoin’s value over $26,000. Bulls may have a chance to stop a more significant down to $20,000 in favor of a comeback around $22,000 thanks to support from the descending trendline seen on the chart.

Although the structure of the cryptocurrency market is deteriorating, historically, recovery have taken place when uncertainty is at its highest.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considerably oversold in this situation at 20, which is lower than it was during the 2020 Covid meltdown. When Bitcoin is oversold, it is trading below its true market value, which frequently results in large price recovery. Given the pressing circumstances involved in such situations, it is advisable to use care and to be ready to act quickly.

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The blockchain-focused company “NvirWorld” officially announced its partnership with the highly regarded security platform “CERTIK” on the 22nd. NvirWorld hopes to use CERTIK’s sophisticated blockchain security solutions through this relationship in order to build a dependable Web3 ecosystem alongside its continued growth.

CERTIK has strategic relationships with well-known cryptocurrency exchanges throughout the world, including Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Huobi Global, OKEx, and Coinone. It also maintains affiliations with a large portfolio of over 4,000 organizations. The security assessment and verification services provided by CERTIK are available for digital currencies listed on these platforms.

NvirWorld is assiduously stepping up its project operations, as seen by recent upgrades to its SNS community and expert recruiting. Through a variety of services, including metaverses, NFT marketplaces, and games, they hope to connect Web2 culture and Web3 space. The goal of these initiatives is to give the audience a thorough Web3 lifestyle trip.

NvirWorld has appointed Jason Y., a recognized strategist formerly connected to Binance, as its Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) in an effort to lead the upcoming Web3 epoch in the dynamic blockchain sector. By the end of the month, a declaration about the appointment of a new CEO is also anticipated.

A representative for NvirWorld said,

“As the Web3 landscape keeps growing,’security’ becomes increasingly important for people and things in decentralized environments. Our partnership with CERTIK is a perfect fit for our goal of building a safe Web3 foundation. “Our partnership with CERTIK is not only about ensuring security, dependability, and trust in our developing ecosystem, but also about broadening our Web3 affiliations through this formal agreement,”

Separately, CERTIK received recognition for its proficiency in blockchain security at the CB Insights Blockchain 50 in March 2022. After receiving this recognition, they won the Cybersecurity Global Excellence Award at the Globee Awards.

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Research from analytics firm Glassnode highlights the aftermath of the recent Bitcoin “flash crash” that plunged prices to $26,000. The data reveals that a significant majority of Bitcoin holdings held by speculators, around 88%, are now in the red, following the sharp price drop.

Sensitive Speculators vs. Seasoned Hodlers

The analysis presents a clear distinction between two categories of Bitcoin investors: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). STHs, who retain Bitcoin for 155 days or less, have been hit hardest by the recent price volatility. Among the approximately 2.56 million BTC held by STHs, only 300,000 BTC (11.7%) remain in profit.

Glassnode notes that STHs’ overall share of the Bitcoin supply is at multi-year lows, and the recent price turmoil has significantly affected their profitability. The breakeven point, or realized price, for STHs has risen to over $28,500. As the research indicates, this cohort has become increasingly sensitive to market movements due to acquiring coins at higher cost bases during the 2023 rally. The analysis underscores that this sensitivity is at its highest point since the March 2023 sell-off.

LTHs Remain Steadfast

In contrast, long-term holders (LTHs) have shown resilience in the face of the recent market downturn. Their volume sent to exchanges has not substantially increased, and their aggregate balance even reached a new all-time high (ATH) during this period. The response of LTHs is consistent with their typical behavior during bear market hangovers.

The Divide in Bitcoin Investor Behavior

Glassnode’s analysis depicts a clear divide between the reactions of short-term speculators and long-term hodlers to the recent market turbulence. While STHs are grappling with significant losses and heightened sensitivity to price movements, LTHs exhibit a steadfast approach, seemingly unaffected by the recent price drop.

Glassnode’s research sheds light on the divergent responses of Bitcoin speculators and seasoned hodlers to the recent flash crash, highlighting the varying degrees of resilience and sensitivity within these investor categories.*

 

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Genesis Digital Assets Limited (GDA), a prominent player in the mining and data center sector with a global power generation capacity of over 400 MW, has launched a new data center in Sweden. The move capitalizes on Sweden’s surplus of renewable energy resources, particularly hydroelectric power. The data center, situated near the Porjus Hydroelectric Power Station in the northern part of the country, aims to operate entirely on renewable energy sources due to its close proximity to the hydroelectric station.

Green Energy and Impressive Capacity

The newly established data center possesses an approximate capacity of 8 MW, contributing to an expected hash rate of around 155 PH/s. The facility accommodates 1,900 Bitcoin mining machines, all contributing to the network’s computational power. Sweden’s reliance on nuclear and hydropower for electricity generation, particularly in its northern regions, underscores the availability of abundant and clean energy sources.

Genesis Digital Assets’ strategic move aligns with a broader trend observed in Northern European Bitcoin mining. Sweden, along with Finland and Norway, possesses surplus energy reserves, at times resulting in negative energy prices. These countries primarily harness renewable energy, particularly hydropower. The region’s remote locations pose challenges in energy distribution, favoring the establishment of energy-intensive operations like Bitcoin mining.

Renewable Energy: A Mining Advantage

The preference for untapped, stranded, and renewable energy resources for Bitcoin mining is driven by their cost-effectiveness. Sweden’s ample supply of clean energy further bolsters its attractiveness as a mining destination. The utility of Bitcoin mining is gaining traction among energy companies for grid balancing, a sentiment shared by the CEO of Vattenfall, Sweden’s largest energy producer.

The confluence of abundant energy resources, a pro-innovation ethos, and a robust education system make Sweden an optimal location for Bitcoin mining. GDA’s investments in the region, along with existing operations in Texas and South Carolina, emphasize the untapped potential of mining across diverse global destinations.

Balancing Energy Intensity with Green Initiatives

While Bitcoin mining is often criticized for its energy consumption, it accounts for less than 0.7% of global energy use. The prevalence of renewable energy sources, particularly hydroelectric power, continues to dominate the energy mix of global Bitcoin mining. Norway, for instance, contributes 1% of the Bitcoin hash rate while relying entirely on renewable sources. GDA’s environmentally conscious Swedish installation adds to this growing trend.

The influx of miners into Nordic European countries is viewed as a positive stride towards achieving sustainable Bitcoin mining. As the industry seeks to strike a balance between energy-intensive operations and ecological concerns, the collaboration between Bitcoin miners and renewable energy sources bodes well for the region’s mission.

 

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