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Cristiano Ronaldo, the renowned soccer legend, recently underwent a lie detector test where he disclosed his involvement in the world of nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and hinted at plans for future NFT collections.

The lie detector test coincided with the launch of Ronaldo’s second NFT collection, developed in partnership with the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. This collection, released in July, celebrated Ronaldo’s achievement as the highest goal scorer in the sport. During the test, Ronaldo faced a series of soccer-related yes-or-no questions, including inquiries such as “Will Portugal win the World Cup?” and “Will you still be playing at your highest level in your 40s?”

Ronaldo’s NFT Ownership Confirmed

When asked if he currently owns any NFTs, Ronaldo responded with a confident “yes.” The lie detector test results supported his claim, confirming the truth of his statement. Similarly, when queried about his future plans to release more NFTs, the test validated his intentions.

Ronaldo initiated his NFT journey by partnering with Binance in 2022. This collaboration aims to introduce Web3 technology to soccer fans worldwide through a series of NFT campaigns. Ronaldo’s NFT releases offer fans exclusive opportunities to engage with the soccer superstar, further bridging the gap between the athlete and his global fanbase.

Ronaldinho Gaúcho’s Crypto Involvement

In contrast to Ronaldo’s positive NFT endeavors, Brazilian soccer star Ronaldinho Gaúcho found himself embroiled in a crypto fraud investigation in Brazil. Local media reported on August 27 that Ronaldinho failed to appear before Congress regarding an investigation into a pyramid scheme allegedly linked to one of his companies.

Ronaldinho eventually appeared before a committee inquiry on August 31, vehemently denying any involvement in the scheme, which promised a daily 2% return on cryptocurrency investments. A lawsuit seeking $61 million in damages was filed against the company, with Ronaldinho disavowing any partnership with it. He asserted that the company had used his images without authorization and claimed that he, too, had fallen victim to the fraudulent scheme.

 

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ETF

Several major financial institutions, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck, have joined the race to list the first spot-traded Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) previously approved a Bitcoin-linked Futures ETF in October 2021, the current focus is on spot Bitcoin ETFs.

BlackRock’s Entry and Ripple Effect

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with over $8 trillion in assets under management, filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF on June 15. This move prompted other institutions to refile their spot Bitcoin ETF applications. The SEC formally accepted BlackRock’s application for review on July 15.

Key Bitcoin ETF Applicants

This New York-based asset manager initially filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF in December 2021 but faced rejection in 2022. Following BlackRock’s entry, WisdomTree refiled its application on July 19. Despite facing SEC rejection earlier, asset management firm Valkyrie refiled its spot Bitcoin ETF application on June 21. ARK filed an application for its ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF in June 2021, aiming to launch it on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) BZX Exchange upon approval.

A pioneer in Bitcoin ETF applications, VanEck filed a new application in July 2023, following prior attempts in 2018 and 2020. Fidelity Investments reapplied for its Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust on July 19, 2023, with Fidelity Digital Assets as the BTC custodian. Invesco and Galaxy Digital jointly filed for a physically backed Bitcoin ETF in September 2021 and refiled their application in July.

Increased Approval Chances

Grayscale’s recent legal victory and the surge in renewed applications have led Bloomberg analysts to raise their expected approval chances for a spot Bitcoin ETF from 65% to 75%.The SEC has delayed its decision on all seven applicants, with expectations that a decision may not be reached until early 2024. The first significant indicator of the SEC’s stance is expected on January 10, particularly regarding the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.

 

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Australia’s proposed legislation for regulating digital assets, introduced by Senator Andrew Bragg in March 2023, has encountered several delays in the Senate’s review process. The Senate Committee on Economics Legislation has now provided feedback on the bill, suggesting amendments.

Minor Changes Recommended

In their report on the “Digital Assets (Market Regulation) Bill 2023,” the Senate committee recommended several minor amendments to the legislation. Notably, they proposed removing the term “nonfungible tokens (NFTs)” from the definition of regulated digital assets. Additionally, they suggested excluding specific asset-based tokens like the Gold and Silver Standard and the BetaCarbon Token from the definition of stablecoins. The committee also recommended extending the transition period from three to nine months.

Tax Treatment of Digital Assets to be Reviewed

The Senate report urged the Board of Taxation to conduct a comprehensive review of the tax treatment of digital assets and transactions within Australia. The goal is to introduce legislation addressing this matter in early 2024.

Furthermore, the report emphasized the importance of implementing the recommendations made by the Council of Financial Regulators concerning potential policy responses to debanking in Australia. This issue has arisen due to some banks cutting off services to cryptocurrency firms, which could have unintended consequences such as pushing the industry into unregulated spaces.

Senator Bragg’s Efforts

Senator Andrew Bragg introduced the “Digital Assets (Market Regulation) Bill 2023” earlier this year, with the aim of safeguarding consumers and promoting investor confidence in the cryptocurrency space. The bill proposes regulatory measures related to stablecoins, exchange licensing, and custody requirements.

The Senate Committee’s latest report came after several delays in the review process. Originally expected by August 2, the committee sought extensions to the reporting date, with deadlines extended to August 16, August 25, and ultimately September 4.

 

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OKX

OKX, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, is on the cusp of obtaining a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license in Hong Kong. The exchange anticipates final approval for this license by March 2024, marking a significant development in the crypto landscape of the region.

Active Engagement with Banks

Li Zhikai, the Global Chief Commercial Officer of OKX, disclosed that the exchange is actively engaged in dialogue with local banks. Their discussions center on the issuance of the VASP license and the subsequent commencement of crypto trading operations. In preparation, OKX has initiated necessary technological integration.

Hong Kong made a decisive move towards embracing cryptocurrencies in 2023 when it introduced a licensing framework for crypto exchanges to offer services to retail customers. This regulatory shift garnered substantial interest, with over 80 crypto firms initially expressing intent to establish a presence in Hong Kong. However, only a select few, including HashKey and OSL, succeeded in securing the requisite licenses for retail crypto trading.

HashKey Leads the Way

HashKey, having obtained approval, commenced retail crypto trading services for Hong Kong users on August 28. The regulatory authority has initially limited trading to Bitcoin and Ethereum, a precautionary measure to mitigate risks associated with newer crypto tokens. Furthermore, investors are subject to a 30% cap, allowing them to invest a maximum of one-third of their net income.

While HashKey and OSL have made headway, other exchanges like Huobi and Gate.io have submitted applications for retail crypto trading services and await regulatory approval. Notably, Gate.io’s executive highlighted that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission imposes stringent requirements on virtual asset service providers. These requirements encompass mandatory insurance and compensation arrangements designed to safeguard client interests. Additionally, crypto exchanges must ensure that 98% of their assets are stored securely in cold wallets.

 

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According to a recent report, online brokerage Robinhood has announced a share repurchase agreement with the United States Marshal Service. The company intends to buy back stock worth $605.7 million from Emergent Fidelity Technologies, owned by Sam Bankman-Fried. These stocks were under the US government’s control after FTX and Emergent filed for bankruptcy protection last year. The market has responded positively to this news, with Robinhood shares rising by 2% in pre-market trading.

Robinhood’s Chief Financial Officer, Jason Warnick, emphasized the importance of acquiring the shares “free and clear of any claims” due to the complexities surrounding them. The company plans to work closely with the US Department of Justice to navigate this intricate situation. The decision to repurchase shares from Emergent Fidelity Technologies was disclosed earlier in February and was approved by the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, showcasing Robinhood’s proactive approach.

While the share repurchase announcement has led to gains in Robinhood’s stock, the company faces challenges as retail investors, who were once active on the platform, remain hesitant due to volatile market conditions. Despite these obstacles, Robinhood reported revenue of $380 million for the quarter ending December 31, demonstrating resilience.

The deal with the US government marks a significant milestone for Robinhood in the broader financial and legal landscape. The upcoming months will provide more insights into how these developments will impact the company’s trajectory and the retail trading sphere.

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As September began, Bitcoin’s price dipped below $26,000, erasing any remnants of the “Grayscale hype” that had briefly boosted the cryptocurrency. The market witnessed further declines following the Wall Street opening on September 1st, continuing the losses from the August monthly close.

August Losses and Lack of Optimism

August proved challenging for Bitcoin, as it lost 11.2% of its value, leaving little room for optimism among market observers for a September rebound. Traders and analysts were skeptical about Bitcoin’s prospects in the near term.

In a YouTube update, trader and analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin’s price failed to sustain the gains generated by the “Grayscale hype.” He noted that selling pressure was strong, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) was approaching a crucial rising trendline. Additionally, previously supportive Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) were now turning into resistance.

Potential Targets for Further Decline

Rekt Capital outlined potential price targets for Bitcoin’s further decline, with $23,000 being a favored level among traders. Historical data from on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass suggested that losses of “between 7% and 13%” in September could be expected based on past norms. However, he also mentioned the possibility of a relief rally that could reach as high as $27,200, a level that previously acted as support.

U.S. Dollar Strength Compounds Bitcoin’s Woes

Bitcoin’s performance was further impacted by the strengthening U.S. dollar, which marked its second consecutive day of gains. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) was above 104 at the time of reporting, signaling a continued uptrend that began in mid-July. Market participants remained divided on the extent to which DXY strength influenced Bitcoin’s price, as the inverse correlation between the two assets had been challenged repeatedly over the past year.

The cryptocurrency market faces a challenging start to September, with Bitcoin encountering resistance and a lack of bullish sentiment. As traders monitor key technical indicators like the RSI and EMAs, the crypto community awaits signs of a potential recovery or further downside in the coming weeks.

 

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Bitwise

Bitwise, one of several asset managers seeking to introduce Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. market, has taken an unexpected step by withdrawing its application for the Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Cap Strategy Ethereum Futures Contracts (ETF). This application was initially submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 3.

The sudden withdrawal of the Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Cap Strategy ETF application has raised eyebrows. While Grayscale’s recent SEC victory had boosted market confidence, Bitwise appears to be quietly reconsidering its approach. The withdrawal statement mentioned that the fund aimed to provide investors with capital appreciation, but it also noted that there were no guarantees of achieving this objective.

“The Trust no longer intends to seek effectiveness of the Fund and no securities of the Fund were sold, or will be sold, pursuant to the above-mentioned Post-Effective Amendment to the Trust’s Registration Statement.”

In its withdrawal statement, Bitwise provided limited details, stating, “The Trust no longer intends to seek effectiveness of the Fund and no securities of the Fund were sold, or will be sold, pursuant to the above-mentioned Post-Effective Amendment to the Trust’s Registration Statement.”

SEC’s Ongoing Delays

The SEC has been delaying its decision on various Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications from multiple firms, including WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Valkyrie, VanEck, BlackRock, Bitwise, and Fidelity. The commission has extended the review period for spot Bitcoin ETF applications from WisdomTree, VanEck, Invesco Galaxy, Bitwise, and Valkyrie, as well as Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust and BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. The next set of deadlines for the SEC falls in mid-October, but these dates could be further postponed to the SEC’s third batch of deadlines in January, or the final decision dates in March, April, or May of the following year.

Bitwise, known for being among the early asset management firms to apply for Bitcoin ETF products, had proposed a BTC-backed ETF in January 2019. The ETF aimed to track the Bitwise Bitcoin Total Return Index, which derived its value from BTC transactions on various exchanges.

Moreover, Bitwise had planned to gather market data from multiple cryptocurrency exchanges to provide a reliable representation of the broader cryptocurrency market. The company had also intended to employ third-party custodians for the physical custody of Bitcoin.

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Debates have emerged regarding whether the current state of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, constitutes the “longest ever bear market,” prompting experts to explore varying perspectives on this matter.

Understanding the Definitions

The assessment of a bear market can differ based on how it’s defined. Some argue that the term depends on historical price movement or anticipated future direction, causing endless debates with no clear resolution.

Examining Historical Periods

A historical perspective reveals instances when Bitcoin remained below its previous highs for extended durations. For instance, Bitcoin struggled to surpass $1,000 between November 2013 and January 2017, a span of over three years. Similarly, after hitting $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin didn’t reach that level again until December 2020, nearly three years later.

Reassessing the Criteria

Traditional bear market definitions often involve a decline of 20% or more from recent highs. Current data indicates that Bitcoin’s most recent peak occurred in mid-2023 at around $31,400. With the cryptocurrency down roughly 13% from that level, some suggest that it might not be accurate to label the current situation as a bear market.

Bitcoin price chart between late 2017 August 2023. Source: CoinGecko

Experts point out that taking a broader perspective reveals a continuous upward trajectory for Bitcoin. Amid factors like high inflation, increasing adoption by nation-states like El Salvador, and growing concerns about debt and purchasing power loss, many argue that Bitcoin remains in a bullish trend.

A Matter of Timeframes

The varying opinions on the bear market status highlight the significance of different timeframes in evaluating market conditions. Some emphasize short-term trends, while others view the larger picture to discern ongoing bullish momentum.

As discussions continue, the debate over whether the current crypto market constitutes a bear market illustrates the complex nature of market analysis, shaped by individual perspectives, definitions, and the timeframe considered.

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Opinions on Bitcoin’s future trajectory are polarized as traders assess its price action relative to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $27,180. Some traders see the fact that Bitcoin is holding above this key level as a positive sign, suggesting a potential bottoming out.

“A lot of people are waiting for a better entry, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.”

Bullish vs. Bearish Sentiment

While some traders remain optimistic, others hold more bearish views, expecting a potential return to $25,000 or lower. The diverse perspectives reflect the uncertainty in the market as Bitcoin grapples with its short-term price movements.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart with 200-day EMA. Source: TradingView

Resistance and Upside Levels

Traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim other bull market moving averages and resistances. Some proprietary trading tools indicate key levels to watch, with $27,760 and $24,750 highlighted as potential upside and downside levels, respectively. The balance between bullish and bearish sentiment will likely shape Bitcoin’s near-term price action.

BTC/USD annotated chart with 200-day EMA. Source: Moustache/X

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The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) apparent discount to Bitcoin’s price may be eliminated by 2024, according to a recent prediction. Monitoring resource CoinGlass anticipates the return of the “GBTC premium,” indicating a potential shift in GBTC’s trading dynamics.

GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Grayscale’s Legal Victory Impact

Grayscale’s recent legal victory against U.S. regulators on August 29 provided a boost to the lagging performance of GBTC. The trust, which holds over 600,000 BTC, has been trading at a discount to Bitcoin’s spot price since February 2021.

Recovery from Negative Premium

The “GBTC premium” has been negative for over two-and-a-half years but has recently narrowed to around -17%, down from its peak of nearly 50%. CoinGlass suggests that this discount could close entirely next year, reflecting the changing market sentiment.

GBTC Bitcoin holdings data. Source: Dylan LeClair/X

GBTC’s substantial holdings and its role in the 2021 bull run have not been overlooked. Analyst Dylan LeClair noted that the trust’s actions significantly shaped Bitcoin’s price trajectory, making it a pivotal factor in the market.

Bitcoin’s Moving Averages and Price Action

The impact of Grayscale’s news on Bitcoin’s price action is expected to impact crucial moving averages (MAs). The 200-week and 200-day trend lines, which previously failed to provide support during a price decline in August, are being closely monitored. While Bitcoin struggles to maintain these levels, analysts emphasize their importance for bullish momentum.

Bullish Momentum and MA Reclaim Target

Popular trader Rekt Capital highlighted the potential significance of Bitcoin reclaiming certain moving averages as support. The reclaiming of these levels is seen as essential for confirming a bullish trend, particularly concerning the double-top structure on weekly timeframes.

In summary, the predicted disappearance of GBTC’s discount and the potential impact on Bitcoin’s moving averages highlight the evolving dynamics in the cryptocurrency market. Grayscale’s legal victory and its influence on market sentiment could lead to notable changes in the coming years.

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