The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) apparent discount to Bitcoin’s price may be eliminated by 2024, according to a recent prediction. Monitoring resource CoinGlass anticipates the return of the “GBTC premium,” indicating a potential shift in GBTC’s trading dynamics.
GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Grayscale’s Legal Victory Impact
Grayscale’s recent legal victory against U.S. regulators on August 29 provided a boost to the lagging performance of GBTC. The trust, which holds over 600,000 BTC, has been trading at a discount to Bitcoin’s spot price since February 2021.
Recovery from Negative Premium
The “GBTC premium” has been negative for over two-and-a-half years but has recently narrowed to around -17%, down from its peak of nearly 50%. CoinGlass suggests that this discount could close entirely next year, reflecting the changing market sentiment.
GBTC Bitcoin holdings data. Source: Dylan LeClair/X
GBTC’s substantial holdings and its role in the 2021 bull run have not been overlooked. Analyst Dylan LeClair noted that the trust’s actions significantly shaped Bitcoin’s price trajectory, making it a pivotal factor in the market.
Bitcoin’s Moving Averages and Price Action
The impact of Grayscale’s news on Bitcoin’s price action is expected to impact crucial moving averages (MAs). The 200-week and 200-day trend lines, which previously failed to provide support during a price decline in August, are being closely monitored. While Bitcoin struggles to maintain these levels, analysts emphasize their importance for bullish momentum.
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) August 30, 2023
Bullish Momentum and MA Reclaim Target
Popular trader Rekt Capital highlighted the potential significance of Bitcoin reclaiming certain moving averages as support. The reclaiming of these levels is seen as essential for confirming a bullish trend, particularly concerning the double-top structure on weekly timeframes.
In summary, the predicted disappearance of GBTC’s discount and the potential impact on Bitcoin’s moving averages highlight the evolving dynamics in the cryptocurrency market. Grayscale’s legal victory and its influence on market sentiment could lead to notable changes in the coming years.