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Bitcoin ETF Odds: 90% Bloomberg Boost, 85% Polymarket Drop

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

In a notable development, two influential analysts at Bloomberg have raised the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved in the U.S. to over 90%. This optimistic outlook comes ahead of the anticipated decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Betting Platform Contrasts: Polymarket Odds Trimmed to 85%

While Bloomberg analysts express high confidence, the sentiment on the betting platform Polymarket tells a different story. Crypto market participants on Polymarket have become more pessimistic, trimming the odds of approval to 85%. Approximately $500,000 in cumulative wagers suggest a belief in a delayed or denied approval before Jan. 15.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shares insights, noting a shift in his stance after Friday’s flurry of updated filings. Balchunas now suggests a 5% chance of the SEC rejecting proposals. Previously, in November, he had expressed 90% confidence, citing positive indications from providers’ updated forms.

Crypto Market Expectations: A Pivotal Week Ahead

Despite differing views, much of the crypto market anticipates key decisions by the SEC this week. The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. is seen as a significant catalyst that could attract billions of dollars in Bitcoin demand. This regulatory milestone is poised to be one of the most-watched events in the asset’s history.

Industry Applicants Await Decision

Over a dozen applicants, including BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity, are vying to launch the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Recent amended filings, submitted on behalf of these issuers, aim to address SEC feedback. The industry remains on edge as it awaits the SEC’s verdict on these crucial proposals.

As anticipation heightens and contrasting sentiments emerge, the crypto community braces for a potentially historic moment as the SEC prepares to deliver its decision on the future of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. The outcome could reshape the landscape for professional investors and mark a milestone in Bitcoin’s journey.

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BitcoinCrypto

Enhances Security by Fully Switching to Multisig Treasury via Friend.tech

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

Friend.tech, the decentralized social application operating on Coinbase’s Base blockchain, has made notable shifts in its treasury management and security measures, reflecting broader trends in blockchain and cryptocurrency management. Analyst Tom Wan recently highlighted that in December, the platform moved all earned fees from an externally owned account (EOA) address to a multi-signature (multisig) address. Additionally, it transferred half of its earned revenue, amounting to 7,800 ETH (approximately $16.6 million), to Coinbase.

The move to a multisig address is a significant step in enhancing the security and governance of Friend.tech’s funds. Multisig addresses require multiple signatures to execute transactions, thus reducing the risk of unauthorized withdrawals.

This shift also followed an unsettling event in October when Friend.tech users became victims of SIM-swapping attacks, resulting in a theft of about $400,000 within a day. Furthermore, in November, another sophisticated phishing attack targeted Friend.tech users, emphasizing the growing need for robust security measures.

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BitcoinMarketRegulations

Valkyrie and ARK 21Shares register securities as Bitcoin ETFs with the SEC

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

Recently, Valkyrie and ARK 21Shares filed to become spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), joining an increasing number of competitors vying for permission from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Jan. 4 saw the filing by Valkyrie and ARK 21Shares for an 8-A registration of securities for a spot Bitcoin ETF with the SEC, after the filings made by Fidelity yesterday and Grayscale and VanEck earlier today.

According to Valkyrie and ARK 21Shares’s official files, there is a good probability that permissions will be granted soon as the two businesses fight for the top rank among Bitcoin ETFs in the US.

As the market is agog over the possible approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, the filing is made. The filings from Valkyrie and ARK 21Shares, among others, tell a different story than the rumors of potential rejections.

The cryptocurrency market is anticipating permits to launch between January 8 and January 10. Major firms like Goldman Sachs are vying for prominent positions in BlackRock and Grayscale exchange-traded funds.

As of right now, nothing is written in stone, but this week has indicated optimism over the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. The excitement is increased by SEC meetings with exchanges like the NYSE, CBOE, and Nasdaq, which suggest possible clearance as early as Monday.

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BitcoinCryptoMarket

$1.19 million in Bitcoin is sent to Satoshi Nakamoto’s Genesis address from an unknown wallet.

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

On January 5, an anonymous person started a transaction by adding 26.9 Bitcoin (BTC) to the Genesis wallet, which was the first wallet the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto ever created on the Bitcoin (BTC) network. The wallet is estimated to be worth $1.19 million.

Two days after Bitcoin celebrated its 15th anniversary, at 1.52 AM ET, a transaction happened that was notable because it could not be reversed.

The owner of the mysterious wallet funded it through complex transactions involving multiple addresses prior to placing the Bitcoins into the Genesis wallet, according to on-chain analytics provider Arkham Intelligence.

Unidentified wallet sends $1.19m in Bitcoin to Satoshi Nakamoto's Genesis address - 1

Additionally, Arkham Intelligence disclosed that it had tracked the majority of the assets to a wallet that Binance is thought to be the owner of.

The unidentified sender took out over 27 BTC from the Binance exchange just before the transfer to the Satoshi Nakamoto wallet; the wallet’s activity log only shows these two transactions.

Some people think the Binance compliance team may be aware of the identity of the person who made the transfer to Nakamoto’s wallet because the law mandates that cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance have strict KYC policies.

“Either Satoshi woke up, bought 27 Bitcoins from Binance, and deposited them into their wallet, or someone just burned a million dollars,” jokingly remarked Coinbase director Conor Grogan in response to the news.

Since its creation on January 3, 2009, the Genesis wallet—which is credited to the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto—has mostly accumulated insignificant dust transactions.

Although it’s technically feasible that Nakamoto still has access to these wallets’ private keys and could move the money, most people think it’s extremely unlikely.

The fact that money from accounts connected to Nakamoto, including the funding for the Genesis block, have remained unchanged since the founder of Bitcoin vanished in December 2010 is evidence in favor of this theory.

Initially, the Genesis wallet contained 50 BTC when Nakamoto disappeared. Nonetheless, the wallet has seen a cash influx over time, and by the end of 2023, it will have 72 BTC. The wallet’s balance has climbed to about 99.68 BTC, or about $4.3 million at the current exchange rate, thanks to this most recent transaction.

Following this surprising transaction, many explanations have been proposed by cryptocurrency aficionados.

Given that it happened two days after Bitcoin was 15 years old, some people think it is a memorial to the person who created the cryptocurrency. Some others think it might be an expensive publicity trick or a huge financial error.

However, others see it as a ploy to create a frenzy in anticipation of the expected approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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BitcoinNewsRegulations

Potential Drawbacks of Bitcoin ETF Approval: Expert Perspectives

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

While the anticipation for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval by the SEC has created a wave of optimism, not all experts share the sentiment. Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter and a seasoned cryptocurrency commentator, warns of potential threats that might accompany this milestone, especially in the midterm.

Sell-the-News Scenario for Altcoins

Contrary to the prevailing optimism, Neuner suggests that the market is treating the potential ETF approval as a “sell-the-news” event, particularly impacting altcoins. He notes a significant weakness in various altcoin segments, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. Neuner believes that this weakness is a clear indicator that the 203-day ETF trade frenzy, initiated with BlackRock’s ETF filing on June 16, 2023, might be coming to an end. This, he suggests, could trigger a substantial 20% correction in the cryptocurrency markets.

Projected Price Corrections

Neuner’s chart depicts a potential scenario where Bitcoin’s price could drop to $35,000, and Ethereum might dip below $1,800 in the wake of the anticipated correction. Despite the short-term challenges, Neuner emphasizes that the overall trend remains bullish on higher time frames. The projected 20% correction, according to Neuner, could mark the commencement of the “next leg” in the broader crypto rally.

Bitcoin ETF’s Impact on Crypto Nature

Neuner is not alone in expressing concerns about the implications of Bitcoin ETF approval. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes and Bitcoiner Max Keiser share apprehensions about the ETF turning Bitcoin into a more conventional asset. Hayes warns that it might diminish interest in physical BTC, while Keiser echoes similar concerns and highlights potential dangers to the legal status of Bitcoin self-custody. Both experts caution the industry to be prepared for possible “unwelcome surprises” resulting from this shift.

As the crypto community eagerly awaits the SEC’s decision on Bitcoin ETF approval, experts like Ran Neuner, Arthur Hayes, and Max Keiser emphasize the need for a cautious approach. While many anticipate positive outcomes, the potential sell-off in altcoins and concerns about the changing nature of Bitcoin highlight the nuanced challenges that might accompany this significant development in the cryptocurrency space.

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BitcoinNewsRegulations

VanEck promises to donate 5% of possible spot BTC ETF revenues to Brink’s Bitcoin core devs.

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

On Friday, financial services company VanEck promised to donate 5% of its possible earnings from its bitcoin ETF, should it be approved, to the core creators of Brink’s bitcoin BTC -0.38%.

“Your tireless dedication to decentralization and innovation is the cornerstone of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and we’re here to support it—more details to come,” VanEck said in an article on X.

VanEck continued by saying that it has given Brink a $10,000 start-up gift to help with its operations.

A member of Brink’s board, Jonathan Bier, stated, “I think it’s fantastic news.” “Open source development work on Bitcoin is really important and it’s fantastic that VanEck will generously give back to the core backbone of the ecosystem.”

investigation and creation
Brink was established in 2020 with the goal of advancing the Bitcoin protocol via development, research, and community support for Bitcoin developers. It features a grants program for current Bitcoin developers as well as a fellowship program to introduce fresh software engineers to the field of Bitcoin development.

Brink was awarded $5 million by Jack Dorsey’s Smart Small financing initiative in June 2023.

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BitcoinMarket

Here’s how spot bitcoin ETF providers see the next several days developing.

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

According to three people familiar in the process, prospective spot bitcoin ETF issuers are prepared and able to begin trading as early as next week, provided the Securities and Exchange Commission approves the required papers.

Issuers and exchanges must first prepare some final filings.

A source claims that Grayscale Investments is aiming to file an amended form 19b-4 within the next three business days. According to the source, this is required because the prior documentation was submitted months ago and needs to be updated. This would probably appear on the NYSE website in a regulatory section initially.

According to a second source, the potential spot bitcoin ETF issuers will also need to submit final S-1 forms that specify the fees, list the approved participants, and eliminate any bracketed items.

The SEC would have to approve each fund’s outstanding 19b-4 form before spot bitcoin ETFs could launch. These forms would probably initially show up on the SEC’s website. Additionally, the S-1 forms must become operational. The approvals of the individual forms won’t always occur simultaneously.

“Trading will begin the morning after both are true,” a source at one potential issuer stated.

Trading may begin as early as the following week.
According to one source, trade might start as early as Thursday or Friday next week, and the 19b-4 approvals are expected to come mid-to-late next week. Another source pointed out that since several spot bitcoin ETFs—like BlackRock’s—have deadlines in March, there is still some uncertainty.

According to Eric Balchunas, an analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence ETF, on X, “The SEC is providing final comments right now, and issuers will submit final 19b-4s and S-1s shortly after.” Thus, this is [certainly] as close to being “done” as we’ve been, but as far as I know, there hasn’t been any formal approval.”

In response to inquiries via email, an SEC representative informed The Block, “We don’t comment on individual filings.” “Generally speaking, EDGAR reflects the Commission’s declaration that a registration statement is valid. Any orders issued under Commission 19b-4 will first appear on our website before being published in the Federal Register.”

The development of a spot bitcoin ETF

Several potential spot bitcoin ETF issuers have moved the process along by submitting Form 8-As in the previous two days. This involves Grayscale, Fidelity, Ark Investments, Valkyrie, and VanEck, among others. The action denotes registration, which permits issuers to trade on an exchange following product approval.

Issuers and the SEC have been collaborating extensively over the past few months to address any outstanding issues. Three major concerns have been resolved: which redemption models to use, who can name participants who are authorized, and how to handle hard forks and airdrops.

For instance, during the previous week, BlackRock listed JP Morgan Securities and Jane Street Capital as permitted participants. Cantor Fitzgerald and Jane Street Capital were named by the Valkyrie. It’s also said that Goldman Sachs wants to become involved.

 

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Bitcoin

Celsius will “ensure ample liquidity” by unstaking its Ethereum assets for creditors.

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

In order to make it easier for its creditors to receive their assets, the bankrupt cryptocurrency lender Celsius Network said today on X that it intends to unstake its current Ethereum ETH +1.68% holdings.

In a subsequent X post, Celsius stated that the “significant” unstaking event is slated to occur within the next few days. According to the post, the bankrupt company’s staked Ethereum holdings have given it a source of cash to help with costs incurred during its restructuring process.

In July 2022, Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. This was a response to the lender being forced to freeze withdrawals due to a liquidity crisis brought on by the rapidly declining cryptocurrency market.

Celsius has made its vault available to qualifying users to withdraw 72.5% of their cryptocurrency until February 28th, in accordance with the settlement plan that was approved. In September of last year, the court received a statement stating that around 58,300 users possessed $210 million in assets classified as “custody.”

On September 17, a jury trial is scheduled for Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of Celsius, who was detained on suspicion of fraud and is currently free on bond.

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Crypto Market
BitcoinMarketNews

Bitcoin Faces 8% Slump Amid ETF Approval Uncertainty

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

Bitcoin witnessed an 8% decline on Wednesday, erasing gains from January 1, triggered by growing uncertainty around the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Market Jitters and $500 Million Liquidation

Investor apprehension regarding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF has permeated the market, leading to a substantial 8% slide in Bitcoin prices. This downturn resulted in the liquidation of positions worth $500 million across various derivatives exchanges.

ETF Approval Doubts and Market Skepticism

Analysts attribute the market’s skepticism to diminishing prospects of the ETF’s approval. Options analyst GreeksLive stated, “The likelihood of the ETF’s passage became less and less likely, and the market saw a stalemate.” Additionally, weaknesses observed in cryptocurrency mining stocks and the sell-off of several U.S. stocks related to crypto further fueled market skepticism.

Mixed Signals on ETF Approval

Contradictory signals regarding the ETF approval have added to the uncertainty. Last week, Reuters reported that a Bitcoin ETF could potentially receive approval by “Tuesday or Wednesday,” citing undisclosed sources. However, financial services firm Matrixport countered these optimistic expectations, expressing skepticism. Matrixport stated, “We believe all applications fall short of a critical requirement that must be met before the SEC approves. This might be fulfilled by Q2 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January.”

Market Reaction and Ongoing Concerns

Bitcoin’s value fluctuated during the day, reaching a morning high of $45,500 but later dropping to $40,550. Eventually, it rebounded to $42,200. The market’s uncertainty and the looming rejection fears led to a reduction in open interest by $2 billion, influenced by both BTC’s diminishing value and traders adjusting their exposure on both long and short positions.

The entire episode underscores the cryptocurrency market’s sensitivity to regulatory developments, with investors closely monitoring potential ETF approvals and their significant impact on Bitcoin prices.

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BitcoinMarket

Saylor, a co-founder of MicroStrategy, will sell $216 million worth of company stock.

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

According to a filing on Tuesday, Michael Saylor, co-founder of the American business intelligence company MicroStrategy Inc., is selling 315,000 company shares for approximately $216 million.

Saylor had previously stated that he intended to use the money to pay off “financial obligations” and to buy more bitcoin for himself during the company’s third-quarter 2023 earnings call.

Saylor said in the call in November, “I was granted a stock option in 2014 with respect to 400,000 shares, which is going to expire next April.” He also mentioned that he intended to sell 5,000 shares per trading day between January 2 and April 25.

Microstrategy’s stock closed 8.48% higher at $685.15 on Tuesday, after rising 21.65% over the previous month.

The business is still the biggest listed corporate bitcoin holder. After its most recent acquisition of 14,620 BTC in December, it has amassed 189,150 BTC, or $8.55 billion at current rates.

According to data from The Block, Bitcoin BTC -0.79% increased 0.4% in the previous day to trade at $45,182 at 9:30 a.m. Hong Kong time on Wednesday. The largest cryptocurrency in the world by market capitalization jumped beyond $45,000 on Tuesday, reaching its highest point since April 2022.

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