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Bitcoin ETF Odds: 90% Bloomberg Boost, 85% Polymarket Drop

Market Dynamics: Divergent Views on Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds - Analysts' Optimism vs. Polymarket's Pessimism.

by Alexander
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In a notable development, two influential analysts at Bloomberg have raised the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved in the U.S. to over 90%. This optimistic outlook comes ahead of the anticipated decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Betting Platform Contrasts: Polymarket Odds Trimmed to 85%

While Bloomberg analysts express high confidence, the sentiment on the betting platform Polymarket tells a different story. Crypto market participants on Polymarket have become more pessimistic, trimming the odds of approval to 85%. Approximately $500,000 in cumulative wagers suggest a belief in a delayed or denied approval before Jan. 15.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shares insights, noting a shift in his stance after Friday’s flurry of updated filings. Balchunas now suggests a 5% chance of the SEC rejecting proposals. Previously, in November, he had expressed 90% confidence, citing positive indications from providers’ updated forms.

Crypto Market Expectations: A Pivotal Week Ahead

Despite differing views, much of the crypto market anticipates key decisions by the SEC this week. The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. is seen as a significant catalyst that could attract billions of dollars in Bitcoin demand. This regulatory milestone is poised to be one of the most-watched events in the asset’s history.

Industry Applicants Await Decision

Over a dozen applicants, including BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity, are vying to launch the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Recent amended filings, submitted on behalf of these issuers, aim to address SEC feedback. The industry remains on edge as it awaits the SEC’s verdict on these crucial proposals.

As anticipation heightens and contrasting sentiments emerge, the crypto community braces for a potentially historic moment as the SEC prepares to deliver its decision on the future of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. The outcome could reshape the landscape for professional investors and mark a milestone in Bitcoin’s journey.

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