Renowned macro-economist Henrik Zeberg remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets, foreseeing a potentially significant bullish move. Zeberg’s confidence is rooted in the BTC/SPX Ratio, an indicator that evaluates Bitcoin’s performance relative to the S&P 500 index (SPX).
The Significance of the BTC/SPX Ratio
Despite recent market volatility and concerns about the sustainability of cryptocurrencies, Zeberg believes that the BTC/SPX Ratio is a compelling indicator pointing to the early stages of a Bitcoin uptrend. According to his analysis, the recent downward trend in September may present strategic accumulation opportunities for traders.
The BTC/SPX Ratio is a valuable metric that assesses how Bitcoin is performing in comparison to the stock market, specifically the S&P 500 index. When this ratio is on the rise, as it currently is, it signifies that Bitcoin is outperforming the stock market. Conversely, a declining ratio suggests that Bitcoin is underperforming, making stock market investments potentially more lucrative than holding BTC.
Historical Perspective and Potential Growth
Zeberg’s analysis delves into historical data, noting that a “bull” signal was triggered in February 2023, preceding a substantial rally in Bitcoin’s price. By July 2023, Bitcoin had surged to approximately $32,000. Although there has been a cooling-off period, Bitcoin has maintained levels above the February highs, currently hovering around $25,200, reaffirming the upward trend.
Zeberg’s assessment, guided by the BTC/SPX Ratio, suggests that Bitcoin and other risk assets could experience robust gains in the coming months. Drawing parallels to the past, between April 2019 and May 2021, Bitcoin surged by a remarkable 6X, while the S&P 500 recorded a more modest 41% increase. This historical context implies that Bitcoin may have significant upside potential in the near future.
Uncertainty and Potential Outcomes
While Zeberg’s analysis is optimistic, it’s essential to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets. The BTC/SPX Ratio indicator, while informative, may not precisely predict market peaks or troughs. Past instances have shown that signals may lead or lag market movements.
The question of whether Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this bull run remains speculative. The BTC/SPX Ratio’s lagging nature makes it challenging to pinpoint exact market dynamics. The last bull signal in early February 2023 doesn’t guarantee a direct ascent; there could be further price fluctuations. If the bullish trend continues, BTC’s potential surge could echo the past, possibly exceeding $200,000 in this current bull cycle.