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Uncover Satoshi’s Message in Bitcoin’s Genesis Block

Bitcoin recent stability might not last long, as on-chain data suggests a surge in volatility is imminent. According to crypto options platform Derive, BTC’s low volatility phase is nearing an end, setting the stage for major price swings—up or down.

Bitcoin’s Volatility at Record Lows

Since March 12, Bitcoin has been trading between $80K and $85K, following a sharp drop from its $100K all-time high. The decline was driven by Trump’s new tariffs and disappointment over the U.S. strategic BTC reserve’s inactivity.

Key volatility indicators are now near monthly lows:

  • Weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has dropped to 49%, nearing the 45% low.
  • Realized volatility has plummeted from 91% to 54% since the start of March.

However, volatility is mean-reverting, meaning this calm phase could soon give way to rapid price movements.

What Could Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Move?

Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could fuel BTC’s next volatility surge, including:

  • A ceasefire (or lack of one) in Ukraine.
  • Regulatory shifts under Trump’s administration.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday.

If the Fed signals rate cuts, Bitcoin could rally as liquidity expectations shift. However, BlackRock warns that rate cuts may be limited due to persistent inflation.

Bitcoin’s fate is also tied to traditional markets. If equities continue to slide, crypto prices could follow. A worsening economic outlook could accelerate BTC’s decline, reinforcing its recent correlation with risk assets.

Brace for a Market Shake-Up

Derive’s analysis suggests Bitcoin’s volatility will soon spike to February’s 60-70% range. While the direction remains uncertain, traders should prepare for sharp price moves in either direction.

Whether BTC breaks out or tumbles further, the next few weeks could bring high-stakes market action.

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Bitcoin

A major Bitcoin investor, often referred to as a whale, has closed a substantial short position worth over half a billion dollars, capitalizing on Bitcoin’s price movements ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. The move resulted in a profit of nearly $10 million within just eight days.

Whale’s Strategic Short Trade

The crypto whale placed a leveraged bet against Bitcoin, opening a 40x short position on 6,210 BTC—valued at approximately $516 million. Leveraged trading allows investors to borrow funds to increase their trade size, amplifying both potential profits and risks.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin whale made $9.4 million in profit. Source: Hypurrscan

According to data from Hypurrscan, the whale initially entered the position at $84,043 per Bitcoin. However, as market conditions shifted, the investor was forced to add $5 million to avoid liquidation, which would have occurred had Bitcoin’s price surpassed $85,592. Despite the pressure, the whale managed to close all short positions within a few hours, securing a $9.46 million profit.

Traders Attempt to Force Liquidation

The successful trade came despite efforts from a publicly coordinated group of traders who attempted to “hunt” the whale’s liquidation point. This strategy, often seen in highly leveraged markets, involves deliberately pushing the asset’s price towards a known liquidation threshold to force losses on large positions. However, the attempt ultimately failed, allowing the whale to walk away with significant gains, blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported on March 17.

Profits Shifted to Ethereum

Following the closure of the short position, the whale immediately reinvested a portion of the profits into Ethereum (ETH). On March 18 at 7:31 am UTC, Etherscan data confirmed that the investor acquired over 3,200 ETH, valued at more than $6.1 million. This suggests confidence in Ethereum’s potential ahead of upcoming market events.

FOMC Meeting and Inflation Impact

The whale’s profit-taking move comes just ahead of the FOMC meeting on March 19, a key event expected to provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for 2025. Market participants are closely monitoring the meeting’s outcome, as any shift in interest rate expectations could impact investor sentiment toward risk assets like Bitcoin.

Recent data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a year-on-year inflation increase of 2.8% in February, slightly lower than the forecasted 2.9%. Analysts believe this decline could be a positive indicator for Bitcoin’s future price movement.

Market Analysts Weigh In

Fumihiro Arasawa, co-founder and CEO of xWIN Research, suggested that easing inflation concerns might influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process.

“This suggests that inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions,” said Arasawa.

He further noted that Bitcoin’s short-term performance will depend on its ability to hold the critical $81,000 support level. “A sustained hold could stabilise sentiment, while a breakdown may trigger further corrections,” he added.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

Meanwhile, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, pointed out that market expectations remain largely in favour of unchanged interest rates.

“The market largely expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but any unexpected hawkish signals could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets,” said Lee.

Market Sentiment Ahead of FOMC Decision

Current estimates from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool suggest a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate levels. However, investors remain cautious, as any deviation from expectations could significantly impact Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

As the market awaits the FOMC’s decision, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains uncertain. The whale’s recent strategic trades highlight the volatility of the crypto space and the opportunities that exist for those who can accurately anticipate market movements.

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Bitcoin Reserve

Bitcoin (BTC) regained lost ground on Wednesday, climbing to $82,700 after a sharp sell-off earlier this week. The leading cryptocurrency saw a 5.52% recovery after finding support at $78,258, as traders positioned themselves ahead of key US inflation data.

The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, is expected to influence market sentiment, with investors closely watching for signals on future Federal Reserve (Fed) policy moves.

Bitcoin Recovers After Testing Key Support

Bitcoin had briefly slipped below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85,664 on Sunday, triggering a sharp 9.14% drop in a single day. The market, however, found strong buying interest at $78,258, leading to a partial rebound.

According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin’s latest surge reflects cautious optimism among investors, but volatility remains high due to macroeconomic uncertainties.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Weighs on Crypto Sentiment

Despite Bitcoin’s recovery, broader market sentiment remains fragile. Agne Linge, Head of Growth at WeFi, told FXStreet that the crypto market is still in a “risk-on” phase, but investor confidence is tempered by persistent sell-offs since March 3.

Geopolitical tensions, including US trade disputes with China, Mexico, and Canada, have further clouded market outlooks. Bitfinex’s latest report highlights a mixed economic landscape, noting steady job growth and rising wages but also inflationary pressures and cautious business expansion.

Inflation Data Could Shape Fed Rate Expectations

The second US inflation report of 2025 is expected to show a decline in both headline and core CPI for the first time since July 2024. If inflation comes in softer than expected, it could strengthen the case for multiple Fed rate cuts this year—historically a bullish signal for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

However, if inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed may stick to its restrictive monetary stance, tightening financial conditions and weighing on investor enthusiasm for speculative markets like crypto.

Crypto Traders on High Alert

With inflation data set to play a crucial role in shaping Fed policy expectations, crypto traders are bracing for potential price swings. A dovish outlook from the Fed could reignite bullish momentum in Bitcoin, while persistent inflation risks may push investors toward safer assets like gold.

As the market awaits key economic data, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its recovery will depend on macroeconomic developments and investor risk appetite in the coming days.

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Uncover Satoshi’s Message in Bitcoin’s Genesis Block

The crypto market is in turmoil as Bitcoin price plunges below $80,000, erasing $1 trillion in value within a month. The sell-off comes amid broader economic fears, with traders grappling with inflation concerns, Federal Reserve policies, and uncertainties surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Despite previous bullish sentiment, recent market trends indicate a shift toward caution. Investors are now questioning whether Bitcoin’s meteoric rise is sustainable in the face of mounting macroeconomic risks.

BlackRock CEO Sounds Inflation Alarm

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has warned that increasing nationalism—particularly under a potential second Donald Trump presidency—could fuel inflation. Speaking at the CeraWeek conference, Fink cautioned that trade policies under Trump 2.0 may stoke price hikes, reducing hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

With inflation persisting, the Fed remains hesitant to lower interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reaffirmed a cautious stance, suggesting no immediate rate cuts despite market expectations. This uncertainty has left crypto traders in limbo, as interest rate decisions significantly impact risk assets like Bitcoin.

Recession Fears Weigh on Crypto Markets

Investment banks are raising their recession forecasts, further dampening investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs has increased the odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%, while Yardeni Research now sees a 35% chance of an economic downturn due to Trump’s aggressive policy agenda.

With economic slowdown fears rising, traditional markets have also suffered declines, contributing to crypto’s sharp downturn. The interconnectedness of global financial markets means Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not immune to these broader macroeconomic shocks.

Crypto Traders Brace for More Volatility

As uncertainty looms, crypto traders are increasingly adopting hedging strategies to protect their portfolios. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, highlighted that traders are turning to downside protection amid heightened volatility across traditional and crypto markets.

Wednesday’s U.S. inflation report will be a key moment, as February’s consumer price index (CPI) data could further shape market expectations. If inflation remains stubbornly high, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market may face even greater pressure in the coming weeks.

The coming weeks will be pivotal for Bitcoin and the entire crypto ecosystem. With inflation fears, recession risks, and uncertainty around U.S. economic policies, traders must navigate a volatile landscape. Whether Bitcoin can regain its momentum or continues its downward trajectory will largely depend on macroeconomic developments and investor sentiment.

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Uncover Satoshi’s Message in Bitcoin’s Genesis Block

Bitcoin tumbled to a low of $80,226, sparking a broad sell-off across the crypto market. Leading altcoins also suffered significant losses, with investor sentiment hitting a multiyear low. The downturn has been fueled by macroeconomic concerns, including the potential imposition of tariffs by former President Trump, which has weighed heavily on risk assets.

Crypto Stocks Suffer Pre-Market Losses

The slump extended beyond digital assets, dragging down crypto-adjacent equities in pre-market trading.

  • MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) dropped over 5%.
  • Leading bitcoin miners, including MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Core Scientific (CORZ), and CleanSpark (CLSK), saw declines of at least 2.5%.
  • Coinbase slipped below $205, adding to its woes after failing to secure a spot in the S&P 500.

Investor Sentiment Turns Bearish

The ongoing market weakness has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 17, signaling “extreme fear”—its lowest level in years. This suggests that traders remain cautious, with many fearing further downside.

Outlook: Can Bitcoin Rebound?

While some analysts believe this correction is temporary, others warn that further declines could be on the horizon. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim key support levels will be crucial in determining whether this dip is a buying opportunity or the start of a prolonged downtrend.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Faces Sharp Decline

Bitcoin’s price has dropped over 5% in the past 24 hours, falling to $88,100 after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve failed to meet market expectations. The flagship cryptocurrency had earlier reached a high of $92,790 on March 6 before tumbling to an intraday low of $84,700 on March 7.

Disappointment Over US Bitcoin Reserve

The crypto market reacted negatively to Trump’s directive establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Market participants had anticipated that the US government would purchase additional Bitcoin using taxpayer funds or Treasury resources, injecting fresh capital into the market.

However, Trump’s crypto advisor, David Sacks, clarified that the reserve would be composed of BTC already seized by the government through asset forfeiture proceedings. He stated that this approach would not cost taxpayers any money but left open the possibility of acquiring more Bitcoin through budget-neutral strategies. The lack of immediate buying pressure from the US government disappointed traders who had hoped for a bullish catalyst, such as the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year.

Bitcoin

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Commenting on the development, capital markets commentator The Kobeissi Letter noted, “Bitcoin falls sharply after President Trump signs Executive Order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is because there is no explanation on how the reserve will be funded aside from Bitcoin already held by the US. It’s simply a promise to not sell what they currently hold.”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $3.8 Billion in Outflows

The decline in Bitcoin’s price has been accompanied by significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past two weeks, these investment products have seen withdrawals totalling approximately $3.87 billion. On February 25 alone, there was a record single-day outflow of $1.14 billion, the largest since the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. Another $134.3 million exited these funds on March 6.

Bitcoin

XRP/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

Crypto insights firm Alva linked the latest outflows to concerns surrounding Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve proposal, stating, “Investors are jittery about decentralization. Major players like Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK’s ARKB are feeling the heat with big withdrawals, signalling market trepidation.”

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests it is hovering near a critical support level at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $85,550. Maintaining this level could allow BTC to rebound toward a resistance zone between $92,800 (100-day EMA) and $94,000 (50-day EMA). A successful move above this range would position Bitcoin to retest the psychological $100,000 level while confirming $78,000 as a local bottom.

Conversely, a daily close below the 200-day EMA could trigger a deeper correction, potentially driving Bitcoin toward $81,500 (March 4 low) and even $78,200 (February 28 low). Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted these levels, noting that Bitcoin’s price is at a critical juncture ahead of the upcoming White House Crypto Summit.

With uncertainty surrounding the US government’s Bitcoin strategy and continued ETF outflows, traders will closely monitor these technical levels to gauge Bitcoin’s next move.

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Uncover Satoshi’s Message in Bitcoin’s Genesis Block

The crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) market had another turbulent week from February 24 to 28, with bitcoin ETFs seeing net outflows of $2.61 billion and ether ETFs losing $335.35 million. This marks the third consecutive week of declining inflows, highlighting investor caution amid broader market uncertainties.

Record $1 Billion Bitcoin ETF Withdrawal

The most significant outflows occurred on February 26, when bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day withdrawal of $1 billion—the highest in history. This trend pushed the total net assets of bitcoin ETFs below the $100 billion mark, settling at $95.38 billion.

Key contributors to these outflows included:

  • BlackRock’s IBIT: $1.17 billion
  • Fidelity’s FBTC: $568.65 million
  • Grayscale’s GBTC: $188.84 million
  • Grayscale’s BTC: $147.93 million
  • Valkyrie’s BRRR: $112.84 million
  • WisdomTree’s BTCW: $95.10 million

Ether ETFs Also Under Pressure

Ether ETFs followed a similar trajectory, facing a net weekly outflow of $335.35 million. The total net assets of ether ETFs dropped below $9 billion, settling at $8.06 billion.

Some of the biggest losers in the ether ETF market included:

  • Fidelity’s FETH: $56.30 million
  • BlackRock’s ETHA: $30.16 million
  • Bitwise’s ETHW: $20.72 million
  • Grayscale’s ETHE: $11.66 million

Ether ETFs have now experienced seven consecutive days of outflows, while bitcoin ETFs saw eight straight days of withdrawals before a slight inflow on February 28.

Market Uncertainty Weighs on Crypto ETFs

Analysts point to several factors contributing to this persistent downturn in crypto ETF inflows:

  • Macroeconomic concerns: Ongoing economic uncertainties and new tariffs have dampened investor confidence.
  • Security risks: The Bybit hack and other recent crypto thefts have raised concerns about asset safety.
  • Regulatory disappointment: Some investors had hoped for pro-crypto policies under President Trump, but expectations have not been met.

What’s Next for Crypto ETFs?

While February was a challenging month for crypto ETFs, market watchers are closely observing March trends to see if inflows return. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event and potential regulatory clarity could shift investor sentiment in the coming weeks.

For now, crypto ETFs remain in a bearish phase, with caution prevailing among institutional and retail investors alike.

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Thailand is developing a distributed ledger technology-based trading system to modernize the country’s securities market.

According to a Feb. 3 report from the Bangkok Post, the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission wants to digitize capital markets like bond trading and securities issuance by launching a DLT-based trading platform, allowing securities firms to participate in digital token markets.

Jomkwan Kongsakul, the commission’s deputy secretary-general, highlighted a growing interest in token investments, which prompted the regulator to push for an electronic securities ecosystem.

The planned system is expected to digitize every step of bond trading, from issuance and settlement to investor registration and payments, reducing inefficiencies in the traditional process.

Currently, buying bonds in the primary market can take up to two weeks before they become tradable, while accessibility issues and liquidity constraints limit investor participation. Kongsakul noted that manual processes and paperwork delays add to these challenges, making the case for a DLT-powered system that offers faster transactions, real-time trading, and fractional ownership.

Without disclosing any details, Kongsakul added that Thailand’s digital securities market will support both electronic securities, which are issued and traded as fully digital assets, and tokenized traditional securities.

Firms with existing blockchain infrastructure can operate independent chains as long as they meet interoperability standards, while others can use the SEC’s public chain at a lower cost.

“In the future, there may be multiple chains for trade. Trading through DLT on all systems is connected by a shared ledger, which is expected to be completed soon,” Kongsakul explained.

The SEC has already approved four digital token projects under the new system, with two more under review, including green tokens and investment-based products. The regulator is also engaging with other stakeholders to explore tokenization opportunities in areas like soft power funding and sustainable finance, the report added.

The move fits into Thailand’s bigger push toward digital finance, even as crypto payments stay off-limits.

As previously reported by crypto.news, a pilot program announced by Deputy Prime Minister Pichai Chunhavajira last month in Phuket is gearing up to let foreign tourists pay with cryptocurrency, giving regulators a testbed to study real-world risks.
More recently, local media reported that Thailand’s government is quietly weighing the idea of issuing a stablecoin backed by government bonds. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira reportedly discussed the concept with the SEC during a recent meeting, according to sources from Jinshi. However, there has been no official confirmation yet.
Last year, the Thai central bank joined the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to explore cross-border tokenization projects in an effort to develop use cases in areas such as trade finance.
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Uncover Satoshi’s Message in Bitcoin’s Genesis Block

In February 2025, dormant Bitcoin wallets collectively moved 1,549.25 BTC—valued at approximately $130.45 million at a prevailing price of $84,202 per coin. While this marks a notable redistribution, it falls short of January’s volume, suggesting a more measured revival of vintage holdings.

Blockchain analysis from btcparser.com confirms these funds originated from long-static addresses spanning multiple eras. Unlike previous months, no 2009 wallets were active, and just one transaction from 2010 saw 50 BTC shift. Older Bitcoin stashes continue to surface in waves, indicating selective asset movements rather than widespread sell-offs.

Legacy Wallets Stir, 2017 Leads Activity

A breakdown of transaction activity by year highlights shifting patterns:

  • 2010: One transfer of 50 BTC
  • 2011: Four transactions moving 75.00011 BTC
  • 2012: Two transfers totaling 37.84 BTC
  • 2013: Nineteen transactions relocating 348.5051 BTC
  • 2014: Ten transactions shifting 136.2 BTC
  • 2015: Twelve transactions moving 292.33 BTC
  • 2016: Six transactions totaling 112.65 BTC
  • 2017: Twelve transfers leading with 496.72 BTC

The 2017-era wallets dominated, collectively moving nearly 500 BTC, making up 32% of the total volume. This suggests that investors from the late bull market of 2017 are gradually repositioning their holdings, potentially in response to market conditions.

Significant Transactions and Coordinated Moves

Some transactions stood out due to their size and structured execution:

  • A 2017 wallet moved 222.24 BTC in a single transfer.
  • A 2013-origin address dispersed 185.65 BTC in a notable shift.
  • A single entity, leveraging nine separate 2013 wallets, transferred 90 BTC—each precisely holding 10 BTC.
  • A seemingly trivial transfer of 0.00011194 BTC concealed a larger maneuver of 27.74 BTC, hinting at strategic repositioning.

These transactions reinforce the notion that long-term holders are engaging in tactical fund distribution rather than panic-driven liquidations.

What This Means for Bitcoin Markets

The resurfacing of dormant wallets often sparks speculation regarding long-term holders’ intentions. While February’s movements were more subdued than January’s, they indicate continued portfolio adjustments. The absence of activity from Bitcoin’s earliest years (2009–2010) suggests that Satoshi-era coins remain untouched, further cementing Bitcoin’s historical scarcity.

As Bitcoin trades around $84,000, these strategic realignments hint at possible preparations for future market trends. Whether these movements translate to selling, staking, or cold storage reshuffling remains uncertain, but they reaffirm the enduring presence of early Bitcoin adopters in today’s market.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to its lowest level in over three months, hitting $85,341 on Bitstamp during Wall Street’s opening session on 26 February. The decline comes as market analysts observe liquidity manipulation and the movement of hacked funds, while some traders anticipate a strong rebound in the coming weeks.

BTC Faces Pressure from Manipulation and Whale Activity

Data from TradingView confirmed Bitcoin’s latest dip, marking its weakest price point since mid-November. The decline is partially attributed to the movement of hundreds of millions of dollars in stolen funds from the Bybit exchange hack, which continues to add selling pressure to the market.

Meanwhile, large-scale traders, known as “whales,” have been accused of exacerbating market instability. Trading resource Material Indicators pointed to order book activity on Binance, where bid liquidity suddenly vanished just before Bitcoin’s latest drop.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD 1-hour chart.

“FireCharts shows another nasty rug pull of bid liquidity as BTC price was testing support,” the platform posted on X. “This is about as clear of an illustration of what manipulation looks like you are going to find.”

Analysts See Downside Exhaustion and Possible Rebound

Despite the latest downturn, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggested that the worst of the decline may be over.

“I mentioned before that this is the area for Bitcoin to hold on. Take liquidity beneath $85K, then basically everything is taken,” he told his X followers.

He also pointed to Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which stood at 28.6 on daily charts and 25.9 on the four-hour timeframe, placing it firmly in “oversold” territory. This suggests that Bitcoin may be nearing a point where buyers step in to push prices higher.

Van de Poppe also highlighted a correlation between Bitcoin and gold, noting that as gold prices dropped, Bitcoin pairs began to bounce back, hinting at a potential reversal.

Traders Eye $93,500 Rebound in Coming Weeks

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital has identified $93,500 as the next key level for Bitcoin to reclaim.

“If this deviation is to end up as a downside wick then price could revisit ~$93,500 by the end of the week,” he noted in his latest market analysis.

Bitcoin

BTC/USDT order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X

He drew comparisons to Bitcoin’s price movements after its April 2024 halving event, where similar patterns emerged. If history repeats itself, BTC could reach the $93,500 mark in the next two to three weeks as part of a post-breakdown relief rally.

While short-term volatility remains, analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s ability to hold current levels could determine its next major move. The coming days will be crucial in confirming whether the latest dip was a temporary deviation or the start of a prolonged correction.

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