Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant rally by the end of 2024, according to the latest report from 10x Research. The report examines macroeconomic factors, seasonal patterns, and potential catalysts that may drive Bitcoin’s price higher in the coming months.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, shared that the anticipated FTX payout could serve as a key driver for Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. Thielen noted, “The proposed $5–$8 billion inflow could spark a melt-up in risk assets, particularly as the US Federal Reserve hints at further rate cuts. This could lead investors to reposition their portfolios for 2025.”

Seasonal Strength and Market Trends

Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong performance from October through March, and the 10x Research report suggests that 2024 could follow this seasonal trend. Similar patterns were observed in previous market cycles in 2014, 2017, and 2021. Despite a bearish outlook earlier in the year, Bitcoin’s performance so far has aligned with its typical seasonal strength.

Key Catalysts and Risks for Bitcoin

While the report is optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for a year-end rally, it also highlights several external factors that could serve as catalysts. These include the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, inflation concerns, and political developments ahead of the US elections.

However, the report cautions investors about Bitcoin’s history of sharp drawdowns, noting that managing trades around key levels, such as the previous cycle high of $68,330 and the 21-week moving average, is crucial for risk management.

Gold Surge Adds to the Bullish Outlook

Meanwhile, gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has surged over 5% since September 9, driven by geopolitical tensions and interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve’s recent 0.5% rate cut further boosted gold, which reached a record high of $2,629 per ounce on September 23. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin could also benefit from this risk-off environment, adding to its potential for a strong finish to the year.

Bitcoin bulls are targeting a key resistance level at $64,000, as BTC price performance finally aligns with risk assets like stocks. On Sept. 19, Bitcoin surged to new three-week highs, reaching $63,500 on the Bitstamp exchange, as the Wall Street open fueled further gains.

Bitcoin price strength mirrors stock market rally

The latest Bitcoin rally follows a favorable macroeconomic environment, with excitement building after the US Federal Reserve announced a 0.5% interest rate cut. This policy easing has boosted equities and gold, with the S&P 500 nearing a new all-time high. As stocks soared, Bitcoin also saw increased momentum, approaching resistance near its record peak from March.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

According to trading firm QCP Capital, the recent shift in the US treasury yield curve, an indicator of recession, reflects growing market optimism. The firm noted that the Fed plans additional interest rate cuts before year-end, further driving demand for risk-on assets.

Institutional sentiment shifts as shorting declines

Amidst the broader market rally, institutional investors appear to be backing off from aggressive Bitcoin shorting. Data from CryptoQuant revealed that net positions in CME Group Bitcoin futures have declined by 75% over the past five months. This signals a significant reduction in bearish sentiment among institutions.

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Despite mixed flows in the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, optimism remains high. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe expect BTC to consolidate before resuming its upward trend, suggesting there is still room for investors to buy the dips.

As Bitcoin traders remain bullish, the market now looks toward breaking the $64,000 resistance level, with the potential for further gains in the near future.

Ethereum (ETH) continues to face tough times, particularly in its price performance against Bitcoin (BTC). With Bitcoin’s dominance climbing to 58%, Ethereum has dropped to a new 42-month low, leaving many to question whether this marks a local bottom or if further losses are on the horizon.

ETH/BTC Hits New 42-Month Low

Ether’s price against Bitcoin has plummeted to levels not seen since April 2021, with the ETH/BTC ratio now at 0.03. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, highlighted this worrying trend in a recent social media post, noting a 53% decline since Ethereum’s major network upgrade, the Merge, in September 2022. He posed the question, “What stops this train?” suggesting that more downside could follow.

BTC/USD downtrend. Source: Alex Thorn

Similarly, investor and mathematician Fred Krueger has pointed out Ether’s vulnerability, suggesting that ETH is on the “edge of collapse” against Bitcoin. He also highlighted the uneven performance of cryptocurrency ETFs, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing strong inflows while Ether ETFs have struggled.

Ether ETF Outflows Continue

One of the factors contributing to Ether’s poor price performance is the persistent outflows from Ether ETFs. Since their launch, Ether ETFs in the United States have experienced $581 million in net negative outflows, with Grayscale’s Ether ETF accounting for $2.7 billion. By comparison, Bitcoin ETFs have been much more successful, with 75% of new investments flowing into Bitcoin.

Is Ether’s Bottom Near?

Despite the current bearish trend, some analysts believe a recovery could be on the horizon for Ether. Crypto trader Anbessa suggests that Ethereum’s correction against Bitcoin may be nearing its bottom, pointing to key Fibonacci levels as potential support.

Source: Fred Krueger

Additionally, crypto investor Hedgex noted that ETH/BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) has only been this oversold five times in Ethereum’s history, with each instance followed by a significant price rally.

Whether Ether can bounce back from these lows remains uncertain, but analysts are watching closely.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied toward the key $60,000 level on Sept. 13, following positive US macroeconomic data. The cryptocurrency hit a 10-day high, continuing its recovery that began before the weekly open. Data from  TradingView revealed that BTC experienced a steady climb, driven by growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve might announce an interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting.

Gold Hits Record High in USD

While Bitcoin surged, gold also saw a historic rise, reaching a new all-time high of $2,585 per ounce in US dollars. This parallel growth highlights the current market demand for safe-haven assets amid broader economic uncertainty. Both gold and Bitcoin benefited from increased investor activity, with market participants expecting a shift in US monetary policy.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Traders Predict Further Upside for Bitcoin

Prominent traders, including analyst Rekt Capital, have pointed to key technical indicators suggesting further bullish momentum for Bitcoin. According to Rekt Capital, BTC has rebounded from a crucial support level and is likely to close above $58,150, setting the stage for continued gains.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Fellow trader CrypNuevo expressed optimism, stating that Bitcoin’s steady uptrend is progressing as expected, with targets at $58.8k and $59.5k. Another trader, Crypto Vikings, predicted a “massive breakout” if BTC reclaims the 200-period exponential moving average on 4-hour charts.

Rate Cut Speculation Fuels Market Optimism

In addition to Bitcoin’s price surge, the broader financial market has been buoyed by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market participants currently favor a 0.25% rate cut on Sept. 18, although earlier in the week there had been speculation of a larger 0.5% cut. This potential policy easing has driven risk-asset sentiment, as reflected by the S&P 500, which has added nearly $2 trillion in value over the past week.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

As Bitcoin eyes $60,000, its performance mirrors growing market enthusiasm and renewed confidence in the digital asset’s resilience in uncertain economic conditions.

Bitcoin faced increased volatility on September 12, dropping below $58,000 as fresh US macroeconomic data signaled mixed inflation results. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a 0.3% month-on-month rise, slightly exceeding expectations. However, the annual PPI was lower than anticipated, coming in at 2.4%.

Unemployment Figures Add to Uncertainty

More focus was placed on unemployment data, which reported 230,750 new claims, surpassing the expected 227,000. Despite the mixed figures, traders and analysts believe the Federal Reserve is still on track for a 0.25% interest rate cut during its September 18 meeting, with markets pricing in an 85% chance of this happening, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

European Central Bank (ECB) also took the lead by reducing interest rates, which added to the cautious optimism surrounding Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment and Resistance Challenges

Despite the broader macroeconomic concerns, some analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for recovery. Michaël van de Poppe noted that while monthly inflation data was worse than expected, the overall outlook was positive for Bitcoin.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

However, traders were still cautious, with resistance overhead at $60,000 providing a barrier. Skew, a popular trader, suggested that the market would need much stronger momentum to push Bitcoin past this resistance level. Willy Woo, a prominent Bitcoin statistician, indicated that the market conditions remained indecisive, signaling potential turbulence ahead.

As of now, Bitcoin remains pinned below $58,000, with liquidity resistance building around the $58,500 mark. Traders are closely watching for further developments as US inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions loom large.

Crypto investors may be shifting their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins as a preferred safe haven during times of market uncertainty, according to a report from Bitfinex analysts. The resilience of altcoins, despite Bitcoin’s recent price dip, hints at a “potential regime change” in investor behavior.

Bitfinex’s report, published on 9 September, highlighted the relative strength of altcoins as Bitcoin’s price dropped to $52,827 on 7 September, marking a 10.8% decline over the previous week. While Bitcoin has since rebounded slightly to around $57,001, it remains well below the crucial $60,000 threshold.

Bitcoin is up 0.65% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap

The report noted that Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased by 1.3%, while the market cap of all cryptocurrencies outside the top ten has increased by 4.4%. This shift suggests that investors are increasingly exploring value in altcoins, diverging from the usual pattern of flocking to Bitcoin during downturns.

At present, Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 57.33%, down 0.50% over the past week. This decline has led some traders to anticipate that Bitcoin dominance may be peaking, which is often viewed as a signal to move capital into altcoins.

Bitfinex analysts also pointed out that total Open Interest (OI) in altcoin markets has dropped by 55% from its all-time high. This indicates “speculative apathy” and potential exhaustion among sellers, suggesting that the altcoin market may be growing stronger.

Bitcoin dominance is down 0.53% over the past month. Source: TradingView

Crypto traders have echoed this sentiment, with many agreeing that fewer speculative bets on altcoins point to sustained strength. Prominent traders have expressed optimism, stating that altcoins could outperform Bitcoin in both upward and downward market movements.

As crypto trader Michael van de Poppe observed, “The current state of the altcoin markets represents a period of accumulation before a new push.” This suggests the potential for a strong altcoin phase in the near future.

Bitcoin has witnessed a nearly 25% drop since reaching its all-time high of $74,000 in March. As of September 11, the cryptocurrency is trading at around $56,000, with several market indicators suggesting a further downturn in the coming weeks.

Death Cross Formation Suggests $50K Support

A significant bearish indicator for Bitcoin is the looming “death cross” formation on its daily chart. This pattern, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-day EMA, has historically signaled extended price declines. For instance, a similar death cross in January 2022 led to a 60% drop in Bitcoin’s value.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, BTC is nearing this critical formation, with analysts predicting a potential slide to $50,000 if the trend continues.

US Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cuts Could Provide Relief

Despite the bearish signals, some analysts remain optimistic. Michael van de Poppe anticipates that Bitcoin could recover following the release of August’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. If Bitcoin holds above the $55,000–$56,000 support zone, it could rebound toward $60,000.

Fed swaps interest rate projections. Source: Bloomberg

The CPI report, expected to show a 2.6% year-on-year inflation rise, may also prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, potentially boosting the crypto market.

Yen Carry Trade Poses Additional Risk

Another threat to Bitcoin’s price comes from the unwinding of yen carry trades. With the Japanese yen appreciating against the US dollar, traders are moving out of riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the yen continues to strengthen due to the Bank of Japan’s hawkish policies, Bitcoin could see further declines, particularly after the central bank’s meeting on September 19.

Source: X

In conclusion, while Bitcoin faces immediate bearish pressure, key factors such as US inflation data and Federal Reserve actions may determine whether it rebounds or falls further.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued its downward trend on Sept. 11, with prices falling below $56,000 despite positive U.S. inflation data. As Wall Street opened, BTC/USD recorded losses of over 3%, marking a significant decline in the crypto market.

CPI Data Fails to Lift Bitcoin

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, which tracks inflation, showed a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 2.5% rise year-on-year. This is the smallest 12-month inflation rise since February 2021, easing fears of rising inflation. However, the data failed to inspire confidence among Bitcoin traders, as the price continued to decline, slipping below $56,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool reflected expectations for a 0.25% interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 18 meeting. Despite the increased likelihood of a rate reduction, Bitcoin traders appeared cautious, with popular trader Roman predicting a retest of $55,000.

On-Chain Data Signals Risk-Averse Sentiment

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin has decoupled from gold, which reached a new all-time high in dollar terms during August. This decoupling typically signals a risk-averse environment, where investors shift to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while Bitcoin mirrors stock market movements and declines.

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

CryptoQuant’s report further noted that the weakening of both the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin could indicate broader financial uncertainty. In such periods, investors often flee from riskier assets like Bitcoin and the dollar in favor of more secure options.

Market Outlook

Despite the recent losses, longer-term Bitcoin traders remain cautiously optimistic. Some experts suggest that BTC/USD is still holding support on weekly charts, offering hope for a recovery. However, the overall market sentiment remains uncertain as Bitcoin continues to struggle amid broader financial stress.