Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation around the $62,000 mark is raising expectations of a major move in the near future, according to market analysts. While the direction of this move remains uncertain, traders are watching two key events closely: potential further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the possibility of a large Bitcoin sale by the US government.

Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted in an Oct. 9 post on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin has become “very compressed” after hovering around $62,000 for several days. He suggested that Bitcoin’s next move is likely to be significant but advised caution, recommending that traders wait for clearer signals before making any decisions.

Federal Reserve Cuts and Crypto Market Impact

The US Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis points interest rate cut on Sept. 18 has already influenced investor sentiment, and further cuts are expected. Financial experts predict the Fed will continue reducing rates, with HSBC forecasting a series of 25 basis point cuts starting in November. These cuts are generally seen as positive for riskier assets like Bitcoin, as traditional investments such as savings accounts become less attractive.

Bitcoin is trading at $61,920, down 0.38% over the past 24 hours. Source: TradingView

Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, commented on the broader economic implications, warning that the Fed’s decisions could hurt holders of US dollars. He said, “The Fed has begun cutting rates… those holding US dollars will pay for their mistakes.”

Potential Silk Road Bitcoin Sale Sparks Concerns

Further adding to market uncertainty is the potential sale of Bitcoin seized by the US government from the Silk Road marketplace. On Oct. 8, the US Supreme Court declined to hear a case regarding the ownership of 69,370 Bitcoin (worth $4.38 billion). This opens the door for a government sale, which could impact Bitcoin’s price in the short term.

Bitget’s chief analyst, Ryan Lee, warned that the sale could cause short-term volatility and lead to a temporary price drop due to increased supply in the market.

With uncertainty looming, market participants are closely monitoring these events, anticipating a large move in Bitcoin’s price soon.

Bitcoin has retargeted $64,000 on October 1 after closing September with a record monthly performance. BTC rebounded to $63,778 following a brief dip below $63,000, marking a 7.3% gain for the month, according to CoinGlass. This represents Bitcoin’s best-ever performance for the month of September, often referred to as “Rektember” due to historical price declines.

Strong Mid-Term Support Holds BTC Steady

While Bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 as support, traders remain optimistic. Key support from the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has helped sustain the mid-term bullish trend. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, stressed that holding the 20-week SMA is crucial to avoid a further retracement. Losing both the 20-week SMA and the 200-day moving average would signal weakness, according to Alan.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Other analysts, such as Daan Crypto Trades, highlighted support and resistance levels at $62,700 and $67,000, respectively, based on liquidity patterns in the order book. Roman, another popular trader, pointed out the formation of bullish divergences, suggesting further price gains in the near term.

Buy-the-Dip Strategy Gains Traction

Traders like Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” have encouraged a “buy the dip” strategy as Bitcoin made a higher high above $65,000 on the weekly chart. Michaël van de Poppe also expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, predicting a retest at $60.5K-$61.3K before reaching a new all-time high. He believes Bitcoin is now in a new uptrend, making any dips potential buying opportunities.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

As Bitcoin continues to challenge its previous highs, analysts and traders alike remain focused on breaking the $65,000 barrier and pushing toward a new all-time high.

Bitcoin’s price reached a fresh two-month high of $66,194 on Sept. 27, driven by renewed optimism from China’s economic stimulus measures. The surge in Chinese stocks, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, which saw its best week since 2008, had a ripple effect on the cryptocurrency market, giving Bitcoin a significant boost.

Bitcoin Joins China’s Stock Market Rally

The stimulus measures from China have rejuvenated both traditional and digital markets, with Bitcoin’s price increasing by 3% week-to-date. As US markets digest the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point interest rate cut, Bitcoin has mirrored some of the positive momentum seen in the S&P 500.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Market analysts, including the trading platform The Kobeissi Letter, noted the similarity between current market dynamics and previous bull runs, hinting at potential further price action. Meanwhile, data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows market expectations for another 50-basis-point cut in November, keeping attention on macroeconomic developments.

Bitcoin Holds Strong Support at $65K

Despite minor retracements, Bitcoin held firm at the $65,000 support level. Crypto trader Skew observed substantial liquidity shifts on exchanges, with buy orders moving towards $63,000, indicating sustained market interest.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Filbfilb, the co-founder of DecenTrader, pointed to a “very low” ratio of long to short BTC positions, suggesting an underlying bullish trend. He remarked that Bitcoin’s price is displaying a “familiar bullish smell,” potentially hinting at further upward movement. However, he cautioned that a higher high is needed to push the market further into FOMO (fear of missing out) territory.

With Bitcoin’s price momentum holding strong, many investors are closely watching for signs of a sustained rally as global markets continue to shift.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to encounter resistance, with the $65,000 level emerging as a critical hurdle. At the Wall Street opening on 25th September, BTC faced a dip below $64,000 after briefly reaching a one-month high of $64,795 on Bitstamp.

Despite Bitcoin showing higher lows and highs on hourly charts, traders remain unconvinced of a significant breakout. Popular trader Skew highlighted that $65,000 represents a key area of sell-side liquidity, with no signs of weakening resistance. “Clear passive selling around $65K confirms market views that it’s a real resistance point,” Skew noted in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter).

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

According to Skew, substantial buying pressure is required to break through the $65K level. Meanwhile, bid liquidity is still present between $60,000 and $62,000, keeping the market in a state of indecision.

Market Awaits October Price Movement

Data from CoinGlass underscores the significance of the sell orders at the $65K level, particularly on Binance’s spot pair. Trader Daan Crypto Trades observed that some of these orders were filled at local highs, but the $65K mark continues to signal a crucial barrier to further gains.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Analyst Jelle suggested that a breakout could be imminent, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin’s price action in 2023. “Last summer, Bitcoin chopped around for 219 days, making new highs on 23rd October. This time, we’ve seen ±210 days of sideways movement, and October is about to start,” Jelle shared with followers, hinting at a potential price rally.

Positive Outlook for Year-End

Despite the current lack of upward momentum, optimism remains for those tracking macroeconomic trends. According to trading firm QCP Capital, the influx of liquidity due to central bank easing could drive Bitcoin and other crypto assets higher by the end of the year.

“While crypto factors are not currently driving prices, macroeconomic conditions are aligning to push prices higher,” QCP noted.