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Bitcoin’s recent price slide has triggered over $250 million in liquidations, with market sentiment indicators showing “extreme greed”—a sign that often precedes corrections. The cryptocurrency market, experiencing high volatility, faced a 5.5% drop in overall capitalization, impacting Bitcoin and other major tokens.

$250 Million in Bullish Liquidations

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a nearly 4% price drop over 24 hours, falling from $72,500 on Thursday to just over $69,000 by Friday morning. This downturn led to significant bullish liquidations as investors took profits ahead of the weekend. According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin futures alone accounted for $88 million in losses, while ether (ETH) futures faced $44 million in liquidations. Traders who had bet on rising prices ahead of November’s U.S. elections suffered, as nearly 90% of all futures bets were bullish.

Fear and Greed Index Hits “Extreme Greed”

The popular Fear and Greed Index, which gauges market sentiment, hit “extreme greed” levels on Thursday. Historically, such peaks have indicated local market tops, often followed by corrective movements. By Friday, the index had receded slightly to “greed,” suggesting a potential for further corrections. The index highlights a trend where extreme fear signals buying opportunities, while extreme greed often points to upcoming sell-offs.

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Bitcoin’s open interest—representing the value of open contracts—reached a record high of over $43 billion earlier this week but dropped to just above $41 billion by Friday. This shift often signals a turning point, as large-scale liquidations can prompt a price reversal. The liquidations underscore a highly speculative environment, with traders potentially overleveraging amid bullish sentiment.

Wider Market Retreat as Correction Looms

Bitcoin’s downturn caused ripples across the broader crypto market, with other major tokens like Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) following suit, each seeing nearly $15 million in liquidations. The weekend profit-taking follows weeks of price gains fueled by positive economic and political sentiment, with some traders anticipating Bitcoin’s rise to $80,000. However, the recent wave of liquidations and sentiment indicators suggest a market at risk of correction, potentially dampening short-term gains for traders.

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Bitcoin surged past $71,000 for the first time since June, reaching a new all-time high on October 29 and spurring significant gains across the crypto market. The leading cryptocurrency hit an intraday high of $71,540, edging closer to its March record of $73,737 and bringing its market cap to $1.4 trillion. The rally comes amid growing speculation over the upcoming U.S. election, with predictions favouring a Republican victory.

BTC 24-hour price chart — Oct. 29

Altcoins See Double-Digit Gains

Bitcoin’s rally extended to popular altcoins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Ethena (ENA), Popcat (POPCAT), and Bitcoin SV (BSV), all posting double-digit gains. DOGE jumped 15.1%, reaching a five-month peak of $0.1653, while ENA rose by 13.7%. Meme coin Popcat hit a record high of $1.69, bringing its market valuation to $1.66 billion, while BSV, often tracking Bitcoin’s performance, gained 11.9%.

Bullish Technical Indicators Drive Momentum

Recent Bitcoin inflows into U.S. spot-based Bitcoin ETFs have added fuel to the surge, with a record $920 million entering funds last week, contributing to net inflows of $3.5 billion in October. Additionally, Bitcoin recently formed a “golden cross” on its technical charts—a signal where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, indicating a strong upward trend.

Market watchers attribute Bitcoin’s performance partly to increased predictions of a Trump victory in next week’s U.S. election, with Polymarket giving the Republican nominee a 65.8% win probability. Former President Trump’s favourable stance on cryptocurrency has led to widespread optimism about potential policy benefits.

Global Crypto Market Gains

The altcoin rally also helped lift the total cryptocurrency market cap by 2.2%, reaching $2.51 trillion. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (up 4.4% to $2,618), Binance Coin, Solana, and XRP, also saw modest gains, highlighting renewed interest in the digital asset market. With the election approaching and a bullish technical outlook, crypto markets may see continued volatility in the days ahead.

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Bitcoin soared past $71,000 on Tuesday, marking a significant 5% gain within 24 hours and crossing a critical resistance level. This rally, spurred by increased buying activity among major traders or “whales,” comes just a week before the U.S. elections—a potential catalyst that many in the crypto community believe could benefit Bitcoin regardless of the political outcome.

Short Liquidations Skyrocket

Bitcoin Price Chart | Source: CoinMarketCap

As Bitcoin breached the $70,000 mark, many traders betting on a price drop faced substantial losses. A staggering $176 million in short positions were liquidated, with Bitcoin and Ethereum short traders suffering losses of $88.89 million and $39.73 million, respectively. This wave of liquidations highlights the volatile market environment as traders pivot amid heightened demand.

Strong Buying Demand from ETFs and Whales

Large-scale buying interest continues to come from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen inflows of around 47,000 BTC over the last two weeks. Much of this activity has been observed on Binance, particularly during Asian trading hours, suggesting a robust demand from high-volume players looking to capitalise on potential future gains.

Following Bitcoin’s lead, other cryptocurrencies experienced notable gains. Dogecoin jumped 15%, while Shiba Inu saw an 8% increase. Ethereum gained nearly 5%, with Cardano, Solana, and BNB Chain all climbing by over 3%. The broader market optimism underscores the anticipation around the U.S. election and the overall positive sentiment surrounding crypto assets.

Traders Eyeing $75,000 Target

With the November elections on the horizon, options traders are focusing on a potential $75,000 price target for Bitcoin. As traders weigh the election’s impact on traditional markets, many see a favourable environment for Bitcoin’s growth regardless of the outcome, cementing optimism that new highs may be in sight.

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Bitcoin is currently hovering around $68,952, trapped within a constricting trading range as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming US Presidential Election on November 5. Throughout October, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain momentum above the $69,000 mark, with each breakout attempt leading to a retreat towards a support zone between $64,000 and $67,000.

Political Uncertainty Pressures Bitcoin

The close nature of the presidential race, particularly between Donald Trump, who has taken a pro-crypto stance, and Kamala Harris, whose policies on digital assets remain less defined, is impacting Bitcoin’s price movement. Recent polls from CBS News/YouGov indicate a tight contest, with Harris holding a slight edge at 50% to Trump’s 49%. Conversely, betting markets like Polymarket suggest Trump has a clearer path to victory, showing a 66.5% probability of winning compared to Harris’s 33.5%.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

This uncertainty has left traders in a state of flux, preferring to refrain from major trading decisions until the election results clarify the future regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.

Mixed Signals in the Market

Conflicting sentiments between US retail investors and institutional players further complicate the situation. On October 25, the Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase and other global exchanges, fell to its lowest yearly figure of -0.20. This indicates heightened selling pressure from retail traders. However, institutional confidence remains strong, evidenced by Bitcoin Spot ETFs recording a remarkable $402 million in inflows.

Presidential election winner 2024 bets. Source: Polymarket

Presidential election winner 2024 bets. Source: Polymarket

Bull Flag Indicates Possible Breakout

Despite the current stagnation, Bitcoin is testing the upper trendline of a bull flag formation after breaking through it on October 15. Yet, the lack of strong momentum and moderate trading volume during recent breakout attempts suggest that traders are biding their time for a more definitive signal before making significant moves.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 60, indicating a moderately bullish trend without being overbought. If Bitcoin manages to confirm a breakout, analysts predict a target price around $101,608, suggesting a potential move towards the coveted $100,000 mark if bullish momentum gathers strength.

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MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy has overtaken Microsoft in stock performance, with a staggering 1,570% increase since 1999, surpassing Microsoft’s 1,460% over the same period. This milestone underscores the impact of MicroStrategy’s substantial Bitcoin holdings as the company continues to experience bullish momentum in 2024.

MSTR/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin Strategy Elevates MicroStrategy’s Market Cap

Since its 2020 decision to accumulate Bitcoin, MicroStrategy has become the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with 252,220 BTC, valued at around $17 billion. The company’s recent acquisition of 7,420 BTC in September brought its holdings to over 1% of all Bitcoin that will ever be mined, sparking renewed investor interest. This surge has increased MicroStrategy’s market cap to $43.35 billion, making it the 477th most valuable company globally.

Trading Volume Rivals Giants like Nvidia

The rising price of Bitcoin has also driven a surge in MicroStrategy’s trading volume. On Oct. 11, the company saw a 30 million trading volume, approximately 17.65% of Nvidia’s trading volume, reflecting an increase in investor activity.

MSTR Trade Volume as Percentage of NVDA. Source: Investing.Com

MicroStrategy’s Net Asset Value (NAV) premium recently rose to almost three, the highest since early 2021, with Bitcoin trading around $68,000. This NAV expansion is indicative of investor confidence in the company’s BTC-driven strategy.

Future Outlook: Continued Growth Potential

MicroStrategy’s stock trajectory suggests continued upward potential, fuelled by its significant Bitcoin exposure. As Microsoft weighs a potential Bitcoin addition to its balance sheet, MicroStrategy’s pioneering crypto strategy positions it as a unique tech player with expanding investor enthusiasm.

With a market cap within 8% of $50 billion, the company’s Bitcoin-driven growth showcases the potential benefits—and volatility—of corporate crypto holdings.

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Microsoft shareholders are set to vote on December 10 on whether the company should explore adding Bitcoin to its corporate balance sheet. This proposal, titled “Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin,” has been put forth by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR) and will be presented at Microsoft’s annual shareholder meeting.

Proposal Highlights Potential for Inflation Hedge

The NCPPR advocates that Bitcoin, despite its volatility, could act as a hedge against inflation and declining bond yields. Citing MicroStrategy’s success, which has seen Bitcoin investments yield over 300% this year compared to Microsoft’s stock, the NCPPR argues that a modest investment – such as 1% of Microsoft’s holdings – could provide long-term value.

Microsoft’s Board: Risks Outweigh Rewards

The Microsoft board, however, has advised shareholders to reject the proposal, highlighting the risks associated with Bitcoin’s liquidity and price volatility. In a recent SEC filing, the company clarified that while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are continuously monitored, past assessments have concluded that they do not currently align with Microsoft’s investment strategy.

Though the company accepted Bitcoin payments for its Xbox store between 2014 and 2018, Microsoft has since focused on artificial intelligence rather than blockchain technology. Microsoft states that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are routinely considered but dismissed due to factors such as price instability and security concerns.

The Broader Picture: Governance and AI Focus

The December meeting will also cover executive compensation, board elections, and other governance issues. The Bitcoin proposal underscores the increasing corporate interest in cryptocurrencies, even as Microsoft reiterates its focus on traditional assets and AI advancements.

Microsoft’s decision could set a precedent for tech giants contemplating digital assets, as the shareholder vote represents a growing intersection between corporate governance and the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

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The cryptocurrency investment market has recorded its most significant inflow since July, with $2.2 billion flowing into crypto products last week, according to a report by crypto investment firm CoinShares. The surge was driven by optimism over the upcoming US election, particularly expectations of a potential Republican victory, which is seen as more supportive of digital assets.

Flows by jurisdictions (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

US Leads Global Crypto Inflows

During the week of October 12–18, the United States dominated global crypto investment activity, contributing $2.3 billion to the total inflows. This increase in investment was mainly driven by rising political optimism. In contrast, other regions, such as Canada and Sweden, experienced outflows of $19.9 million and $18.2 million, respectively, as investors engaged in profit-taking.

Australia was the only other country with positive inflows, recording $1.4 million in investments.

Bitcoin Dominates Inflows

Bitcoin was the standout performer, receiving $2.13 billion of the total inflows, with significant contributions from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF, which recorded $1.19 billion in a single week. Ether-based products saw much smaller inflows of $58 million, while short-Bitcoin investments attracted $12 million, marking the largest inflows since March.

Flows by assets (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

However, multi-asset crypto investment products saw a reversal of fortunes, with outflows of $5.3 million, ending a 17-week streak of consecutive inflows.

Assets Under Management Near $100B

The overall market momentum has been bolstered by rising trading volumes and positive price movements. According to CoinShares, the increased inflows and rising crypto prices have pushed total assets under management close to the $100 billion mark. This follows a positive trend throughout October, a month historically known for strong crypto performance.

With growing optimism tied to the political landscape and continued investment, the crypto market is experiencing renewed interest from institutional players, particularly in the US.

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Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 3% decline, dropping below $67,000 after the Wall Street opening on October 21, amid anticipated selling pressure from the United States. While the dip offers buyers what some are calling a “flash sale,” traders caution that further price retracement may still be on the horizon.

Traders Anticipate Deeper Pullbacks

Data from TradingView indicates Bitcoin’s price loss, which follows the cryptocurrency’s highest weekly close in five months. Market observers suggest that consolidation and retests of support levels may now be necessary. Popular trader Jelle noted on X that the market’s slight sell-off was “expected,” referring to the weekly chart as “primed.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Emperor/X

BTC/USD chart. Source: Emperor/X

Forecasts for Bitcoin’s price include potential deeper retracements, with the X account Emperor suggesting that the price could revisit $62,000. They highlighted the 55-period exponential moving average (EMA) and a high volume pocket between $66,000 and $65,500 as key support areas. Additionally, the 200-period EMA on 6-hour timeframes is currently around $63,300, which traders are closely monitoring.

Frustration Over US Market Behaviour

WhalePanda, a well-known commentator in the crypto space, expressed frustration with the US market’s reaction to Bitcoin’s recent price movements, particularly after its approach to the $69,000 mark. “Got to wonder where they keep getting the Bitcoin from to dump every day,” he remarked in response to the latest sell-off.

BTC/USDT order book liquidity for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X

BTC/USDT order book liquidity for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X

Resistance Levels and Future Outlook

Data from CoinGlass reveals that Bitcoin’s price has been consuming bid-side liquidity, with buyers showing renewed interest around $66,000. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, described the current market conditions as a “flash sale.” He emphasized the need for Bitcoin to close above $69,000 to maintain any bullish momentum.

“There is indeed heavy ask liquidity stacked above $70k, but don’t overlook the significance of historical and technical resistance at the 2021 top,” he noted, suggesting that a sustainable move towards all-time highs would require more than just brief spikes above $69,000.

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Crypto Crime Investigation Unit

A key promoter in a fraudulent cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme, Juan Tacuri, has been sentenced to 20 years in prison for defrauding thousands of investors, mainly targeting Spanish-speaking communities in the U.S. Tacuri’s sentencing was handed down by U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres.

Ponzi Scheme Disguised as Crypto Investment

Forcount, later rebranded as Weltsys, was marketed as a legitimate cryptocurrency mining and trading operation, promising investors high returns. The company falsely claimed that it could double investments within six months. Tacuri promoted the scheme through glamorous expos and events, using promises of financial freedom to entice victims.

Victims Unable to Access Funds

Though investors saw what appeared to be rising profits on their online accounts, they were unable to withdraw their funds. Meanwhile, Tacuri and other promoters were living lavishly, spending millions on personal luxuries, including real estate in Florida.

Many of the victims who invested in Forcount were from working-class backgrounds, losing significant portions of their savings. During Tacuri’s sentencing, over 20 victims shared statements about the devastating losses they experienced. U.S. Attorney Damian Williams criticized Tacuri’s exploitation, calling his actions “one of the oldest tricks in the book.”

Sentencing and Penalties

In addition to his 240-month prison sentence, Tacuri, 46, from Greenacres, Florida, was ordered to forfeit more than $3.6 million, including his Florida home. He was also sentenced to one year of supervised release and must pay $3.6 million in restitution to the victims of his scheme.

This case serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of crypto-related fraud, and officials have reiterated that “fraud does not pay.”

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Italy is set to increase the capital gains tax on Bitcoin from 26% to 42% as part of a broader tax reform aimed at bolstering public finances. The announcement was made by Deputy Economy Minister Maurizio Leo during a press conference on October 16, 2024. The proposed changes are part of Italy’s budget for 2025, which is awaiting parliamentary approval.

Targeting High-Value Gains

The new tax structure will primarily affect crypto investors with profits exceeding €2,000. The increase in tax rates is designed to capture more revenue from larger investors profiting from the rapidly growing cryptocurrency market. This shift could have significant implications for Italy’s crypto community, particularly for those engaged in high-value trading.

If approved, the tax hike could position Italy among the countries with the highest capital gains tax rates on digital assets. While it primarily targets large-scale investors, the broader impact on Italy’s burgeoning crypto market remains uncertain. Experts warn that such a steep tax increase may deter investment and stifle innovation within the sector.

Broader Tax Reforms Ahead

Alongside the Bitcoin tax increase, the Italian government is also proposing reforms to the Digital Services Tax (DST). Currently, the DST applies to online companies with global earnings of at least £750 million, including a threshold of £5.5 million generated within Italy. The new proposal aims to eliminate these thresholds, expanding the tax base to encompass more digital service providers operating in the country.

Financial Goals and Future Outlook

The planned tax changes come as Italy seeks to generate £3.5 billion from local banks and insurers to support its proposed budget. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni highlighted that the funds will aid vulnerable communities and enhance essential services across Italy. The parliament is expected to vote on the budget proposal, which includes the tax increases, before the end of the year, with the new measures set to take effect in 2025.

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