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Bitcoin Price Slides Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

Bitcoin‘s price has experienced a decline, breaching the $27,200 support level, as tensions escalate in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The situation in Gaza has worsened, resulting in over 1200 reported deaths.

Key Technical Indicators

Bitcoin is currently trading below $27,500 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the BTC/USD hourly chart from Kraken, a crucial bearish trend line has formed, with resistance around $27,550. If the conflict continues to intensify, Bitcoin may potentially decline below the $27,000 support level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

In the event of an upward correction, Bitcoin may encounter resistance around $27,400, followed by the $27,500 level and the mentioned trend line. The primary resistance lies at $27,800, and a break above this point could lead to a test of $28,250.

Possibility of Further Losses

Failure to regain ground above the $27,500 resistance could result in further losses. Immediate support on the downside is approximately $27,000, or the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level based on the upward move from the $27,185 swing low to the $28,284 high.

The next significant support level is situated at $26,500, and a breakdown below this level might drive the price even lower, with the subsequent support found at $26,000. The Bitcoin market remains sensitive to ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

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BitcoinMarketNews

Hut 8 Bolsters Self-Mined Bitcoin Reserves Amid USBTC Merger

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

Hut 8 is steadily accumulating self-mined BTC as it moves forward with its merger plans with US Bitcoin (USBTC). In September 2023, Hut 8 mined 111 Bitcoin, increasing its self-mined BTC holdings to an impressive 9,366 Bitcoin.

Steady Accumulation Despite Mining Pace Decline

Despite witnessing a decline in monthly mining volumes, Hut 8 remains committed to its hodl (hold) strategy, a rarity among cryptocurrency miners. The 8% increase in Bitcoin mined in September compared to the previous month is a positive sign, although it is significantly lower than the 147 BTC mined in May 2023. Over the past year, the company’s monthly mining volumes have dropped by nearly 60%, falling from 277 BTC in September 2022.

During the month of September, Hut 8 did not sell any of its Bitcoin holdings, emphasizing its position as one of the largest publicly traded firms with substantial self-mined BTC reserves. As of September 30, the company held 9,366 Bitcoin, of which 7,269 were unencumbered.

Long-Term Hodl Strategy Sets Hut 8 Apart

Hut 8’s decision to continue accumulating Bitcoin sets it apart from other miners who have been forced to sell portions of their holdings due to challenging market conditions. Notably, companies like Core Scientific and Riot Blockchain have had to liquidate some of their Bitcoin holdings.

Hut 8’s expansion of its BTC reserves aligns with its long-term hodl strategy. In September 2022, the company held around 8,000 BTC, indicating consistent growth in its holdings over time.

Progress on USBTC Merger and Diversified Revenue Streams

Hut 8 also reported progress in its merger with USBTC, which was announced in February 2023. The merger, set to create a new entity called Hut 8 Corp or “New Hut,” received final approval from the Supreme Court of British Columbia in September 2023.

Hut 8 CEO Jaime Leverton expressed gratitude to shareholders for their overwhelming support of the merger and highlighted that the recent court approval enables the company to advance toward creating New Hut. Leverton emphasized that the new entity will feature “highly diversified fiat revenue streams,” positioning Hut 8 for continued success in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

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BitcoinMarketNews

Bitcoin Analysts Predict Bullish Trend in November

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

Market observers suggest that Bitcoin’s current sideways price action could shift to a bullish trend in November, mirroring patterns from previous cycles. According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences sideways price action in the period from Q2 to Q4 in pre-halving years. He points out that November 21 has historically been a key pivot point for Bitcoin’s price to start trending upward in the lead-up to the next halving event.

Historical Patterns

In the past, Bitcoin has exhibited similar sideways price action before turning bullish. For instance, in 2015, after six months of sideways trading, BTC’s price began to rise around November. A similar pattern occurred in 2019, with most of the year characterized by flat price movement before a late-year surge.

BTC price performance after each halving. Source: @milesdeutscher on Twitter

Bitcoin is currently trading approximately 60% below its all-time high, which aligns with historical trends from 2015 and 2019. Some analysts believe that a potential “dump” or price bottom could occur around November 10-15. The Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in late April or early May of the following year.

Factors Influencing Price

Markus Thielen, the head of research at Matrixport, suggests that Bitcoin’s price surge could be influenced by macroeconomic factors, similar to what happened in 2019 when the Federal Reserve paused its interest rate hikes, leading to a significant increase in Bitcoin prices.

Fed rate hikes and BTC price. Source: Matrixport

While various factors may influence Bitcoin’s price in the short term, most analysts and observers agree that the next major bull market is likely to occur in the year following a Bitcoin halving event.

As November approaches, market participants will be closely watching Bitcoin’s price action to see if historical patterns repeat themselves, potentially ushering in a bullish trend.

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BitcoinCryptoMarket

Bitcoin Faces $28K Resistance Amidst ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

Despite initial setbacks driven by bearish U.S. job data, Bitcoin is poised for gains, grappling with substantial resistance at the $28,000 level. This resistance is fortified by key moving averages, hindering rallies throughout the week.

Resilience Amid Economic Data

Bitcoin encountered a brief dip, falling nearly 2% below $27,300 following robust U.S. employment data that exceeded expectations with 336,000 jobs added in September. However, Bitcoin swiftly rebounded, hovering just above $28,000 at present, marking a 1.5% increase in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s performance slightly lags behind the broader crypto market, as seen in CoinDesk Market Index’s (CMI) 1.6% gain. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also recovered, with the Nasdaq showing a 1.75% advance by the close of Friday’s trade.

Altcoins like Avalanche’s AVAX and Solana’s SOL led the market rebound, registering gains of 6% and 3.8%, respectively. Ether (ETH) also broke its losing streak against BTC, exhibiting a 2% bounce and trading at $1,650.

Overcoming Resistance at $28,000

Bitcoin faces formidable resistance at the $28,000 level, attributed to both the 200-day and 200-week moving averages. Rachel Lin, CEO of decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures, highlights that these moving averages have been thwarting price increases. A sustained break above $28,100, however, could signal a positive trend, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards $30,000.

Bitcoin versus long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds (IntoTheBlock)

Decoupling from Traditional Assets

Notably, Bitcoin is displaying resilience in the face of bond market turbulence, in stark contrast to 2022. Last year, when the Federal Reserve increased interest rates, long-duration bonds plummeted, exerting downward pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. However, this year, even as long-term bond prices decline, Bitcoin continues to climb.

Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, suggests that Bitcoin’s value proposition is being reevaluated amid global uncertainty. This shift underscores Bitcoin’s growing independence as an asset class, with Michael Silberberg, head of investor relations at crypto hedge fund AltTab Capital, emphasizing that this decoupling supports the evolving narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold.’

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BitcoinNews

Concerned About US Government Attack On Bitcoin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

by V. Sinclair
written by V. Sinclair

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a contender for the US presidency, expressed concern about the government’s intentions to introduce the central bank digital currency (CBDC). He reaffirmed that the CBDCs are intended to be tools of power and control for the government and added that he was concerned about the attacks on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Transparency of Transaction
The presidential candidate claimed that Bitcoin might function as a “freedom currency” that is not regulated by any one country. He said that the right to free speech is vital, but so is the right to free commerce. Speaking to Bitcoin Magazine, he predicted that the CBDCs would eventually be used as justification for the abolition of fiat money. He claimed that because the government can program the CBDCs, they will be managed in a way that prevents people from spending as they choose.

“I am opposed to CBDCs. They’ll probably end up being used as a tool of control.

Kennedy Jr. made headlines in July 2023 when it was revealed that he had purchased 2 Bitcoin for each of his 7 children. He is well known for supporting cryptocurrencies as instruments that may help the poor escape poverty and for suggesting a number of regulatory steps to promote the usage of Bitcoin.

a risk to the US dollar

According to Kennedy Jr., given the BRICS Group’s rapid expansion, the future of the US dollar is doubtful. The member nations of the group do not have their own reserve currency, but they do permit transactions to be settled in local currencies, which jeopardizes the dollar’s position as the world reserve currency, according to the presidential contender.

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BitcoinMarket

Bitcoin Outperforms US Dollar Against “Eggflation” – Federal Reserve Data Reveals

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

In an unexpected revelation, the Federal Reserve highlights that Bitcoin is proving to be a better hedge against inflation than the US dollar, albeit unintentionally. The St. Louis Fed, in a blog post originally published in June 2022 and recently updated, explores the comparative purchasing power of Bitcoin and the US dollar using a rather unconventional benchmark – buying eggs.

Bitcoin vs. US Dollar: The Curious Case of “Eggflation”

While Bitcoin enthusiasts typically have more ambitious uses for their holdings than buying eggs, the Federal Reserve’s blog post delves into this unique comparison. The anonymous author of the post tracked the price of a dozen eggs in Bitcoin (measured in satoshis) and in US dollars since January 2021.

Average price of a dozen eggs in satoshis chart (screenshot). Source: St. Louis Fed

The findings reveal significant price fluctuations in Bitcoin, ranging from 2829 to 6086 satoshis, far more volatile than the USD price of eggs. Additionally, the blog notes the need to factor in Bitcoin transaction fees, which can vary from a reasonable $2 to occasionally spiking above $50.

Bitcoin’s Performance Over Time

Despite the inherent volatility, the data charts demonstrate that since reaching their respective peaks in December 2022, the number of satoshis required to purchase a dozen eggs has decreased more significantly compared to the equivalent USD price. As of August 2023, Bitcoin holders need 70% fewer satoshis for the purchase, while USD holders require 58% less.

Average price of a dozen eggs in USD chart (screenshot). Source: St. Louis Fed

However, a broader perspective reveals that the cost of eggs has increased for both currencies since the beginning of 2021, with a 73% increase for USD and a 39% increase for Bitcoin. Yet, this specific timeframe doesn’t offer a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s performance.

Long-Term Perspective on Bitcoin

A more insightful assessment comes when examining Bitcoin’s performance over the years. The price of eggs remains substantially lower than during Bitcoin’s last pre-halving year in 2019, with the 2023 “Eggflation” appearing as a minor blip.

In contrast, the US dollar has witnessed significant price increases in terms of egg purchases, with the average price per dozen barely exceeding $1.20 in mid-2019, representing a 40% increase compared to today.

Concerns of a Looming Recession

The article also touches upon the growing attention to the US dollar this month, as the US dollar index (DXY) approaches one-year highs. Some analysts suggest that actions by foreign states may attempt to address the currency imbalances they are facing, while the US economy exhibits warning signs of a possible recession in 2024, as indicated by the Fed’s data, with odds nearing 60% as of September.

In addition, bond yields are rising in what is referred to as “bear steepening,” further highlighting economic uncertainties on the horizon.

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BitcoinCryptoMarket

Economist Foresees a Potential “Monster” Move for Bitcoin, Aiming for $200,000

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

Renowned macro-economist Henrik Zeberg remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets, foreseeing a potentially significant bullish move. Zeberg’s confidence is rooted in the BTC/SPX Ratio, an indicator that evaluates Bitcoin’s performance relative to the S&P 500 index (SPX).

The Significance of the BTC/SPX Ratio

Despite recent market volatility and concerns about the sustainability of cryptocurrencies, Zeberg believes that the BTC/SPX Ratio is a compelling indicator pointing to the early stages of a Bitcoin uptrend. According to his analysis, the recent downward trend in September may present strategic accumulation opportunities for traders.

The BTC/SPX Ratio is a valuable metric that assesses how Bitcoin is performing in comparison to the stock market, specifically the S&P 500 index. When this ratio is on the rise, as it currently is, it signifies that Bitcoin is outperforming the stock market. Conversely, a declining ratio suggests that Bitcoin is underperforming, making stock market investments potentially more lucrative than holding BTC.

Historical Perspective and Potential Growth

Zeberg’s analysis delves into historical data, noting that a “bull” signal was triggered in February 2023, preceding a substantial rally in Bitcoin’s price. By July 2023, Bitcoin had surged to approximately $32,000. Although there has been a cooling-off period, Bitcoin has maintained levels above the February highs, currently hovering around $25,200, reaffirming the upward trend.

Zeberg’s assessment, guided by the BTC/SPX Ratio, suggests that Bitcoin and other risk assets could experience robust gains in the coming months. Drawing parallels to the past, between April 2019 and May 2021, Bitcoin surged by a remarkable 6X, while the S&P 500 recorded a more modest 41% increase. This historical context implies that Bitcoin may have significant upside potential in the near future.

Uncertainty and Potential Outcomes

While Zeberg’s analysis is optimistic, it’s essential to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets. The BTC/SPX Ratio indicator, while informative, may not precisely predict market peaks or troughs. Past instances have shown that signals may lead or lag market movements.

The question of whether Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this bull run remains speculative. The BTC/SPX Ratio’s lagging nature makes it challenging to pinpoint exact market dynamics. The last bull signal in early February 2023 doesn’t guarantee a direct ascent; there could be further price fluctuations. If the bullish trend continues, BTC’s potential surge could echo the past, possibly exceeding $200,000 in this current bull cycle.

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BitcoinNews

Brazil’s BTG Pactual Acquires Orama, Boosting Digital Expansion

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

BTG Pactual, known for its commitment to cryptocurrency services for customers, has entered into an agreement to purchase 100% of Orama’s shares, valued at 500 million Brazilian reais. This acquisition, subject to regulatory approvals, including from Brazil’s central bank, underscores BTG Pactual’s commitment to expanding its digital platforms and providing more diverse investment opportunities.

Marcelo Flora, BTG Pactual’s digital platforms partner, expressed excitement about the acquisition, highlighting the prospect of granting Orama customers access to the comprehensive BTG platform.

Orama’s Profile

Founded in 2011, Orama boasts nearly 18 billion Brazilian reais in assets under custody and serves approximately 360,000 customers. While Orama primarily focuses on distributing investment funds and fixed-income products, it has also ventured into cryptocurrency investments.

Block3 Ativos Digitais FIM IE one-year price chart. Source: Bloomberg

In April 2022, Orama’s wealth management arm, Orama Singular, introduced the Block3 fund—an actively managed fund centered on digital assets. Block3 offers investors a diverse portfolio within the cryptocurrency industry, encompassing Bitcoin, tokens, derivatives, and more.

Notably, Orama’s digital asset fund has exhibited remarkable growth over the past year. It surged by over 30%, rising from 90.5 reais in October 2022 to 118.8 reais in September 2023, as reported by Bloomberg.

The Crypto Horizon for BTG Pactual

While the implications of BTG Pactual’s acquisition of Orama in terms of new crypto-related products remain uncertain, the bank has been actively involved in the crypto space in recent years. In April 2023, BTG Pactual revealed its intentions to launch BTG Dol—a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio, utilizing the bank’s custody services.

Additionally, BTG Pactual previously introduced a crypto trading app that enables its customers to directly invest in cryptocurrencies, solidifying its presence in the growing digital asset landscape.

BTG Pactual’s foray into the world of cryptocurrency reflects the evolving financial landscape, where traditional institutions are increasingly recognizing the value and potential of digital assets in their investment portfolios and service offerings.

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BitcoinMarketNews

Bitcoin Price Sees Technical Correction, Yet Bullish Momentum Persists

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

Bitcoin’s price recently surged towards the critical $28,500 resistance level, marking a significant uptrend. However, a corrective phase ensued, and BTC currently finds support at $27,350.

Steady Climb Above Key Levels

BTC displayed a steady ascent, surpassing both the $28,000 and $28,200 resistance barriers. The cryptocurrency even ventured to test the $28,500 mark, achieving a multi-week high of approximately $28,565. Subsequently, a downward correction ensued.

Despite the correction, Bitcoin continues to trade above the crucial $27,400 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA). Furthermore, an important bullish trend line is forming, with support at approximately $27,400, as indicated on the BTC/USD hourly chart.

Upside Potential

Immediate resistance is anticipated around the $27,850 level, with the next significant hurdle lying at $28,000. A successful breach of the $28,000 resistance may trigger another upward move. In such a scenario, Bitcoin’s price could set its sights on the $28,500 resistance, with the possibility of an ascent toward the $29,200 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Potential Downside Scenarios

In the event that Bitcoin struggles to overcome the $28,000 resistance, it may experience further declines. Initial support is situated at approximately $27,400, closely aligned with the aforementioned bullish trend line. Subsequently, the $27,250 level and the 100-hourly SMA represent pivotal support zones. A sustained breach and closure below $27,250 could lead to a descent toward $26,800, with the next support resting at $26,650. Further losses may result in a test of the $26,000 level.

While Bitcoin recently underwent a technical correction, it remains above key support levels and maintains bullish momentum. Traders and investors are closely monitoring the $28,000 resistance level, as a successful breach could usher in a new uptrend. Conversely, the cryptocurrency has crucial support zones to cushion potential downward movements.

 

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BitcoinMarket

BTC’s ‘Uptober’ Surge: 5 Key Insights for Bitcoin Enthusiasts

by Isaac lane
written by Isaac lane

BTC started a new week, month, and quarter with a robust upward movement, breaching the $28,000 mark. The cryptocurrency community welcomes “Uptober” with optimism as BTC records its best weekly close since mid-August.

October’s Historical Significance

Historically, October has witnessed significant price gains for BTC. Enthusiasts are eager to see if this trend continues, given the positive start to the month.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

October’s macroeconomic data in the United States appears to be in a quiet phase, and the government has averted a shutdown, reducing immediate macro triggers. Bitcoin’s performance may not be significantly impacted by macroeconomic factors at this juncture.

While BTC’s spot price exhibits bullish momentum, its fundamentals do not entirely mirror this enthusiasm. Bitcoin mining difficulty is poised to decrease by 0.7% at the next automated readjustment on October 2, marking a shift from the recent trend.

Bitcoin bulls are cautiously optimistic as the cryptocurrency surged to nearly $28,000. However, some traders anticipate a potential retracement. The market’s direction now depends on spot traders’ actions.

Classic “Uptober” or Something Different?

This year’s October appears distinct from the previous year, as BTC exhibits a strong start. In 2021, October began with a slight dip and ultimately led to a sideways month. This year’s “Uptober” resembles the more traditional October patterns seen in previous years.

BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Keith Alan/X

Traders are suggesting that Bitcoin has broken its mid-term downtrend, retested it, and is now embarking on the next upward leg. Many anticipate further price increases, with some even speculating a move beyond $30,000, a level not seen since June.

Historical Positivity in October

Data reveals that in eight out of the previous ten Octobers, Bitcoin has shown positive performance, with average returns of approximately 22%.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

In a departure from recent norms, Bitcoin network fundamentals do not align with the bullish sentiment in spot markets. Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is set to decrease by 0.7% in the upcoming automated readjustment on October 2.

As Bitcoin enthusiasts navigate the month of “Uptober,” they remain cautiously optimistic, closely monitoring both price movements and fundamental shifts in the cryptocurrency landscape.

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