Bitcoin

According to three people familiar in the process, prospective spot bitcoin ETF issuers are prepared and able to begin trading as early as next week, provided the Securities and Exchange Commission approves the required papers.

Issuers and exchanges must first prepare some final filings.

A source claims that Grayscale Investments is aiming to file an amended form 19b-4 within the next three business days. According to the source, this is required because the prior documentation was submitted months ago and needs to be updated. This would probably appear on the NYSE website in a regulatory section initially.

According to a second source, the potential spot bitcoin ETF issuers will also need to submit final S-1 forms that specify the fees, list the approved participants, and eliminate any bracketed items.

The SEC would have to approve each fund’s outstanding 19b-4 form before spot bitcoin ETFs could launch. These forms would probably initially show up on the SEC’s website. Additionally, the S-1 forms must become operational. The approvals of the individual forms won’t always occur simultaneously.

“Trading will begin the morning after both are true,” a source at one potential issuer stated.

Trading may begin as early as the following week.
According to one source, trade might start as early as Thursday or Friday next week, and the 19b-4 approvals are expected to come mid-to-late next week. Another source pointed out that since several spot bitcoin ETFs—like BlackRock’s—have deadlines in March, there is still some uncertainty.

According to Eric Balchunas, an analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence ETF, on X, “The SEC is providing final comments right now, and issuers will submit final 19b-4s and S-1s shortly after.” Thus, this is [certainly] as close to being “done” as we’ve been, but as far as I know, there hasn’t been any formal approval.”

In response to inquiries via email, an SEC representative informed The Block, “We don’t comment on individual filings.” “Generally speaking, EDGAR reflects the Commission’s declaration that a registration statement is valid. Any orders issued under Commission 19b-4 will first appear on our website before being published in the Federal Register.”

The development of a spot bitcoin ETF

Several potential spot bitcoin ETF issuers have moved the process along by submitting Form 8-As in the previous two days. This involves Grayscale, Fidelity, Ark Investments, Valkyrie, and VanEck, among others. The action denotes registration, which permits issuers to trade on an exchange following product approval.

Issuers and the SEC have been collaborating extensively over the past few months to address any outstanding issues. Three major concerns have been resolved: which redemption models to use, who can name participants who are authorized, and how to handle hard forks and airdrops.

For instance, during the previous week, BlackRock listed JP Morgan Securities and Jane Street Capital as permitted participants. Cantor Fitzgerald and Jane Street Capital were named by the Valkyrie. It’s also said that Goldman Sachs wants to become involved.

According to a filing on Tuesday, Michael Saylor, co-founder of the American business intelligence company MicroStrategy Inc., is selling 315,000 company shares for approximately $216 million.

Saylor had previously stated that he intended to use the money to pay off “financial obligations” and to buy more bitcoin for himself during the company’s third-quarter 2023 earnings call.

Saylor said in the call in November, “I was granted a stock option in 2014 with respect to 400,000 shares, which is going to expire next April.” He also mentioned that he intended to sell 5,000 shares per trading day between January 2 and April 25.

Microstrategy’s stock closed 8.48% higher at $685.15 on Tuesday, after rising 21.65% over the previous month.

The business is still the biggest listed corporate bitcoin holder. After its most recent acquisition of 14,620 BTC in December, it has amassed 189,150 BTC, or $8.55 billion at current rates.

According to data from The Block, Bitcoin BTC -0.79% increased 0.4% in the previous day to trade at $45,182 at 9:30 a.m. Hong Kong time on Wednesday. The largest cryptocurrency in the world by market capitalization jumped beyond $45,000 on Tuesday, reaching its highest point since April 2022.

Wall Street may be about to get much more orange, so get ready, cryptocurrency fans. There are rumors circulating within the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the much anticipated approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF may occur as soon as this Wednesday, which would be a major blow to the financial industry.

Although the SEC has not commented publicly, those with knowledge of the situation claim that internal conversations have changed and that there is now a growing consensus to approve one or more spot Bitcoin ETF applications. This would finally give Bitcoin legitimacy in the eyes of established financial institutions, causing a seismic upheaval in the regulatory environment and opening the door for mainstream investment.

Unlike their US counterparts based on futures, spot ETFs monitor the underlying price of an asset directly. This distinction is important because some have argued that investors may be exposed to manipulation and tracking problems when using futures ETFs. On the other hand, a spot ETF would provide a more direct means of being exposed to fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, which would draw in a large number of institutional investors who have refrained from investing in it thus far.

One cannot overestimate the possible significance of this news. Experts forecast a spike in Bitcoin values as institutional money pours into the market in an attempt to partake in the digital gold rush. To meet the growing demand, conventional financial companies may rush to offer Bitcoin-related goods and services. Even doubters admit the potential for transformational impact of a spot ETF, with some even speculating that it would open the door for Wall Street to accept cryptocurrencies more widely.

Naturally, there are still challenges to face. Even if the SEC’s ultimate ruling is accepted, individual ETF applications might still need to pass additional examination. Moreover, regulatory worries about Bitcoin’s volatility and money-laundering possibilities may make some institutional investors less enthusiastic.

Still, the anticipation of a possible approval is enough to get the cryptocurrency world fired up. With evidence of a bullish uptick in Bitcoin price charts, social media is a hive of activity. Wednesday might be a momentous day for Bitcoin if the SEC’s ruling turns out as expected. It could usher in a new era of widespread acceptance and could change the financial landscape for years to come.

Thus, investors, fasten your seatbelts and get ready for an exciting journey. This week, Wall Street could potentially get a taste of what’s to come in the form of a record-breaking brilliant orange digital asset.

Bitcoin appears to have four-year cycles, separated into bull and bear cycles, based on historical chart patterns and trends. This corresponds, historically, to a bullish run of three years followed by a bearish correction of one year. The price of Bitcoin fell during the most recent bear market, from $68.8k in November 2021 to $16.4k in December 2022.

The Next Two Years Will See Another Bitcoin Bull Run
A Bitcoin cycle graphic that shows trends in BTC prices from 2014 to 2025 was released by well-known expert Ali Martinez. According to him, the four-year cycles that drive Bitcoin’s design are caused by halving events that occur every four years.

Events involving the halving of bitcoin typically result in a sharp increase in price. The four-year cycle consists of one year of bearish correction after three years of bullish tendencies. The price patterns of bitcoin have typically been comparable.

According to Martinez, Bitcoin has been in a bull market since January 2023 and may be in a bull market until December 2025. In 2023, the price of bitcoin increased 170% in spite of several litigation, regulatory obstacles, and more scrutiny.

The next Bitcoin halving is predicted by NiceHash’s countdown statistics to occur on April 20, 2024. The block reward for bitcoin will drop to 3.125 bitcoin from 6.25 bitcoin. In reaction to the impending halving event, the price of bitcoin has already begun to rise throughout the last two months.

The price of bitcoin has been fluctuating throughout the past 24 hours, currently hovering around $42,500. $41,424 is the 24-hour low and $42,462 is the 24-hour high. In addition, the trading volume has dropped by 7% during the past day, suggesting that traders are becoming less interested.

Additional factors driving the price surge of Bitcoin are the US Federal Reserve’s rate reduction and the US SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.