Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs that a significant rally could occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by historical price trends and current market dynamics. Despite a solid start to the year, with Bitcoin rising over 40%, the price has yet to surpass its pre-halving all-time high, leaving analysts speculating about the future.

Bitcoin’s Halving Year History Points to Strong Q4 Performance

The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with anticipation, especially as previous halving cycles have seen Bitcoin post impressive gains. Data from Coinglass highlights that in Q4 of halving years, Bitcoin has consistently delivered positive returns. For instance, it gained 58% in 2016 and a staggering 168% in 2020.

Source: Peter Brandt

Based on historical patterns, there is a 73% chance that Bitcoin will experience a significant rally in Q4 of 2024. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has observed similar trends, noting that during the 2020 halving cycle, Bitcoin’s bull rally began in the fourth quarter. Ju believes Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, which could trigger a parabolic uptrend as the year’s final quarter approaches.

Resistance Looms, but Momentum Could Build

Despite the optimism, Bitcoin faces significant resistance around the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $59,423. Data from IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model shows that approximately 817,770 BTC was purchased between $59,500 and $61,300, creating stiff resistance in this price range.

Bitcoin quarterly returns (%). Source: Coinglass

If Bitcoin can break through this barrier, further resistance at $61,383 and $62,323 could be next. However, if these levels aren’t surpassed, Bitcoin’s price could face a decline, potentially revisiting the $57,500 or even $54,500 levels, according to analyst Mark Cullen.

With the potential for a parabolic rally or a drop in price, Q4 could be a pivotal period for Bitcoin as it continues to navigate its post-halving cycle.

Bitcoin might be on the verge of a significant price rally, with market analysts predicting a potential new record high before the upcoming US election. Historically, Bitcoin has seen local bottoms in the third quarter of election years, often followed by strong price recoveries. In line with this trend, Bitcoin hit a six-month low of around $49,500 during the recent market downturn, which some analysts believe may mark the local bottom for 2024.

Bitcoin price performances in the third quarter of US election years. Source: SuperBro

Technical analyst SuperBro highlights that Bitcoin’s historical patterns in election years, such as 2012, 2016, and 2020, suggest a bullish trajectory in the months leading up to November. This time, Bitcoin’s price dynamics are also influenced by the “left-translated cycle” theory, which indicates that Bitcoin’s bullish cycles are beginning earlier, with price peaks occurring sooner than in previous cycles.

SuperBro points out that Bitcoin’s latest peak arrived a month before its fourth halving in April 2024, a deviation from past cycles where the price surged post-halving. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach new highs sooner than expected, potentially catching slower market participants off guard.

Source: SuperBro

Further supporting the bullish outlook is Bitcoin’s on-chain data. Long-term holders have been consistently locking in profits, while the realized profit/loss ratio shows signs of decline. This pattern historically precedes price rallies, further fueling optimism for a pre-election surge.

Bitcoin LTH net realized profit/loss. Source: Glassnode

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is also forming a bull flag pattern, which traditionally signals continued upward momentum. If Bitcoin breaks above the flag’s upper trendline, the price could rise to around $80,000 by November.

With the US election fast approaching and potential regulatory changes on the horizon, market sentiment appears to favor a strong Bitcoin performance in the coming months.

A recent technical pattern on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price chart has caught the attention of crypto analyst ‘Mags,’ who noted that the cryptocurrency had printed a bearish death cross. This technical indicator, where the 50-day Moving Average (MA) crosses below the 200-day MA, suggests a potential downturn for Bitcoin. It is the second such pattern Bitcoin has experienced since hitting a low of $15,500.

Mags highlighted that the previous death cross in September 2023 resulted in sideways trading before Bitcoin recovered and triggered a bullish rally. If this trend repeats, Bitcoin could experience several weeks of choppy price action before potentially regaining momentum.

ETFSwap (ETFS) Attracts Investors Amid Bitcoin Weakness

As Bitcoin’s price faces potential short-term weakness, investors are exploring alternatives like ETFSwap (ETFS). ETFSwap is an innovative crypto platform that offers access to tokenized ETFs backed by real-world assets. Investors are diving into ETFSwap’s presale, eager to take advantage of its potential for high returns.

ETFSwap’s ERC-20 token, ETFS, powers the platform, offering various benefits such as advanced trading tools, real-time market data, and the opportunity to earn up to 10X on trades. The platform prioritizes user privacy and security, with audits completed by cybersecurity firm CyberScope and KYC verification by SolidProof.

Record-Breaking Highs Predicted for ETFSwap (ETFS)

Analysts are bullish on ETFSwap’s future, predicting that its token could reach record-breaking highs after the ongoing presale. With the current price of ETF tokens at $0.01831, investors are encouraged to accumulate as many tokens as possible before the price surges in the next presale stage.

ETFSwap’s presale has already sold over 400 million tokens and raised more than $3 million, demonstrating strong demand. As the presale progresses, investors see this as a rare opportunity to secure future profits by getting in early.

Bitcoin whales — large-volume investors — have significantly slowed their rate of accumulation, raising concerns about the cryptocurrency’s ability to reach new all-time highs. According to a report by CryptoQuant, these investors are now adding just 1% to their Bitcoin (BTC) holdings per month, compared to a 6% increase seen earlier this year.

Bitcoin whale holdings % monthly change (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The report highlights that a monthly growth rate above 3% in whale holdings has historically driven Bitcoin prices higher. However, the current slowdown suggests the necessary demand to push Bitcoin to new heights is lacking. This decline in whale activity contrasts with the rapid accumulation observed before BTC’s previous all-time high in March.

Adding to the sluggish demand, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have not provided the necessary boost. Daily net inflows to spot ETFs have dwindled to a fraction of what they were in March, with recent averages at just 1,300 BTC per day. CryptoQuant suggests that a recovery in ETF purchases is essential for driving overall Bitcoin demand and potentially triggering a price rally.

US spot Bitcoin ETF change in BTC holdings (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

While whale accumulation has slowed, permanent holders — those who buy and never sell BTC — have shown no hesitation in increasing their exposure. This group has been accumulating Bitcoin at record levels, with a monthly growth rate of 391,000 BTC, outpacing even the strong demand seen in early 2024 when Bitcoin’s price exceeded $70,000.

Bitcoin permanent holder demand (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

However, more speculative investors appear cautious after Bitcoin’s dip to six-month lows in August. Many recent buyers are nursing unrealized losses, as their cost remains above the spot price, which hovers around $59,000. Despite recent price gains, Bitcoin remains under pressure as it struggles to regain upward momentum.

Bitcoin’s price has surged towards $61,000, buoyed by shifting macro sentiment and a rally in equities markets. The leading cryptocurrency gained 2.5% on Aug. 20, reaching a local high of $61,424 on Bitstamp. This increase reflects growing optimism among investors as broader financial markets show signs of renewed risk-taking.

Macro Environment Supports Bitcoin’s Rise

Market analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s recent price surge may be linked to a broader “risk-on” sentiment in global markets. According to a report from trading firm QCP Capital, corporate share buybacks have increased significantly this year, hitting $1.15 trillion. This renewed appetite for equities has created a positive momentum that could extend to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

QCP Capital also noted that investors are anticipating further clarity on U.S. monetary policy at the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole. Historically, events like this have influenced market sentiment, particularly in the equities sector. If the Fed signals a more dovish stance, it could further boost Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance Levels

Despite the recent gains, Bitcoin continues to struggle within a downward-sloping range. Analysts remain cautious, with many eyeing the key resistance level near $70,000. Mark Cullen, a popular trader, highlighted Bitcoin’s recent price movements, noting that it has pushed through the $59,500 level but still faces challenges in maintaining momentum above $60,000.

Source: Tom

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin’s price has followed a similar pattern since reaching its all-time high in March. The next crucial step, according to Rekt Capital, is for Bitcoin to confirm a weekly close above the bottom of its trading channel, which would signal bullish momentum.

Short-Term Consolidation Likely

While the overall sentiment is positive, some analysts expect Bitcoin’s price action to remain within its current range for the short term. Credible Crypto, another prominent trader, predicted that Bitcoin might continue to consolidate around the $56,000 to $60,000 range before making a decisive move.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Mark Cullen

The ongoing sideways movement suggests that the market may need more time to build momentum before challenging higher resistance levels.

Bitcoin is showing signs of an impending upward price movement as it nears the crucial $60,000 level. Despite the lack of traditional market activity over the weekend, BTC/USD steadily climbed, reaching local highs of $60,271 on Bitstamp on August 18.

Bullish Indicators Point to Further Gains

Analysts are observing key technical indicators that suggest Bitcoin could be on the verge of another price surge. One such indicator is the Ichimoku cloud on daily timeframes, which has shown a bullish crossover. Popular trader Titan of Crypto highlighted this development, noting that Bitcoin has closed a candle above the Tenkan line and is now targeting a Kijun reclaim. This TK crossover is a classic signal traders watch for, indicating a potential breakout.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

In addition, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator has also flashed a bullish signal. The MACD, which measures the relationship between two moving averages, is often used to identify potential buy and sell points. According to Titan of Crypto, these combined signals give Bitcoin a strong chance of “pumping again soon.”

Key Levels to Watch for a Breakout

Another prominent analyst, Rekt Capital, emphasized that Bitcoin’s next target should be reclaiming the $60,600 level by the weekly close. Achieving this would signal the end of its recent downturn and confirm its return to the post-halving “reaccumulation range.” Rekt Capital explained that surpassing this level would eliminate the downside deviation seen earlier in August, setting the stage for further gains.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with Ichimoku cloud data. Source: Titan of Crypto/X

Looking ahead, Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin is currently around 125 days post-halving. Historically, Bitcoin tends to enter a “parabolic phase” approximately 160 days after the halving. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could experience a significant breakout by late September.

As Bitcoin hovers around key technical levels, traders and analysts are closely watching for signs of the next big move. If these bullish indicators play out, Bitcoin could be on the brink of a new upward trajectory.

Bitcoin’s recent rebound of around 18.50% after hitting a six-month low of approximately $49,755 has sparked optimism among investors. However, there are signs that the cryptocurrency may undergo further correction in the coming weeks. A key factor is the high percentage of long-term Bitcoin holders currently in profit. As of August 16, nearly 83% of these investors, who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, are in a profitable position. Historically, such conditions often lead to profit-taking, which could push BTC prices lower.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Technical Patterns Suggest Potential Downside

Bitcoin’s price movements are currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, which can indicate either a reversal or continuation of a downtrend. If Bitcoin fails to break above the resistance level at around $59,280 and instead breaks below the rising trendline, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend. In this scenario, Bitcoin’s price could fall towards the $50,000 level, which also serves as a psychological support point.

Bitcoin long-term holder 30-day average percent supply in profit. Source: Glassnode

Bullish Indicators Offer Hope for Recovery

Despite the risks, Bitcoin may not crash after all. Ascending triangles are typically bullish reversal patterns in a downtrend, meaning a successful close above the 50-4H EMA could propel Bitcoin toward the triangle’s upper trendline, around $59,240. If Bitcoin breaks above this upper trendline, it could trigger a rally towards $70,000.

BLX vs. Gold daily price chart comparison. Source: Charles Edwards

This bullish outlook is supported by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, who notes that Bitcoin’s price movement often lags behind gold by a few months. With gold already breaking out of its consolidation phase, Bitcoin may follow suit.

Rate Cuts Could Boost Bitcoin

Moreover, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further enhance Bitcoin’s upside potential. Lower rates typically reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like US bonds, increasing the demand for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is holding onto the $55,500 support level, but concerns are growing among traders due to an increase in futures open interest and the emergence of a “death cross” on the BTC chart. This bearish signal, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) dips below the 200-day SMA, has traders on edge about potential further declines.

Institutional Investors Show Confidence Despite Sideways Action

Despite Bitcoin’s sideways price action in recent months, institutional investors remain confident, with more than 262 new firms investing in U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Q2 2024. According to Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, these investors have largely maintained or increased their positions. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlighted that 44% of asset managers boosted their Bitcoin ETF holdings, while only 13% exited their positions.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Near-Term Outlook Turns Bearish

While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, analysts are becoming more cautious in the short term. Cryptocurrency analysis platform Coinglass pointed out that the rising open interest in Bitcoin suggests there could be more room for a price decline. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $55,724 support, it could trigger a fall to $50,000.

Ethereum and Altcoins Under Pressure

Ethereum (ETH) also faces challenges, with the price of attempting to recover from support being nearly $2,500. However, ETH is expected to encounter strong selling pressure between the $2,772 and $2,850 levels. A failure to break through could increase the risk of a dip below $2,500.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Other major cryptocurrencies, including Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE), are similarly at risk of breaking down. Solana, for example, could drop to $130, and a breach of this level may see it retest the critical $116 support. XRP is locked in a battle near the $0.57 level, while Dogecoin struggles to stay above $0.10.

As Bitcoin and altcoins navigate these crucial support levels, traders remain cautious, keeping a close eye on market developments that could signal the next significant move.