The Bitcoin (BTC) market has long been associated with repeating patterns, commonly referred to as the 4-year cycle. While not a guaranteed rule, this cycle theory has gained traction because of Bitcoin’s historical price movements since its inception.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading about 9% below its August 14, 2025, all-time high of $124,474. Many analysts and investors are looking ahead to see whether the cycle is about to peak again, possibly later in 2025. To understand what could be next, it’s important to compare Bitcoin’s current trajectory with past cycles.

What Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle?

The 4-year cycle concept comes from the impact of Bitcoin halving events, which occur roughly every four years. Each halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, historically sparking bull runs that last until a major top forms, followed by a deep correction.

BTC Cycle Comparison | Credit: Glassnode

• The 2013 cycle peaked with a strong parabolic rise.

• The 2017 cycle also delivered a rapid surge before crashing.

• The 2021 cycle, however, showed a more gradual rise with a double top, where Bitcoin formed two peaks before heading into a bear market.

This repeating behaviour has led to speculation that the next top could occur in late 2025, fitting neatly into the 4-year cycle pattern.

Comparing Bitcoin’s Current Cycle to 2021

The current cycle is showing strong similarities to the one that ended in 2021. Two key points stand out:

1. Double Top Formation – In 2021, Bitcoin first peaked in April, then corrected, before reaching another all-time high in November. The current pattern looks similar, with two highs forming and a lengthy correction between them.

BTC/USDT 2-Week Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

1. Technical Indicators – Momentum signals such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are showing weakening trends. In 2021, both indicators turned bearish after divergences appeared near the top. At present, bearish divergences are also visible, but RSI and MACD have not yet fully crossed into bearish territory. This suggests the peak might still be a few months away.

Overall, the signs indicate that the market is slowing down in a way that closely mirrors the 2021 top rather than the explosive run of 2017.

Why 2017 Looks Different

The 2017 cycle cannot be easily compared to today. That bull run was defined by a parabolic price increase, where Bitcoin surged almost without pause until its $20,000 top in December.

• The RSI at the time reached as high as 90, showing extreme overbought conditions without any bearish divergences.

• The final three monthly candles were strongly bullish, reflecting intense buying pressure right until the top.

BTC/USDT Monthly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

Today, Bitcoin looks much calmer. With the RSI at around 71 and already flashing bearish divergence, it’s unlikely we will see a repeat of 2017’s parabolic climb. For such a move to occur, Bitcoin would need to rally past $200,000 in a very short time, a scenario that looks improbable given current market dynamics.

When Could the Next Peak Arrive?

Based on cycle theory and past patterns, analysts suggest that the next potential top could arrive between October and November 2025. The size of the rally, however, remains uncertain.

• If the cycle behaves like 2017, the price could enter a parabolic rally, but this appears unlikely.

• If the cycle mirrors 2021, Bitcoin may only climb moderately higher before forming its next major top.

Some analysts also argue that Bitcoin could eventually break away from the 4-year cycle entirely, especially as the market matures and institutional participation grows. If that happens, BTC could extend its bullish phase well into 2026 or 2027, rewriting expectations for cycle timing.

Bitcoin’s journey has always been a mix of repeating history and surprising deviations. While the 4-year cycle model suggests that 2025 could bring the next major peak, current data shows the market is behaving more like 2021 than 2017.

This means we may not see the dramatic parabolic surge that defined earlier cycles, but instead a steadier climb followed by a controlled correction. Investors should remain cautious, watch key indicators like RSI and MACD prepare for volatility as the cycle approaches its potential peak in late 2025.

Bitcoin slipped to its lowest point since early July on Friday, extending losses as heavy selling and over half a billion dollars in liquidations pressured the market. Despite a bullish relative strength index (RSI) divergence suggesting a possible rebound, sentiment remained cautious, with traders watching key support and resistance zones closely.

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Key Levels

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin (BTC) falling nearly 4% on the day, touching lows not seen since 8 July. The decline came after US markets opened, underscoring continued fragility in crypto trading.

Crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Much of the pressure stemmed from whale distribution on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, where large holders offloaded Bitcoin, exacerbating the downside. CoinGlass reported that crypto liquidations exceeded $530 million within 24 hours, highlighting the scale of forced selling.

BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Market watchers flagged the current price zone as a critical reversal area. Trader Daan Crypto Trades described it as “right on top of the previous range and consolidation area,” while analyst Crypto Caesar noted Bitcoin’s repeated failure to reclaim $112,000 as support.

Weekly Close and Reversal Hopes

Attention now turns to whether Bitcoin can secure a weekly close above $114,000, a level many traders consider essential to sustain bullish momentum. Without this, some warn that BTC risks sliding toward $108,000 or even lower.

A glimmer of optimism came from the four-hour RSI chart, which has preserved a bullish divergence. RSI making higher lows while price registers lower lows often signals a potential reversal.

BTC/USD four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Crypto commentator Javon Marks pointed out that the divergence could pave the way for a strong recovery.

“$BTC, still coming off of a confirmed bullish divergence, can still have a huge reversal back up to $123,000,” Marks wrote, suggesting a possible 15% rally back toward the all-time highs.

However, for now, those bullish signals remain muted as traders weigh macroeconomic factors and seasonal trends.

September Headwinds and Fed Uncertainty

Seasonality has also dampened sentiment. Historically, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month, and 2024 appears to be no exception. The timing coincides with heightened focus on US economic data, particularly inflation indicators.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, met expectations. While the data confirmed a rebound in inflationary pressures, it did little to ease investor nerves.

Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Lower borrowing costs typically provide a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Yet, analysts warn that the outlook could shift rapidly.

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Trading firm Mosaic Asset cautioned that next week’s US jobs data could be decisive:

“Outlook for rate cuts could be in jeopardy if next week’s payrolls are stronger than expected,” it noted.

This uncertainty leaves crypto markets delicately balanced, with traders torn between short-term technical setups and broader macroeconomic risks.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?

With BTC hovering near its weakest levels in nearly two months, all eyes are now on whether bulls can defend key support around $108,000–$112,000. Losing these levels could accelerate bearish momentum, while holding them may set the stage for another push higher.

The interplay between whale activity, liquidations, and Federal Reserve policy decisions will likely dictate Bitcoin’s near-term direction. While RSI divergence offers a hint of optimism, history shows that September rarely provides much comfort for Bitcoin traders.

Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent to new heights came to an abrupt halt on Thursday, as traders were hit with a wave of selling triggered by fresh US inflation concerns. The world’s largest cryptocurrency had just shattered its previous record, surging past $124,000 for the first time, before swiftly reversing course.

At its peak earlier this week, Bitcoin was riding high alongside Ether, which touched $4,791.19, just shy of its 2021 all-time high. But optimism evaporated after unexpectedly strong wholesale inflation data from the United States rattled global markets, prompting a rapid sell-off across digital assets.

By Thursday afternoon, Bitcoin had fallen 1.72% to $118,243, with 24-hour trading volumes hitting an eye-watering $108.89 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Ether also lost momentum, slipping 2% to $4,591.40.

From Inflation Hopes to Inflation Shock

The pullback marked a dramatic change in sentiment from earlier in the week. On Tuesday, a cooler-than-expected US consumer inflation report fuelled hopes the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as September. That data sent Bitcoin, Ether, and equity markets surging, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting fresh records.

However, Thursday’s wholesale inflation figures painted a less reassuring picture. The higher-than-anticipated readings undermined rate-cut optimism, sparking fears of prolonged monetary tightening. This triggered broad profit-taking across crypto markets, ending Bitcoin’s record-breaking momentum almost as quickly as it began.

Technical Signals Show Short-Term Weakness

Market charts confirm the sudden shift in momentum. TradingView’s four-hour analysis showed Bitcoin’s strong upward trend persisting until 13 August, when it topped out near $121,000. From there, prices broke below a key upward trend line and slipped under the 50-period moving average, a sign of weakening short-term support.

Bitcoin 4hr chart, Source: TradingView

While the 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average, suggesting underlying medium-term optimism, the growing gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and its 50-day average points to possible increased volatility ahead.

Liquidation data further highlights the scale of the downturn. Coinglass reported over $1 billion in positions wiped out within 24 hours, with long traders bearing the brunt of the damage. Some $782 million worth of bullish bets were erased, impacting more than 219,000 traders. The largest single liquidation, a $10 million hit occurred on Bybit’s BTCUSD contract.

Medium-Term Outlook Still Favourable

Despite Thursday’s jolt, analysts caution against overreacting. The medium-term trend remains intact, buoyed by rising institutional participation, expanding adoption, and the broader momentum in risk assets. Bitcoin’s pullback, they argue, is a reminder of the market’s inherent volatility rather than a fundamental reversal.

Still, traders are bracing for choppier sessions in the near term, with inflation uncertainty likely to keep markets on edge. The challenge now is whether Bitcoin can stabilise above the $115,000-$118,000 range and mount another run towards its record high or whether inflation-driven fears will continue to weigh on sentiment.

For now, the cryptocurrency market stands at a crossroads: institutional confidence and adoption trends point one way, while macroeconomic headwinds tug the other. As Thursday’s events proved, even in a bull market, Bitcoin’s path is rarely smooth.

As Bitcoin adoption surges among corporations, analysts are drawing historical parallels with gold’s path to nationalisation in 1971 raising concerns that governments could one day seize corporate-held crypto reserves.

Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Top $100 Billion

Corporate treasuries have now amassed more than $100 billion in digital assets, according to recent data. Bitcoin-focused treasury firms alone hold around 791,662 BTC, worth roughly $93 billion. This represents almost 4% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply.

Source: Chris Kuiper

The surge in institutional holdings follows a trend of accelerating adoption. In the past two weeks, 35 publicly traded companies have each surpassed the milestone of holding more than 1,000 BTC on their balance sheets.

For Bitcoin advocates, these developments are a key step towards the cryptocurrency’s long-term vision of becoming a dominant global monetary standard. However, some analysts warn that growing centralised corporate ownership could also create a single point of vulnerability, making Bitcoin more susceptible to government intervention.

Parallels with the 1971 Gold Standard Collapse

Prominent crypto analyst Willy Woo has compared Bitcoin’s growing corporate concentration to the historical precedent of gold’s nationalisation path before 1971.

At the time, the US operated under the Bretton Woods system, which pegged the dollar to gold at $35 per ounce. As global pressures mounted, President Richard Nixon suspended dollar convertibility into gold, effectively ending the gold standard and seizing control of the nation’s gold reserves.

Pictured left to right: Willy Woo, Preston Pysh, Max Kei, speaking at ‘Bitcoin’s Institutional Phase: Trojan Horse or Tipping Point? panel at Batlic Honeybadger 2025. Source: Cointelegraph

Woo suggested that a similar playbook could unfold with Bitcoin:

“If the US dollar is structurally getting weak and China is coming in, it’s a fair point that the US might do an offer to all the treasury companies and centralise where it could be then put into a digital form… You could then rug it like happened in 1971. The whole history repeats again.”

In such a scenario, governments could compel corporate custodians to surrender their Bitcoin holdings, centralise them, and potentially reissue them in a controlled digital format.

Why Whales Could Be Targets Too

The risk isn’t limited to corporate treasuries. Preston Pysh, co-founder of the Investors Podcast Network and Bitcoin venture fund Ego Death Capital, believes Bitcoin whales, individuals or private entities with large BTC holdings could also be targeted.

Preston Pysh, co-founder of the Investors Podcast Network

“They’re going to take the Bitcoin because it’s going to have an institutional custodian that does not want to go to jail,” Pysh explained. He added that initial targets would likely be private entities with substantial Bitcoin reserves, especially if these holdings are stored with regulated custodians.

In essence, the very institutionalisation that could drive Bitcoin’s mainstream acceptance may also make it easier for governments to locate and seize large pools of coins.

Massive Upside Despite Risks

Despite these nationalisation concerns, analysts remain extremely bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Woo points out that Bitcoin has grown into a $2 trillion asset in just 16 years and could still expand 100 times over decades to come.

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream

He estimates a $100 trillion market opportunity, echoing similar forecasts from Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, who has called Bitcoin a potential $200 trillion global market in the long run.

Back described the scenario as:

“A sustainable and scalable $100-$200 trillion trade front-running hyperbitcoinisation, scalable enough for most big listed companies to move to BTC treasury.”

Hyperbitcoinisation refers to the hypothetical future where Bitcoin replaces fiat currency as the dominant medium of exchange and store of value, driven by its fixed supply and decentralised nature.

The Balancing Act Ahead

Institutional adoption remains a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. On one side, it is essential for the cryptocurrency to achieve the scale necessary to challenge the US dollar and surpass gold as a global monetary standard. On the other, it introduces centralised chokepoints, corporate custodians that could be leveraged by governments to exert control.

The history of gold’s nationalisation shows that state intervention in valuable assets is not unprecedented. While Bitcoin’s decentralised design offers some protection, the concentration of coins in regulated institutions could undermine that safeguard.

As Bitcoin’s corporate boom accelerates, the coming years may determine whether this wave of adoption cements its position as the backbone of a new financial era or sets the stage for a modern replay of 1971.