Bitcoin’s recovery from recent volatility has strengthened investor optimism, but historical price patterns suggest the road to fresh all-time highs may first require a temporary setback. Analysts point to a potential retracement towards $101,634 before the cryptocurrency king can establish the momentum needed for a decisive breakout.

Historical Patterns Indicate a Needed Correction

Despite trading well above $110,000 at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price trajectory could align with a familiar historical playbook. Analysts highlight the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $101,634 as a crucial pivot point.

Historically, Bitcoin rallies often pause at this level before launching into the next growth phase. A short-term decline of roughly 8.7% from current levels would take BTC back to this zone, setting up a more sustainable rebound.

Bitcoin Historical Support Level. Source: TradingView

This potential retracement, if realised, would not necessarily signal weakness. Instead, it could represent a technical reset, helping to flush out over-leveraged positions while recharging bullish momentum for the climb toward new records.

Market Signals Provide Mixed Outlook

Current momentum indicators paint a more complex picture. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, a widely monitored on-chain metric, has been cooling. Typically, a rising NVT warns of overvaluation, often followed by price corrections. Its present decline suggests subdued activity rather than speculative overheating.

This cooling dynamic may limit the likelihood of an imminent sharp sell-off. Without such a dip, Bitcoin could deviate from historical norms, potentially slowing the pace of its advance to a new peak. This divergence underscores the delicate balance between technical patterns and market sentiment.

BTC Price Resilience Supports the Bullish Case

Bitcoin’s performance above the $110,000 support level underlines its resilience. The cryptocurrency has held a four-month uptrend intact, consolidating its gains after repeated profit-taking attempts.

Short-term momentum suggests that if Bitcoin sustains its footing, it could break through $112,500 and move toward $115,000. This outlook keeps the bullish narrative alive, though it still leaves the question of whether an interim correction will precede a decisive push to uncharted territory.

Risks of a Deeper Correction

While many traders anticipate only a moderate retracement to the $101,634 level, the risk of sharper declines cannot be ignored. Should fear-driven selling dominate the market, Bitcoin could slip below the $100,000 mark, invalidating the bullish thesis and potentially extending the correction phase.

Such a scenario would mark a significant shift in sentiment, eroding the confidence built up during the ongoing rally. Investors would likely become more cautious, waiting for confirmation of stabilisation before re-entering the market.

The Road Ahead

Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture. Its sustained uptrend, strong support levels, and cooling on-chain indicators offer grounds for optimism. Yet history warns that a pullback may be necessary before the next leg higher.

Whether Bitcoin dips to the Fibonacci retracement level or bypasses it entirely will depend on market psychology in the days ahead. Traders will be closely monitoring support zones, on-chain activity, and profit-taking patterns as the cryptocurrency navigates its way toward a potential new all-time high.

For now, the market remains on edge, weighing the possibility of a healthy reset against the risk of deeper corrections. Either way, the coming weeks could prove decisive in shaping Bitcoin’s next chapter.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market has long been associated with repeating patterns, commonly referred to as the 4-year cycle. While not a guaranteed rule, this cycle theory has gained traction because of Bitcoin’s historical price movements since its inception.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading about 9% below its August 14, 2025, all-time high of $124,474. Many analysts and investors are looking ahead to see whether the cycle is about to peak again, possibly later in 2025. To understand what could be next, it’s important to compare Bitcoin’s current trajectory with past cycles.

What Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle?

The 4-year cycle concept comes from the impact of Bitcoin halving events, which occur roughly every four years. Each halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, historically sparking bull runs that last until a major top forms, followed by a deep correction.

BTC Cycle Comparison | Credit: Glassnode

• The 2013 cycle peaked with a strong parabolic rise.

• The 2017 cycle also delivered a rapid surge before crashing.

• The 2021 cycle, however, showed a more gradual rise with a double top, where Bitcoin formed two peaks before heading into a bear market.

This repeating behaviour has led to speculation that the next top could occur in late 2025, fitting neatly into the 4-year cycle pattern.

Comparing Bitcoin’s Current Cycle to 2021

The current cycle is showing strong similarities to the one that ended in 2021. Two key points stand out:

1. Double Top Formation – In 2021, Bitcoin first peaked in April, then corrected, before reaching another all-time high in November. The current pattern looks similar, with two highs forming and a lengthy correction between them.

BTC/USDT 2-Week Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

1. Technical Indicators – Momentum signals such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are showing weakening trends. In 2021, both indicators turned bearish after divergences appeared near the top. At present, bearish divergences are also visible, but RSI and MACD have not yet fully crossed into bearish territory. This suggests the peak might still be a few months away.

Overall, the signs indicate that the market is slowing down in a way that closely mirrors the 2021 top rather than the explosive run of 2017.

Why 2017 Looks Different

The 2017 cycle cannot be easily compared to today. That bull run was defined by a parabolic price increase, where Bitcoin surged almost without pause until its $20,000 top in December.

• The RSI at the time reached as high as 90, showing extreme overbought conditions without any bearish divergences.

• The final three monthly candles were strongly bullish, reflecting intense buying pressure right until the top.

BTC/USDT Monthly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

Today, Bitcoin looks much calmer. With the RSI at around 71 and already flashing bearish divergence, it’s unlikely we will see a repeat of 2017’s parabolic climb. For such a move to occur, Bitcoin would need to rally past $200,000 in a very short time, a scenario that looks improbable given current market dynamics.

When Could the Next Peak Arrive?

Based on cycle theory and past patterns, analysts suggest that the next potential top could arrive between October and November 2025. The size of the rally, however, remains uncertain.

• If the cycle behaves like 2017, the price could enter a parabolic rally, but this appears unlikely.

• If the cycle mirrors 2021, Bitcoin may only climb moderately higher before forming its next major top.

Some analysts also argue that Bitcoin could eventually break away from the 4-year cycle entirely, especially as the market matures and institutional participation grows. If that happens, BTC could extend its bullish phase well into 2026 or 2027, rewriting expectations for cycle timing.

Bitcoin’s journey has always been a mix of repeating history and surprising deviations. While the 4-year cycle model suggests that 2025 could bring the next major peak, current data shows the market is behaving more like 2021 than 2017.

This means we may not see the dramatic parabolic surge that defined earlier cycles, but instead a steadier climb followed by a controlled correction. Investors should remain cautious, watch key indicators like RSI and MACD prepare for volatility as the cycle approaches its potential peak in late 2025.

Bitcoin slipped to its lowest point since early July on Friday, extending losses as heavy selling and over half a billion dollars in liquidations pressured the market. Despite a bullish relative strength index (RSI) divergence suggesting a possible rebound, sentiment remained cautious, with traders watching key support and resistance zones closely.

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Key Levels

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin (BTC) falling nearly 4% on the day, touching lows not seen since 8 July. The decline came after US markets opened, underscoring continued fragility in crypto trading.

Crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Much of the pressure stemmed from whale distribution on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, where large holders offloaded Bitcoin, exacerbating the downside. CoinGlass reported that crypto liquidations exceeded $530 million within 24 hours, highlighting the scale of forced selling.

BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Market watchers flagged the current price zone as a critical reversal area. Trader Daan Crypto Trades described it as “right on top of the previous range and consolidation area,” while analyst Crypto Caesar noted Bitcoin’s repeated failure to reclaim $112,000 as support.

Weekly Close and Reversal Hopes

Attention now turns to whether Bitcoin can secure a weekly close above $114,000, a level many traders consider essential to sustain bullish momentum. Without this, some warn that BTC risks sliding toward $108,000 or even lower.

A glimmer of optimism came from the four-hour RSI chart, which has preserved a bullish divergence. RSI making higher lows while price registers lower lows often signals a potential reversal.

BTC/USD four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Crypto commentator Javon Marks pointed out that the divergence could pave the way for a strong recovery.

“$BTC, still coming off of a confirmed bullish divergence, can still have a huge reversal back up to $123,000,” Marks wrote, suggesting a possible 15% rally back toward the all-time highs.

However, for now, those bullish signals remain muted as traders weigh macroeconomic factors and seasonal trends.

September Headwinds and Fed Uncertainty

Seasonality has also dampened sentiment. Historically, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month, and 2024 appears to be no exception. The timing coincides with heightened focus on US economic data, particularly inflation indicators.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, met expectations. While the data confirmed a rebound in inflationary pressures, it did little to ease investor nerves.

Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Lower borrowing costs typically provide a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Yet, analysts warn that the outlook could shift rapidly.

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Trading firm Mosaic Asset cautioned that next week’s US jobs data could be decisive:

“Outlook for rate cuts could be in jeopardy if next week’s payrolls are stronger than expected,” it noted.

This uncertainty leaves crypto markets delicately balanced, with traders torn between short-term technical setups and broader macroeconomic risks.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?

With BTC hovering near its weakest levels in nearly two months, all eyes are now on whether bulls can defend key support around $108,000–$112,000. Losing these levels could accelerate bearish momentum, while holding them may set the stage for another push higher.

The interplay between whale activity, liquidations, and Federal Reserve policy decisions will likely dictate Bitcoin’s near-term direction. While RSI divergence offers a hint of optimism, history shows that September rarely provides much comfort for Bitcoin traders.

Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent to new heights came to an abrupt halt on Thursday, as traders were hit with a wave of selling triggered by fresh US inflation concerns. The world’s largest cryptocurrency had just shattered its previous record, surging past $124,000 for the first time, before swiftly reversing course.

At its peak earlier this week, Bitcoin was riding high alongside Ether, which touched $4,791.19, just shy of its 2021 all-time high. But optimism evaporated after unexpectedly strong wholesale inflation data from the United States rattled global markets, prompting a rapid sell-off across digital assets.

By Thursday afternoon, Bitcoin had fallen 1.72% to $118,243, with 24-hour trading volumes hitting an eye-watering $108.89 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Ether also lost momentum, slipping 2% to $4,591.40.

From Inflation Hopes to Inflation Shock

The pullback marked a dramatic change in sentiment from earlier in the week. On Tuesday, a cooler-than-expected US consumer inflation report fuelled hopes the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as September. That data sent Bitcoin, Ether, and equity markets surging, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting fresh records.

However, Thursday’s wholesale inflation figures painted a less reassuring picture. The higher-than-anticipated readings undermined rate-cut optimism, sparking fears of prolonged monetary tightening. This triggered broad profit-taking across crypto markets, ending Bitcoin’s record-breaking momentum almost as quickly as it began.

Technical Signals Show Short-Term Weakness

Market charts confirm the sudden shift in momentum. TradingView’s four-hour analysis showed Bitcoin’s strong upward trend persisting until 13 August, when it topped out near $121,000. From there, prices broke below a key upward trend line and slipped under the 50-period moving average, a sign of weakening short-term support.

Bitcoin 4hr chart, Source: TradingView

While the 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average, suggesting underlying medium-term optimism, the growing gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and its 50-day average points to possible increased volatility ahead.

Liquidation data further highlights the scale of the downturn. Coinglass reported over $1 billion in positions wiped out within 24 hours, with long traders bearing the brunt of the damage. Some $782 million worth of bullish bets were erased, impacting more than 219,000 traders. The largest single liquidation, a $10 million hit occurred on Bybit’s BTCUSD contract.

Medium-Term Outlook Still Favourable

Despite Thursday’s jolt, analysts caution against overreacting. The medium-term trend remains intact, buoyed by rising institutional participation, expanding adoption, and the broader momentum in risk assets. Bitcoin’s pullback, they argue, is a reminder of the market’s inherent volatility rather than a fundamental reversal.

Still, traders are bracing for choppier sessions in the near term, with inflation uncertainty likely to keep markets on edge. The challenge now is whether Bitcoin can stabilise above the $115,000-$118,000 range and mount another run towards its record high or whether inflation-driven fears will continue to weigh on sentiment.

For now, the cryptocurrency market stands at a crossroads: institutional confidence and adoption trends point one way, while macroeconomic headwinds tug the other. As Thursday’s events proved, even in a bull market, Bitcoin’s path is rarely smooth.