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Mt. Gox

Bitcoin is experiencing increased volatility, falling 2.16% on Wednesday after a series of failed attempts to break the $70,000 barrier. The recent downturn in BTC price is attributed to the massive transfer of 107,000 Bitcoins, valued at $9 billion, by the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox. This has sparked fears of a sell-off as the exchange prepares to distribute the assets to users who lost their funds in its 2014 hack.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

As news of the Mt. Gox transfers broke, BTC/USD saw a decline. Market participants anticipate a sell-off once the distributed Bitcoins reach the users. However, Bitcoin’s daily timeframe chart shows a higher high, breaking the bearish trend and indicating a potential buying opportunity. Key support levels to watch are $63,700 and $60,750, where buyers might step in.

Ethereum Holds Steady

Despite the approval of a spot ETH ETF, Ethereum has struggled to surpass the $4,000 mark. Concerns about possible outflows from Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF once it launches may be contributing to this. Nonetheless, Ethereum’s outlook remains positive as long as the price holds above the $3,500 support level.

Solana Faces Resistance

Solana showed resilience with a 0.46% rise on Tuesday, demonstrating strength against Bitcoin, which is trading at fresh weekly lows. However, Solana faces significant resistance at the $172 level. Clearing this resistance could propel the price to a target of $193. In the event of a pullback, the $166 support level will be crucial to maintain.

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An analyst has suggested that despite a stagnation in cryptocurrency markets over the past three months, several blockchain indicators imply that a bull market might be on the horizon. Since late February, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies has remained around $2.5 trillion, leaving market participants uncertain about the cycle’s continuation.

Which Indicators Show Bullish Signs?

In a May 19 post, analyst ELI5 highlighted three on-chain indicators that suggest the potential onset of a bull market. Historically, crypto bull markets kick off with high Bitcoin dominance, as investors shift away from altcoins during previous bear cycles.
Conversely, a decline in Bitcoin dominance typically heralds the advent of alt seasons, signaling the next bull cycle phase. However, this shift has not yet occurred. Current data from TradingView shows Bitcoin’s market dominance slightly above 56%, retaining a majority market share since October 2023.

What Does Bitcoin’s MVRV Z Score Indicate?

The Bitcoin MVRV Z score, which compares the current market value to historical averages, generally peaks around 6 during market cycle highs. According to LookIntoBitcoin, the score is presently under half of that and hasn’t exceeded 6 since March 2021, indicating potential for further growth.

Another critical metric, the Puell Multiple, is also yet to reach typical cycle peak levels. This indicator measures the daily value of newly mined Bitcoin against its annual moving average. Post-halving in April, the Puell Multiple dropped below 1 and only reached 2.4 during March 2024’s price surge, far from the peak threshold of 3.

User Insights

The Realized Cap HODL Waves charts from LookIntoBitcoin provide additional bullish signals:

  • Reduction in young band peaks indicates decreased selling pressure, suggesting room for further price increases.
  • Fewer new Bitcoin holders, who tend to panic sell, are a positive trend for market stability.
  • Overall holding patterns indicate long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s value.

Conclusion

In summary, despite recent market consolidation, various blockchain indicators point to the early stages of a new bull market. The unique metrics and dominant market behaviors suggest that the crypto market may soon experience significant growth, with Bitcoin at the forefront.

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Bitcoin has been maintaining a position around $67,000, with month-to-date gains exceeding 10% as of May 19. However, some traders are warning that a significant price drop could be imminent.

Bitcoin Resistance Levels at $70,000

Data from TradingView show that Bitcoin bulls are holding their ground as the week comes to a close. Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that $72,000 now represents the largest resistance zone for Bitcoin. “Price did take out a big cluster around 67.4K but there’s still some big levels at ~$68K. ~$72K onwards is where most liquidity lies at the moment,” he posted on X, referencing a chart from CoinGlass.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Daan Crypto Trades noted that most liquidity below the current price had been cleared by the recent downtrend, with the next significant level around the $60,000 region. He also pointed out the importance of Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA) as a long-term support level, suggesting it would be a good indicator for gauging mid- to high-timeframe momentum.

Optimism for a Bull Market Continuation

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital offered a more hopeful outlook, suggesting that a 1% price increase could signal a new chapter in the bull market. He explained-

“BTC only needs to drop an additional -1% to perform the post-Bull Flag breakout retest attempt in an effort to secure trend continuation to the upside,”

Predictions of a 10% Price Drop

Conversely, trader and commentator Credible Crypto provided a more conservative view, suggesting that the current upside might be complete and that Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 level or lower. In a post on X, he warned, “At this point, I think we will, at minimum, tag the 59-60k region,” alongside a chart.

BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

Credible Crypto also mentioned that the $62-63k zone might offer temporary relief but ultimately could give way. He added that altcoins could face more significant losses if Bitcoin drops to these levels, stating, “A move down to 59-60k on $BTC is a 10% drop—on many alts their respective drops will be much more.”

As Bitcoin approaches critical resistance levels, the market remains divided on whether the recent gains will continue or if a notable correction is on the horizon.

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The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the price has been trapped inside a large descending channel pattern for two months now, failing to break out to either side. Yet, following the recent fake breakout from the lower boundary, the market is seemingly gaining momentum to recover and continue higher.

The Relative Strength Index has been on the rise and is now on the verge of rising above the 50% threshold, meaning that the momentum is shifting bullish. This leaves the midline of the descending channel as the most important resistance element that is keeping the market from rallying once again.

btc_price_chart_1505241

The 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour chart, it is evident that the price has been repeatedly testing the $60,000 support level over the recent weeks.

Interestingly, the action seems to be creating an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline being located at the $63,500 mark. In case this level is broken through, market participants can expect a rally toward the $68K resistance level and even beyond in the short-term.

btc_price_chart_1505242

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR

Bitcoin’s price has failed to keep up its significant upward momentum and has been going through a gradual correction over the past couple of months. While there could be many reasons for such corrections, profit realization is the most prominent.

This chart demonstrated the STH SOPR, a metric that measures the ratio of the realized profits by short-term holders. Values above one indicate profit-taking, while values below one show losses being realized.

As the chart demonstrates, the STH SOPR has been rapidly dropping over the recent correction, retreating from record highs. This shows that short-term holders have already realized massive profit-taking. With the STH SOPR now hovering around one, the weak hands are likely out of the market, and if there is any time for the beginning of a new rally, it could be now.

btc_sopr_chart_1505241
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Bitcoin (BTC) has kicked off the week on a bullish note, marking a 2% climb against the US dollar in the early hours of Asia trading. Despite this positive start, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, currently hovering just below $63,000, remains approximately 3.3% lower compared to the previous week. Analysts at ETC Group attribute this subdued performance to the market’s gradual shift into a dull seasonal phase, particularly evident from June onwards.

Market Lacks New Catalysts

ETC Group analysts note the absence of fresh positive catalysts following recent US and Hong Kong spot ETF approvals and the Bitcoin Halving event. Moreover, as summer approaches, historical trends suggest below-average returns for Bitcoin. Compounding this, increasing recession risks in the US could act as a seasonal headwind, as Bitcoin’s performance often mirrors global growth expectations.

On the mining front, Bitcoin miners are experiencing reduced daily rewards post-halving, impacting aggregate miner revenues significantly. ETC’s data reveals a stark drop from approximately $72 million before the April Halving to a mere $28 million currently. This reduction in miner rewards could potentially exert selling pressure on Bitcoin.

ETF Inflows Resurge, Altcoins Experience Mixed Performance

Despite Bitcoin’s challenges, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have turned positive once again, registering around $25.7 million in net inflows last week following a period of significant outflows exceeding $372 million.

In contrast, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has seen a 6.8% dip against the US dollar over the week. Within the broader altcoin market, Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA) have recorded mid-single-digit losses. Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) has extended its losses to over 10% in the same timeframe.

As Bitcoin navigates through seasonal challenges and miner dynamics, investors and analysts closely monitor its resilience and the broader market’s response amidst evolving macroeconomic conditions.

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Fake Federal Employee

In a surprising turn of events, the scammer responsible for the recent theft of over $71 million worth of wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) has initiated the refund of a portion of the stolen funds to the victim.

The scammer, believed to have executed an “address poisoning” attack, stole 1,155 WBTC from the victim before selling the entire loot for 22,960 ETH. This ETH was then dispersed across multiple addresses, presumably for obfuscation and money laundering purposes.

Victim Receives ETH Refunds

Following the theft, the victim began receiving ETH transfers from the attacker, signaling a potential negotiation between the two parties. The attacker initially reached out to the victim via an on-chain message, requesting a Telegram address. Alongside this message, a transfer of 51 ETH ($152,000) was made.

Significant Return of Stolen Funds

Security firm PeckShield reports that the attacker has transferred a total of 11,446.87 ETH ($34.7 million) back to the victim’s address, constituting approximately 50% of the stolen funds. This unexpected development offers a glimmer of hope for the victim and underscores the complexity of cybercrime negotiations.

The identity of the Attacker Remains Elusive

Despite ongoing investigations, the identity and location of the hacker remain undisclosed. While SlowMist‘s threat intelligence network identified several IPs suspected to be associated with the hacker, originating from Hong Kong, the possibility of VPN usage complicates efforts to pinpoint the attacker’s true identity.

The saga of the $71 million WBTC theft and subsequent refund highlights the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency-related crimes and the challenges faced by security firms in tracking and apprehending cybercriminals.

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Snowden Criticisms The Lack of Privacy in Bitcoin Highlights the Need for Protocol-Level Solutions

After the Samourai Wallet creators were recently charged, Snowden reaffirmed his concerns over privacy in the cryptocurrency space. His most recent comments were made in response to Zksnacks’ announcement that it would be discontinuing its coinjoin service, which allowed users to combine unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) in order to evade onchain surveillance. Snowden emphasised how important it is that Bitcoin developers include privacy measures at the protocol level.

 

On the social media platform X, Snowden said, “I’ve been warning Bitcoin developers for ten years that privacy needs to be provided for at the protocol level.” The leaker from the NSA and CIA also stated:

This is the final warning. The clock is ticking.

 

For a number of years, Snowden has often voiced concerns to developers. In an interview with Naomi Brockwell from 2020, he discussed the privacy limitations of the protocol. “It is clear to me that the developers have realised this should be done,” he said, emphasising that Bitcoin does not contain the required privacy protections. Snowden noted, “[Developers] haven’t actually moved to do this.” He then on, “Which is confusing to me because they’ve had years to do it.”

 

Snowden has previously commended zcash (ZEC), a cryptocurrency that focuses on privacy. The renowned whistleblower, going by the alias “John Dobbertin,” took part in the first Zcash ceremony, which greatly aided in the network’s development. Upon bringing attention to the necessity for Bitcoin developers to incorporate privacy features, several people asked Snowden why he had left out monero (XMR).

 

“Any excuses for not using or endorsing Monero?” Vini Barbosa enquired. In response to Snowden’s statement, Bitcoin Core contributor Luke Dashjr said he had never heard such remarks from him before. “Anyway, just what are you thinking of? Since I’m not a cryptographer, I’m not aware of any workable options for protocol-level privacy at this time, Dashjr added. In response to Snowden’s revelation, a large number of people advertised their favored privacy assets.

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Bitcoin’s price soared on Tuesday morning, reaching a two-week high above $64,000 (£48,906), marking a significant uptrend in the cryptocurrency’s value.

Bitcoin Hits $64,000 Mark

At 8:50 am in London on Tuesday, Bitcoin surged 8.2% to $64,001.77, hitting a two-week high against the dollar. This increase in value also propelled Bitcoin’s market capitalization back above $1 trillion.

Recovery from Recent Pullback

The rally in Bitcoin’s price comes as the cryptocurrency recovers from a recent pullback. In late February, Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high above $58,000 before experiencing a drop to below $44,000. However, since the beginning of the month, Bitcoin’s price has been rebounding steadily.

According to Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, Bitcoin has overcome most of its obstacles and is now out of the “trouble zone.” Aslam predicts that the next target for Bitcoin’s price is the all-time high, with potential further gains towards $70,000.

Institutional Adoption Boosts Bitcoin’s Rally

Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable rally of over 350% since last October, largely driven by increased institutional investor adoption. Companies like Square and Tesla have made significant investments in Bitcoin, with Square investing over $200 million in the cryptocurrency and Tesla disclosing a $1.5 billion investment.

Mainstream financial institutions are also entering the cryptocurrency market, with UK asset manager Ruffer allocating 3% of its assets to Bitcoin and Goldman Sachs restarting its trading desk for the digital asset.

Bitcoin’s Tipping Point

Citi recently suggested that Bitcoin could be at a “tipping point,” indicating growing acceptance and adoption of the cryptocurrency. However, the bank’s research note has faced criticism over its sourcing and the accuracy of its data.

As Bitcoin continues to gain traction among institutional investors and mainstream financial institutions, its value and significance in the global financial landscape are likely to continue increasing.

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Best Crypto to Buy in 2024

Cryptocurrency traders were hit with a wave of panic as the broader crypto market witnessed a staggering $286 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours. The plunge in prices, particularly affecting Bitcoin and Ethereum, has left investors jittery, with concerns mounting over the market’s future trajectory.

Market Turmoil: $286M Liquidated in 24 Hours

In a dramatic turn of events, the crypto market experienced a massive liquidation spree totaling over $286 million within the last day. According to data from CoinGlass, a staggering 99,014 traders faced liquidation as leveraged positions across various digital assets were forcibly closed. Notably, Bitcoin alone accounted for $69.2 million in liquidations, with Ethereum witnessing a substantial $91.73 million in losses. Other cryptocurrencies, including Solana and Dogecoin, collectively recorded liquidations amounting to $40.20 million.

Binance Records Largest Single Liquidation

The liquidation frenzy swept across several prominent exchanges, including Binance, OKX, ByBit, Huobi, and Bitfinex. Binance, in particular, saw the largest single liquidation event. While the exact triggers for this market turmoil remain unclear, speculation looms over the recent legal developments involving Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, the CEO of Binance.

Bitcoin Struggles Below $65,000

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, bore the brunt of the sell-off, plunging below the crucial $65,000 mark. After reaching highs of $73,000 in March and finding support near $65,000 in recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price plummeted to $60,437.79, marking a significant 4.11% decline in just 24 hours. Analysts point to various technical indicators signaling potential further declines, with fears mounting over the coin’s lackluster performance post-halving.

Ethereum Follows Suit, Down 6.46%

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, mirrored Bitcoin’s downward trajectory, dropping by 6.46% to trade at $2,971.75. The broader market sentiment has been dampened by Ethereum’s decline, amplifying concerns over the overall health of the crypto market.

Despite the current downturn, analysts remain divided on the prospects of cryptocurrencies. While some foresee a potential resurgence, with Bitcoin possibly reaching heights of $70,000 or even $100,000 post-halving, others remain cautious amidst the ongoing market volatility and regulatory uncertainties.

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Hong Kong

In a landmark move for the Asian financial market, Hong Kong witnesses the inaugural trading of six spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amidst cautious investor sentiment.

The introduction of the first spot cryptocurrency ETFs in Asia comes on the heels of a similar move in the United States, with Tuesday’s trading marking a pivotal moment for the region’s cryptocurrency investment landscape. Despite Hong Kong’s positioning as a burgeoning digital asset hub, mainland China’s cryptocurrency ban casts a shadow over the potential enthusiasm for such ventures.

Mixed Results on Debut

The six ETFs experienced a mixed reception on their debut day, with spot bitcoin ETFs launched by China AMC, Harvest, and Bosera gaining modestly between 1.5% and 1.8% at the close. In contrast, the three ether ETFs saw marginal declines. Bitcoin, the bellwether cryptocurrency, also experienced a slight dip of over 1%.

Moderate Turnover and Issuer Confidence

Total turnover for the debut day amounted to approximately $112 million, significantly lower than the impressive $4.6 billion recorded during the initial trading of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. However, issuers remain optimistic, citing substantial pre-listing interest from both crypto enthusiasts and traditional investors. China AMC’s bitcoin ETF led the pack with an initial size of HK$950 million ($121 million), underscoring significant investor confidence.

Regulatory Caution

While celebrating the milestone, Christina Choi, an executive director of the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), urged caution, highlighting the speculative and volatile nature of virtual assets. Choi emphasized the unsuitability of such investments for all investors, echoing broader regulatory concerns regarding cryptocurrency trading.

Hong Kong-US Crypto Competition

The launch of Hong Kong’s ETFs positions the region in direct competition with the United States for crypto investor attention. Despite U.S. ETFs attracting approximately $12 billion in net inflows and contributing to bitcoin’s earlier price surge, regulators in the U.S. have yet to greenlight ETFs tracking spot ether prices.

Local industry players anticipate substantial growth in Hong Kong’s spot crypto ETF market, potentially reaching 20% of its U.S. counterpart within a year. Han Tongli, CEO of Harvest Global Investments, believes Hong Kong holds greater potential than the U.S., given its ability to attract investors from both the Western and Eastern markets.

Innovative Transaction Mechanisms

A key differentiator of Hong Kong’s ETFs is their adoption of the “in-kind” transaction mechanism, allowing investors to trade ETF shares using crypto tokens instead of cash. This feature may appeal to investors seeking to avoid conversion costs, potentially driving initial inflows from local retail investors.

Challenges and Opportunities

However, challenges remain, notably the higher management fees of Hong Kong’s crypto spot ETFs compared to their U.S. counterparts due to regulatory constraints. With only two approved trading platforms currently operating in Hong Kong, analysts anticipate cost concerns may initially limit institutional participation.

Despite these hurdles, bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, with a 50% increase in value this year, hitting an all-time high of $73,803 in March. Ether has also seen significant gains, rising over 30% year-to-date, suggesting continued investor interest in cryptocurrency assets.

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