Bitcoin’s price has remained stuck in a narrow trading range throughout October, fluctuating between $60,000 and $64,000. While it has consistently held above the $60,000 support level, multiple attempts to break the $64,000 resistance have failed, leaving the market in a state of indecision.

Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Bitcoin’s Upside

One of the key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s stagnation is the prevailing economic uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions. Investors are cautiously awaiting key US economic data, including the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its latest policy meeting and upcoming inflation data. Market participants are anticipating a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which is typically bullish for Bitcoin. However, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, are driving investors toward safer assets like the US dollar.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

The dollar index has climbed to its highest levels in nearly a month, further weakening Bitcoin’s momentum as it consolidates within the $60,000-64,000 range.

Low Sell-Side Activity Keeps Bitcoin Range-Bound

Bitcoin’s stagnant price can also be attributed to minimal sell-side activity, as indicated by the Sell-Side Risk Ratio. This metric measures the profit or loss realized by investors relative to Bitcoin’s Realised Cap. A lower ratio, which is currently observed, suggests that coins are being sold close to the investors’ break-even point, with little profit or loss being realized. This lack of decisive action is keeping Bitcoin’s price flat and range-bound.

Bitcoin sell-side risk ratio. Source: Glassnode

Neutral Momentum and Potential Downside

Technically, Bitcoin’s price action is forming a rising wedge pattern, characterized by ascending trendlines that converge at an apex of around $69,750. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the neutral 50 level, indicating balanced sentiment between buyers and sellers.

Rising wedge patterns are typically bearish, with a breakdown likely to occur if Bitcoin falls below the lower trendline. Should this happen, Bitcoin risks dropping to the $49,700-56,000 range by the end of 2024.

For now, traders remain cautious, with neutral momentum reflecting a conflict in market sentiment.

Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation around the $62,000 mark is raising expectations of a major move in the near future, according to market analysts. While the direction of this move remains uncertain, traders are watching two key events closely: potential further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the possibility of a large Bitcoin sale by the US government.

Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted in an Oct. 9 post on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin has become “very compressed” after hovering around $62,000 for several days. He suggested that Bitcoin’s next move is likely to be significant but advised caution, recommending that traders wait for clearer signals before making any decisions.

Federal Reserve Cuts and Crypto Market Impact

The US Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis points interest rate cut on Sept. 18 has already influenced investor sentiment, and further cuts are expected. Financial experts predict the Fed will continue reducing rates, with HSBC forecasting a series of 25 basis point cuts starting in November. These cuts are generally seen as positive for riskier assets like Bitcoin, as traditional investments such as savings accounts become less attractive.

Bitcoin is trading at $61,920, down 0.38% over the past 24 hours. Source: TradingView

Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, commented on the broader economic implications, warning that the Fed’s decisions could hurt holders of US dollars. He said, “The Fed has begun cutting rates… those holding US dollars will pay for their mistakes.”

Potential Silk Road Bitcoin Sale Sparks Concerns

Further adding to market uncertainty is the potential sale of Bitcoin seized by the US government from the Silk Road marketplace. On Oct. 8, the US Supreme Court declined to hear a case regarding the ownership of 69,370 Bitcoin (worth $4.38 billion). This opens the door for a government sale, which could impact Bitcoin’s price in the short term.

Bitget’s chief analyst, Ryan Lee, warned that the sale could cause short-term volatility and lead to a temporary price drop due to increased supply in the market.

With uncertainty looming, market participants are closely monitoring these events, anticipating a large move in Bitcoin’s price soon.

Bitcoin has retargeted $64,000 on October 1 after closing September with a record monthly performance. BTC rebounded to $63,778 following a brief dip below $63,000, marking a 7.3% gain for the month, according to CoinGlass. This represents Bitcoin’s best-ever performance for the month of September, often referred to as “Rektember” due to historical price declines.

Strong Mid-Term Support Holds BTC Steady

While Bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 as support, traders remain optimistic. Key support from the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has helped sustain the mid-term bullish trend. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, stressed that holding the 20-week SMA is crucial to avoid a further retracement. Losing both the 20-week SMA and the 200-day moving average would signal weakness, according to Alan.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Other analysts, such as Daan Crypto Trades, highlighted support and resistance levels at $62,700 and $67,000, respectively, based on liquidity patterns in the order book. Roman, another popular trader, pointed out the formation of bullish divergences, suggesting further price gains in the near term.

Buy-the-Dip Strategy Gains Traction

Traders like Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” have encouraged a “buy the dip” strategy as Bitcoin made a higher high above $65,000 on the weekly chart. Michaël van de Poppe also expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, predicting a retest at $60.5K-$61.3K before reaching a new all-time high. He believes Bitcoin is now in a new uptrend, making any dips potential buying opportunities.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

As Bitcoin continues to challenge its previous highs, analysts and traders alike remain focused on breaking the $65,000 barrier and pushing toward a new all-time high.