Canadian Bitcoin miner, Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE), has reported a significant 36% increase in sales for the second quarter of 2024, reflecting the company’s strategic expansion into the high-performance computing market for artificial intelligence (AI) applications.

Impressive Revenue Growth

Hive Digital posted revenues of approximately $32 million for Q2 2024, up from $23.5 million in the same period last year. The majority of this revenue continues to stem from Hive’s core cryptocurrency mining operations. However, the company also saw its new high-performance computing platform generate around $2.6 million in sales during the quarter.

Strategic Shift to AI Compute

On July 12, 2023, Hive Blockchain Technologies rebranded to Hive Digital Technologies, signaling a shift in focus towards hosting AI and other advanced computational tasks. This pivot aims to leverage the company’s extensive inventory of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs). While Hive intends to maintain its presence in Bitcoin mining, it is diversifying its business by utilizing these Nvidia GPUs to create high-performance computing clusters, specifically designed to power AI applications.

The total hashrate for the Bitcoin network has more then doubled since early2023. Source: CoinWarz

In addition to its AI compute services, Hive is also exploring the rental of GPU server clusters through marketplace aggregators and the development of a new cloud service offering. The company currently operates nine data centers across Canada, Sweden, and Iceland.

Challenges and Industry Shifts

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has posed challenges for Hive’s operations in Sweden, particularly concerning energy supply disruptions. However, Hive has managed to mitigate some of the impact of rising energy prices in Europe through forward energy agreements.

Bitcoin miners like Hive are adjusting their business models to cope with the recent Bitcoin network halving event in April 2024, which halved mining rewards. The industry is also grappling with Bitcoin’s notorious price volatility. As part of broader industry trends, companies such as Bitdeer are investing in next-generation equipment, while others like Argo Blockchain have made strategic asset sales to maintain profitability.

Bitcoin has been underwhelming in recent months, trading within a narrow range while other assets, like gold and U.S. stock indexes, have surged to new highs. However, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, believes Bitcoin’s price action still holds promise. In a recent X post, Edwards highlighted a pattern where Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s price movements after a delay of around three months.

Gold’s Influence on Bitcoin

Using data since late 2019, Edwards demonstrated how Bitcoin’s price often mirrors gold’s trends, albeit with a latency period. As gold recently hit an all-time high in mid-July, Edwards suggests that Bitcoin could soon begin its own upward trajectory, potentially mirroring gold’s bullish run.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD chart. Source: Charles Edwards

Favorable Bitcoin Growth Forecast

Looking ahead, other analysts share a positive outlook for Bitcoin, especially as it relates to gold’s performance. William Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity, noted that gold experienced a 10-12 month consolidation period following the launch of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2004, before marking a significant price increase. He suggests that Bitcoin might follow a similar pattern, with favorable growth expected into 2025.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD chart. Source: William Clemente

Despite its recent stagnation, Bitcoin remains the best-performing macro asset of 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 34%, closely followed by gold at 19%. The historical performance of these assets indicates that Bitcoin’s current phase might be a precursor to a significant bullish run, as seen in gold’s recent trends.

As the year progresses, investors are advised to keep an eye on Bitcoin’s price action, especially in relation to gold’s movements, as the cryptocurrency may soon embark on a new upward journey.

Bitcoin speculators have been hit hard following a sharp downturn in BTC prices, resulting in significant unrealized losses. According to the latest research from crypto analytics firm Glassnode, the recent market turbulence has “purged” speculators, with liquidations reaching a staggering $365 million.

Short-Term Holders Suffer Most

The data reveals that Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs)—those who have held BTC for 155 days or less—are bearing the brunt of the losses. This cohort, typically more vulnerable to market shocks than long-term holders (LTHs), saw their holdings plunge into the red following the price crash. Glassnode’s analysis highlights that only 7% of STH holdings remain in profit, echoing the stress levels experienced during the BTC price dip below $30,000 a year ago.

Bitcoin STH % supply in profit with standard deviation bands (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

The STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the profitability of coins being spent, recorded historically low levels, indicating that recent investors are locking in losses averaging -10%. Glassnode noted that these depths have only been surpassed on 70 occasions in Bitcoin’s history.

Market Panic and Liquidations

The broader market reaction to the price drop has been characterized by panic and fear, with STHs “dominating” on-chain losses—just 3% of the losses were attributable to LTHs. The massive sell-off by STHs has led to what Glassnode describes as a “statistically significant capitulation,” drawing parallels to the market conditions following the FTX collapse.

Bitcoin STH SOPR chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

CryptoQuant, another on-chain analytics platform, suggested that the current situation might present a potential buying opportunity. Historically, SOPR levels around 0.90 to 0.95 have marked good entry points during bull trends.

Looking Ahead

August has been an “exceptionally eventful month” for Bitcoin, according to Glassnode. The cryptocurrency recorded its largest drawdown of the current cycle, a -32% drop from its all-time high, triggering a wave of liquidations and a meaningful reduction in market leverage.

Bitcoin futures liquidations (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

As the dust settles, analysts will be closely watching on-chain and spot market data to assess Bitcoin’s potential recovery in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin BTC $56,714 faces a critical challenge this week as bulls aim to secure a weekly close above $59,000 to regain control. The cryptocurrency’s rebound from six-month lows at $49,500 faces significant resistance, making this target crucial for maintaining upward momentum.

Weekly Close Critical for BTC

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin’s next weekly close must hit $59,000 to confirm a successful reclaim of key support levels. This target is essential for Bitcoin to stay aligned with its behavior since its all-time high in March.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

“It has happened,” Rekt Capital noted, referring to Bitcoin’s upward reversal. “Now, Bitcoin will need to close above ~$59,110 later this week to reclaim the bottom of the black channel as support and confirm a return into the pattern.”

However, this pattern faces challenges as Bitcoin has experienced a series of lower highs and lower lows, with resistance building at $70,000 and above.

Long-Term Market Strength Concerns

Another analyst, HTL-NL, pointed out concerns over Bitcoin’s long-term market strength, focusing on the relative strength index (RSI) levels on monthly timeframes. The analyst warned that a succession of lower highs in RSI suggests decreased chances for Bitcoin to return to price discovery.

BTC/USD 1-month chart with RSI data. Source: TradingView

“Word of warning: technically this looks like we had the cycle top already and not only that: we also had the bigger cycle top,” HTL-NL wrote. “Meaning a lot of the elasticity had gone out of the PA. You can see that from the decreasing RSI at each high.”

Macro Economic Influences

Despite technical challenges, some analysts believe that global macroeconomic changes could spur a broad crypto and risk-asset comeback. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that the US will soon begin adding liquidity, which could positively impact Bitcoin.

In his latest blog post, Hayes suggested that the US Treasury might inject between $301 billion to $1.05 trillion into the market by year-end. “TL;DR: Bad Gurl Yellen will inject $301bn to $1.05tn between now and year-end,” he wrote, referring to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Hayes also noted that Bitcoin’s near-term performance would depend on the interplay with the US dollar and Japanese yen pair, following the unwinding of the yen carry trade.

Current Market Position

At the time of writing on August 7, Bitcoin traded around $57,500 ahead of the day’s Wall Street open, according to data from TradingView. Whether Bitcoin can secure the critical $59,000 weekly close remains to be seen, but it will be a key factor in determining the next phase of its market journey.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a challenging start to August, with its price falling over 14% month-to-date due to negative macroeconomic factors, including an interest rate hike in Japan, worsening US employment data, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin dropped to a seven-month low of $49,577 on Bitstamp after losing the key support provided by the 200-day EMA and the $50,000 level.

Massive Liquidations and Market Wipeout

The drop below $50,000 on August 5 led to significant liquidations, wiping out more than $500 billion from the crypto market. However, Bitcoin has since recovered, reclaiming $56,000 after finding support around the $54,000 zone, marking a 2.5% increase over the last 24 hours.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Analysts Predict Recovery

This recovery has sparked optimism among Bitcoin analysts, who now believe in BTC’s potential to climb to higher levels. Analyst Jelle noted on August 6 that Bitcoin needed to get back above $57,000 to ensure that “all is well.” Another analyst, Mags, shared a chart showing that the relative strength index (RSI) is oversold on the daily timeframe, indicating a potential recovery driven by reduced downward momentum and increased buying interest.

Mags’ Analysis and Buying Opportunity

Mags explained that the RSI had entered the oversold zone for the fifth time in this cycle, suggesting that buying the dips could initiate a recovery in BTC. Each time the RSI dips below 30, it has historically been a good opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin. Analyst Moustache echoed similar sentiments, highlighting that the RSI had sent a bullish signal on the daily chart, presenting a “buying opportunity.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Mags

US-Based Exchanges Show Positive Trends

Kaiko analysts corroborated this in their August 5 post on X, revealing that the recent sell-off was characterized by dip buying on US-based crypto exchanges such as Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicated that buying volume exceeded selling volume on these platforms.

Source: Peter Brandt

Historical Context and Future Projections

Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt noted that the latest post-halving correction is similar to the 2015–2017 cycle, suggesting that if the pattern holds, a “new bull cycle high” could be seen in the coming weeks. Titan of Crypto believes Bitcoin is in its “final capitulation” phase after the recent flash crash, projecting an upside above $90,000. A relief rally from current levels wouldn’t be surprising, given the historical patterns and current market conditions.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) plunge below $50,000 on August 5 led to significant losses for short-term holders, while long-term investors largely held their ground, according to data from CryptoQuant.

Speculators Realize Heavy Losses

The dramatic price drop saw Bitcoin giving up the $50,000 level amid widespread panic triggered by a sell-off in Asian stock markets. The event resulted in BTC/USD losing $20,000 in a single week.

Data analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Cauê Oliveira reveals that the majority of Bitcoin sold during this flash crash came from coins that had been held for less than a week. This category of coins, typically held by short-term speculators, moved over $5.2 billion in a single hour.

Bitcoin spent output age bands (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

“In total, in the age ranges up to 1 day and 1 day to 1 week alone, more than $5.2 billion was moved in a single hour,” Oliveira summarised.

Long-Term Holders Stay Resilient

In stark contrast, long-term holders, who are typically more resilient and less likely to sell during market downturns, only realized losses amounting to approximately $600,000 during this period.

“When we delve deeper into the spending pattern, we had about $850 million in loss realization in this downward movement,” Oliveira noted.

Bitcoin short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR). Source: Quinten

“However, only $600,000 was realized by long-term holders. The rest was realized by short-term investors. The largest volume is concentrated in investors up to 3 months old, indicating that the price drop is putting pressure on newcomers to capitulate.”

The scale of the loss-making transactions was highlighted by Crypto investor and YouTuber Quinten, who cited data from fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr.

BTC Price Faces Potential Further Decline

Despite a subsequent 10% bounce from its six-month lows, there is caution among traders regarding the future direction of BTC prices. Some are targeting price levels in the $40,000 range.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, issued a warning to his X followers on August 6, suggesting that the market relief might be temporary. Hayes anticipates further turmoil, especially among over-leveraged traditional finance investors affected by the yen carry trade fallout.

“That was the first wave. Now we wait for bodies of TradFi over-leveraged muppets to surface,” Hayes commented. “Then wave 2 begins. If there is going to be a bailout the market needs to deliver more pain by Friday. Enjoy the respite for the war shall continue.”

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action is showing signs of potential downside, with the cryptocurrency at risk of revisiting lows below $50,000. This warning comes from popular trader CrypNuevo, who noted that Bitcoin’s recent volatility could result in a return to six-month lows.

Historical Patterns and Price Movements

Bitcoin has a historical tendency to “fill” large downside wicks within days or weeks. CrypNuevo highlighted this pattern, showing that significant wicks created by volatility often see prices revisiting the lows shortly after. He illustrated this with a chart marking all the relevant long wicks since March, emphasizing the likelihood of this new wick being filled sooner rather than later.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart with wick-fill data. Source: CrypNuevo/X

“We bounced from EXACTLY the 50% level of a previous long wick,” CrypNuevo pointed out, suggesting that the recent bounce might not be a strong indicator of sustained recovery.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Views

The current sentiment in the market is mixed, with some analysts believing that Bitcoin might have already hit a bottom. Trading firm QCP Capital mentioned that a significant leverage flush could be a positive signal for bulls.

“Yesterday’s risk-off rout flushed out a decent chunk of leverage,” QCP Capital noted in its latest bulletin. “With prices having fallen off a cliff, it is possibly time to start thinking about accumulating BTC and ETH spot.”

Macroeconomic Factors and Future Projections

QCP Capital also expressed optimism regarding macroeconomic developments, particularly in relation to the United States Federal Reserve. They believe that an emergency interest rate cut by the Fed is unlikely, which could prevent additional market panic.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

“Asset prices are likely to stay volatile and markets remain choppy until clarity on Fed and BoJ policy is provided,” QCP stated. They are looking forward to key updates from the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference from August 22-24.

As of August 6, BTC/USD traded at around $55,000, showing some recovery from the recent lows but still under pressure from broader market uncertainties.

The U.S. job market showed significant signs of cooling in July, with the economy adding just 114,000 jobs and the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This job growth figure fell short of expectations for 175,000 and was a notable decrease from June’s revised figure of 179,000, initially reported as 206,000.

The unemployment rate’s rise from 4.1% in June to 4.3% was also above the forecast of 4.1%. Despite this soft data, the price of bitcoin (BTC) remained relatively unaffected, trading at around $64,500, showing little change from its position before the announcement and from 24 hours earlier.

 

In contrast, traditional markets saw a more pronounced reaction. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell by 15 basis points to 3.83%, and the two-year yield dropped by 23 basis points to 3.93% – both reaching their lowest levels in over a year. Stock markets did not respond favorably to the job numbers, with Nasdaq futures falling 2.3% and the S&P 500 down by 1.6%.

The dollar weakened by 0.6%, while gold prices surged by 1.3%, hitting a new record high of $2,513 per ounce.

Other aspects of the employment report showed that average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% in July, falling short of the expected 0.3% and down from 0.3% in June. Annually, average hourly earnings rose by 3.6%, which was below the 3.7% forecast and June’s 3.8% increase. Average weekly hours worked also missed expectations, coming in at 34.2 against forecasts of 34.3 and June’s 34.3.

In response to the weaker-than-expected job data, traders are increasingly betting on significant Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, up from 22% just a day earlier. For the December meeting, traders are beginning to price in a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, compared to the previous expectation of 75 basis points.

This shift in market sentiment underscores the broader economic uncertainty and the increasing likelihood of more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve to support the economy.

Bitcoin aimed to reclaim $62,000 on Aug. 3, recovering from a sharp decline that saw it nearing the $60,000 mark. This followed a widespread sell-off in global stock markets.

BTC Price Dips to $60,000 Amid Stock Market Sell-Off

Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin rebounding by 3% after hitting multi-week lows of $60,435 on Bitstamp. The cryptocurrency’s fall mirrored a grim day for stocks, with Japan’s Nikkei dropping 6%, leading to losses on Wall Street. U.S. employment data, which significantly missed expectations, added to the market panic.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin lost nearly $5,000, breaking through several key support levels, including the short-term holder cost basis. Liquidations surged, with CoinGlass data indicating a total crypto longs wipeout of $230 million over Aug. 1 and Aug. 2.

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

Michaël van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm MNTrading, noted that U.S. yields plummeted due to dismal job reports, sparking widespread panic as markets anticipated a substantial recession in the U.S. He suggested that recent events likely confirmed the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its September meeting, a potential bullish trigger for crypto and risk assets.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

“Rate cuts for September are confirmed,” van de Poppe concluded.

The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, highlighted the mixed signals in the macroeconomic landscape. It noted a shift in discussions from whether a September rate cut would happen to whether the cut would be 25 or 50 basis points. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated a 78% market probability of a 0.25% cut.

Global Liquidity: A Bullish Case for Bitcoin

Despite the market shock, bullish perspectives on Bitcoin persisted. Jeff Ross, founder and managing director of hedge fund Vailshire Partners, pointed to rising global liquidity as a positive indicator for BTC price action. He shared a chart comparing the global M2 money supply to BTC/USD, suggesting that a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, combined with increasing global M2, would be highly bullish.

BTC/USDT chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Even before the recent downturn, traders anticipated Bitcoin retesting the lower end of its long-term trading range. Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin has been trading within a range for over five months, with key levels at $59K and $74K for the lows and highs, respectively.

As Bitcoin navigates market volatility, its performance remains closely tied to broader economic signals and liquidity trends.

Bitcoin is entering a traditionally challenging period as global stock markets experience significant volatility. According to traders, the cryptocurrency must maintain its price above $60,000 to reach new all-time highs.

Bitcoin Price Steadies Amid Market Sell-Off

Data from TradingView indicates that Bitcoin bounced from fresh two-week lows of $62,235 on August 2. Despite this rebound, Bitcoin is flirting with a breakdown toward $60,000 as risk assets fluctuate at the start of the month.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Stock markets worldwide are undergoing an extended sell-off. Japan made headlines on August 1 when the Nikkei fell 6%, marking its most significant single-day drop since the global stock market crash of 1987, known as “Black Monday.” While the crypto market has not mirrored this volatility to the same extent, concerns about Bitcoin’s immediate future persist.

Historical Trends Suggest Tough Months Ahead

Traders note that historically, the second half of Q3 has been a difficult period for Bitcoin. Data from the monitoring resource CoinGlass highlights that both August and September have been “red” months in recent years. In August 2023, a flash downtrend briefly took Bitcoin’s market to $25,000, a low that has held since.

NIKKEI 225 vs. BTC/USD on-day chart. Source: TradingView

Popular trader Jelle commented on this trend in a recent X post, noting, “Bitcoin closed July in the green, gaining 2.95%. Historically, the market tends to struggle in the remainder of Q3 but really starts moving higher once October comes around. Let’s see what we get this time around.”

Key Support Levels and Future Predictions

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, identifies the key support test at $60,000. He believes that holding this level is crucial for Bitcoin to continue towards an all-time high. He echoed other theories circulating on social media, predicting, “Bitcoin needs to hold above $60-61K and then we’re going to be seeing a continuation towards the all-time high. Historically, August & September are bad, however, I’m expecting that from mid-August the momentum starts to change. New ATH in September/October.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle

Potential for a Breakout

Despite concerns over lower highs and lower lows on daily timeframes since Bitcoin’s $73,800 all-time high in March, some traders remain optimistic. Jelle remains unfazed by the months of consolidation and support retests, stating, “Bitcoin is still trading inside the channel we’ve spent the past months inside of, but holding above key supports. Looks like a breakout is getting closer by the day. Patience, until then.”

As Bitcoin navigates this turbulent period, all eyes are on whether it can hold critical support levels and potentially achieve new highs in the coming months.