Bitcoin aimed to reclaim $62,000 on Aug. 3, recovering from a sharp decline that saw it nearing the $60,000 mark. This followed a widespread sell-off in global stock markets.

BTC Price Dips to $60,000 Amid Stock Market Sell-Off

Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin rebounding by 3% after hitting multi-week lows of $60,435 on Bitstamp. The cryptocurrency’s fall mirrored a grim day for stocks, with Japan’s Nikkei dropping 6%, leading to losses on Wall Street. U.S. employment data, which significantly missed expectations, added to the market panic.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin lost nearly $5,000, breaking through several key support levels, including the short-term holder cost basis. Liquidations surged, with CoinGlass data indicating a total crypto longs wipeout of $230 million over Aug. 1 and Aug. 2.

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

Michaël van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm MNTrading, noted that U.S. yields plummeted due to dismal job reports, sparking widespread panic as markets anticipated a substantial recession in the U.S. He suggested that recent events likely confirmed the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its September meeting, a potential bullish trigger for crypto and risk assets.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

“Rate cuts for September are confirmed,” van de Poppe concluded.

The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, highlighted the mixed signals in the macroeconomic landscape. It noted a shift in discussions from whether a September rate cut would happen to whether the cut would be 25 or 50 basis points. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated a 78% market probability of a 0.25% cut.

Global Liquidity: A Bullish Case for Bitcoin

Despite the market shock, bullish perspectives on Bitcoin persisted. Jeff Ross, founder and managing director of hedge fund Vailshire Partners, pointed to rising global liquidity as a positive indicator for BTC price action. He shared a chart comparing the global M2 money supply to BTC/USD, suggesting that a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, combined with increasing global M2, would be highly bullish.

BTC/USDT chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Even before the recent downturn, traders anticipated Bitcoin retesting the lower end of its long-term trading range. Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin has been trading within a range for over five months, with key levels at $59K and $74K for the lows and highs, respectively.

As Bitcoin navigates market volatility, its performance remains closely tied to broader economic signals and liquidity trends.

Bitcoin is entering a traditionally challenging period as global stock markets experience significant volatility. According to traders, the cryptocurrency must maintain its price above $60,000 to reach new all-time highs.

Bitcoin Price Steadies Amid Market Sell-Off

Data from TradingView indicates that Bitcoin bounced from fresh two-week lows of $62,235 on August 2. Despite this rebound, Bitcoin is flirting with a breakdown toward $60,000 as risk assets fluctuate at the start of the month.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Stock markets worldwide are undergoing an extended sell-off. Japan made headlines on August 1 when the Nikkei fell 6%, marking its most significant single-day drop since the global stock market crash of 1987, known as “Black Monday.” While the crypto market has not mirrored this volatility to the same extent, concerns about Bitcoin’s immediate future persist.

Historical Trends Suggest Tough Months Ahead

Traders note that historically, the second half of Q3 has been a difficult period for Bitcoin. Data from the monitoring resource CoinGlass highlights that both August and September have been “red” months in recent years. In August 2023, a flash downtrend briefly took Bitcoin’s market to $25,000, a low that has held since.

NIKKEI 225 vs. BTC/USD on-day chart. Source: TradingView

Popular trader Jelle commented on this trend in a recent X post, noting, “Bitcoin closed July in the green, gaining 2.95%. Historically, the market tends to struggle in the remainder of Q3 but really starts moving higher once October comes around. Let’s see what we get this time around.”

Key Support Levels and Future Predictions

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, identifies the key support test at $60,000. He believes that holding this level is crucial for Bitcoin to continue towards an all-time high. He echoed other theories circulating on social media, predicting, “Bitcoin needs to hold above $60-61K and then we’re going to be seeing a continuation towards the all-time high. Historically, August & September are bad, however, I’m expecting that from mid-August the momentum starts to change. New ATH in September/October.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle

Potential for a Breakout

Despite concerns over lower highs and lower lows on daily timeframes since Bitcoin’s $73,800 all-time high in March, some traders remain optimistic. Jelle remains unfazed by the months of consolidation and support retests, stating, “Bitcoin is still trading inside the channel we’ve spent the past months inside of, but holding above key supports. Looks like a breakout is getting closer by the day. Patience, until then.”

As Bitcoin navigates this turbulent period, all eyes are on whether it can hold critical support levels and potentially achieve new highs in the coming months.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle against resistance at the $70,000 mark, printing lower highs on the daily chart since its all-time highs in March. Data from TradingView indicates that the area around $70,000 has been a significant barrier, limiting the July rebound.

Persistent Seller Control

Bitcoin bulls have been keen on challenging the March all-time high of $73,800. However, sellers have consistently thwarted these attempts, maintaining control and sending BTC/USD back into its five-month trading range. This repeated pattern suggests substantial liquidity above $70,000, with traders noting the build-up of stop losses and liquidation levels from short positions.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Trader Insights

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the significance of the $70,000 level, suggesting that a lot of liquidity lies above this mark. He pointed out that $72,000 is now the critical level for bulls to overcome. Meanwhile, other traders see buy liquidity below the spot price, indicating a potential downward movement to $64,000.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Similarly, analyst Josh Rager has observed the lower high cycle and remains cautious about trading until a firm breakout occurs. He emphasised the need for a daily close above the current resistance to regain interest in trading BTC.

Market Depth and Future Trends

Some traders, such as the pseudonymous Horse, have expressed scepticism about the recent spike to $70,000. They argue that a lack of genuine spot buyer interest raises questions about the sustainability of the move. Horse noted that while open interest (OI) has increased, it has not been accompanied by significant price action, suggesting that the current market depth is unfavourable.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Josh Rager/X

Horse also mentioned that market depth shifts unfavourably across the board but acknowledged that this alone is non-actionable. Despite these concerns, the long-term outlook for crypto remains bullish, with the expectation that the upward trend might be more gradual and gritty before significant gains are realised.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s battle with the $70,000 resistance continues, with bears maintaining control and traders eyeing liquidity levels for potential movements. The current market setup calls for caution, with significant breakouts required to inspire renewed trading interest.

Bitcoin experienced a familiar pattern as its latest push to $70,000 was swiftly rejected, resulting in a sharp $4,000 price drop. BTC $66,441 traded around $66,500 into the July 30 Asia trading session, circling the daily open.

BTC Price Fails to Hold Key Support

The previous day saw significant volatility, with Bitcoin initially reaching $70,000 but failing to sustain it. This resulted in a nearly 6% drop within hours. The move coincided with $2 billion of BTC leaving a wallet linked to the United States government, contrasting with weekend pledges by presidential candidates to build a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

William Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity, suggested the timing was “not a coincidence” and predicted a short-term dip before a likely upward movement. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, expressed hope that bulls could recover to maintain a rising trendline on daily timeframes.

Bulls Need to Flip $69,000 for Sustainable Growth

Alan emphasized that higher levels, specifically $72,000 and above, depended on bulls flipping the old 2021 all-time high of $69,000 to firm support. He argued that a sustainable move to a new all-time high would only occur once this level was validated and flipped.

Source: Keith Alan

Short-Term Targets and Market Sentiment

Popular trader Roman focused on near-term BTC price targets, extending down to $60,000. He predicted that sentiment would become ultra-bearish at these levels, potentially triggering a short squeeze and a return to the upper part of Bitcoin’s longer-term trading range.

BTC/USDT chart. Source: Mark Cullen

Fellow trader Mark Cullen analyzed whether Bitcoin would hold at the current trendline and golden zone retrace to create a higher low (HL) or bounce for a lower high (LH) and roll over to the range low.

Increasing Exchange Withdrawals

The onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant has noted increasing withdrawals from exchanges. Contributing analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted that the mean amount of BTC per exchange withdrawal transaction was rising, despite Bitcoin entering a fluctuation area since February. This increase in Bitcoin outflow is seen as a positive sign, indicating the possibility of a price increase and a breakout from the fluctuation area in the future.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a recent price spike, but analysts are cautioning that a further dip could be imminent. The cryptocurrency’s price action, resembling a pattern seen last week, comes as markets prepare for key news events, including a speech by Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

Short-Term Gains Amid Caution

Bitcoin has risen by approximately 2% since the daily close on July 25, reaching above $67,000. However, not all traders are convinced of the short-term strength in BTC’s price. Popular trader Crypto Ed highlighted the surprising rebound from local lows of $63,430, which mirrored price behavior from the previous week.

“Bouncing stronger than I was expecting yesterday, looks impulsive,” Crypto Ed noted. He had anticipated a corrective bounce followed by a further drop towards $62,000 or even lower. Despite the current bounce, Crypto Ed acknowledged that the market could still fulfill bullish expectations and avoid further downside.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Crypto Ed

“That scenario is still possible, but the strength in the current bounce is starting to look like we have already finished leg 2 and heading to new highs again,” he added, referencing an Elliott Wave chart that suggested a longer-term BTC price target of around $80,000.

Anticipation for Trump’s Bitcoin Conference Speech

There is growing anticipation for Donald Trump’s appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Trump, a United States presidential candidate, has been associated with a bullish outlook for the crypto market after expressing supportive policy plans for the industry. Rumors also suggest Trump might consider creating a US strategic reserve in Bitcoin if elected.

BTC/USDT order book data. Source: Cole Garner

Potential for Further Decline

Despite recent gains, some analysts maintain a conservative outlook. Popular analyst Cole Garner pointed out that the aggregate spot BTC order book remains bearish, predicting more sideways movement for the market.

Trading resource Material Indicators also highlighted a downside target of $63,500 as a critical level for Bitcoin bulls. Should the market drop to this level, it would invalidate the latest upside signals from proprietary trading indicators.

BTC/USD chart with trading indicator signals. Source: Material Indicators

In conclusion, while Bitcoin has seen a recent price increase, traders and analysts warn that a further dip to $62,000 or lower is still a possibility. Market participants will be closely watching upcoming events and technical indicators for further direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered a significant portion of its weekly losses, climbing 2.56% to around $67,480 on July 26. This rebound comes as traders prepare for former President Donald Trump’s keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on July 27, while also awaiting crucial US inflation data.

Trump Speech Fuels Market Optimism

Market speculation is rife that Trump might announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve policy if he wins reelection in November. The prospect of the United States, the world’s leading economy, potentially becoming a Bitcoin buyer has bolstered market sentiment. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, noted that “nobody wants to short Bitcoin into the weekend,” highlighting the influence of the powerful crypto lobby, which has raised $150 million for the Crypto Super PAC.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Inflation Data and Rate Cut Expectations

Bitcoin’s gains are also supported by the anticipation of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve. The core PCE Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in June, matching May’s increase. Annually, it is projected to grow at 2.5%, slightly below the previous 2.6% but still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Target rate probabilities for September Fed meeting. Source: CME

Recent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell have fueled expectations for two interest rate cuts by year-end, with traders pricing in a 25 basis points cut in September and increasing bets on a similar move in December. Lower rates are typically bullish for non-yielding assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, contributing to Bitcoin’s recovery.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, Bitcoin’s price has bounced off its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA), which has acted as a support level multiple times recently. As of July 26, BTC is targeting the upper trendline of its descending channel pattern, around $68,350, representing a potential 2.50% increase from current levels.

BTC/USD daily candle price chart. Source: TradingView

Additionally, this move could trigger a classic inverse-head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern, potentially leading to further gains in August. If the IH&S pattern plays out, Bitcoin could see an upside target of around $87,440 by October. However, a pullback from the neckline could invalidate this bullish setup, potentially pushing prices below $60,000 in August.

Bitcoin whales have embarked on an extraordinary buying spree, accumulating $23 billion worth of BTC in July, according to new data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. This significant move indicates a strong commitment to current price levels by these large-volume investors.

Whales Boost Holdings by 358,000 BTC

In a July 24 post on X, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted the unprecedented flow of coins to permanent holder addresses, describing it as a wealth transfer unlike anything seen in the history of the crypto market. Over the past month, these permanent holders have added 358,000 BTC to their balances.

Bitcoin permanent holder demand. Source: Ki Young Ju

“Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase,” Ki summarized, pointing out that the amount of BTC moved to permanent holder addresses in July surpasses all previous records, including the period when BTC/USD reached its all-time high of $73,800 in March.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Success

The data also reflects the ongoing success of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as vehicles for institutional BTC exposure. In July alone, global spot ETF inflows amounted to 53,000 BTC. The largest ETF in the United States recorded over $500 million in inflows in a single day on July 22.

However, despite these large inflows, there are warnings that such significant investments often precede corrective BTC price behavior. The recent launch of spot Ether ETFs on July 23 added further complexity to the market narrative, with crypto markets experiencing a notable decline on the second day of trading.

Long-Term Optimism Amid Accumulation Trends

Despite the market fluctuations, Ki remains optimistic about the long-term accumulation trends. “Though not all remaining BTC is in custody wallets, whales are clearly accumulating,” he concluded, emphasizing the unprecedented level of accumulation.

Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Bitcoin Munger

Supporting this sentiment, popular trader and social media commentator Bitcoin Munger shared data on X showing that the largest whale cohort is “furiously accumulating.” The data indicates that only the smallest class of BTC holders, those with 1 BTC or less, are reducing their holdings.

As Bitcoin’s long-term holders continue to show resilience and accumulate more BTC, the market anticipates potential significant moves in the near future, driven by these powerful investors.

Bitcoin is poised for an “explosive rally” as miners conclude their latest capitulation phase, according to the latest data from the hash ribbons indicator. This metric, which monitors two moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, has entered long-term “buy” territory for the first time since mid-May.

Miner Capitulation Ends, Hash Ribbons Data Shows

The hash ribbons indicator tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, reflecting the estimated processing power miners dedicate to the network. A drop in the 30-day moving average below the 60-day moving average suggests miners are struggling, while the reverse indicates a reliable buy signal, historically followed by significant BTC price increases.

Bitcoin hash ribbons. Source: Capriole Investments

On July 23, the hash ribbons indicator exited “capitulation” for the first time in over two months. The last exit occurred in August 2023, when BTC/USD traded at under $30,000. “BTC just witnessed a rare hash ribbon ‘Buy’ signal,” noted popular trader Mikybull Crypto on X, predicting a “massive rally” in a separate post.

BTC/USD chart with hash ribbons data. Source: Mikybull Crypto

Raw data from monitoring resource MiningPoolStats shows Bitcoin hashrate at 676 exahashes per second as of July 22, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

BTC Price Action in Flux

Despite the positive long-term signals, Bitcoin’s price action remains volatile in shorter timeframes. After a recent recovery that pushed the market past $68,000, BTC price action has been in a state of flux. Traders and analysts are watching closely for the next significant movement.

Bitcoin hashrate raw data. Source: MiningPoolStats

The hash ribbons buy signal adds to the growing bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a significant price breakout. As the market reacts to these developments, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s next move.