US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are showing signs of recovery after weeks of sustained outflows, as Bitcoin moved back above the $68,000 mark. Fresh capital flowing into these funds has raised hopes of a turnaround following a prolonged period of investor withdrawals.

ETFs Record Strongest Daily Inflows Since Early February

On Wednesday, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $506.5 million in net inflows, the largest single-day total since February 2. The renewed buying came as Bitcoin traded around $68,212, reinforcing bullish sentiment across the broader crypto market.

According to data from SoSoValue, weekly inflows have now reached $560.4 million. If the trend holds, this would mark the first week of net inflows after five consecutive weeks of withdrawals that saw $3.8 billion exit these funds. February had been particularly difficult, with an estimated $20 billion wiped out from net ETF assets during the market downturn.

The latest numbers suggest investors may be stepping back in as price stability returns.

BlackRock’s IBIT Leads the Charge

Among issuers, BlackRock once again dominated inflows. Its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF attracted $297.4 million on Wednesday, accounting for more than half of the day’s total.

Other major funds also saw renewed interest. The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF brought in $39.4 million, while the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund added $30.1 million.

Trading activity mirrored the improvement in flows. Combined ETF volumes climbed above $4.3 billion, the highest level recorded since February 9. The pickup in both flows and trading suggests that institutional participation is returning after a cautious start to the year.

Market Structure Debate Resurfaces

Even as capital returns to Bitcoin ETFs, questions around market structure and price discovery have resurfaced.

Much of the recent discussion centers on the role of authorized participants and large market-making firms such as Jane Street. These firms play a critical role in creating and redeeming ETF shares, helping maintain alignment between ETF prices and underlying assets.

Source: hodlonaut

Speculation intensified following a lawsuit filed by Terraform Labs administrator Todd Snyder, with rumors circulating online alleging that derivatives exposure and trading strategies may be influencing Bitcoin’s price behavior.

Jeff Park, adviser at Bitwise Asset Management, addressed the debate in a post on X. He stated that no authorized participant is explicitly suppressing Bitcoin’s price. However, he noted that the mechanics of the ETF structure could affect the broader price discovery process in more subtle ways.

According to Park, concerns may not lie in direct manipulation but in how the framework shapes liquidity and trading dynamics. He suggested that understanding these structural details reveals a more complicated picture than simple conspiracy claims.

Lingering Concerns Over “Paper Bitcoin”

The renewed inflows come against a backdrop of continuing debate over so-called paper Bitcoin. Critics argue that some institutions gain price exposure through derivatives or ETF shares without holding actual Bitcoin, potentially distorting supply and demand signals.

The issue gained attention earlier this month when The Kendall Report highlighted ETFs as a possible contributor to synthetic exposure in the market.

Concerns about transparency were further fueled by a recent incident at Bithumb, one of South Korea’s largest crypto exchanges. The platform mistakenly distributed 620,000 BTC that it did not hold, drawing attention to operational controls and reserve verification practices.

While the exchange error was separate from US ETF activity, it amplified broader questions around asset backing and trust in crypto infrastructure.

Cautious Optimism Returns

Despite lingering doubts, the return of capital into US Bitcoin ETFs signals a shift in sentiment. Selling pressure has weighed on the market since October 2025, and many analysts had questioned whether institutional appetite would remain steady.

For now, two consecutive days of substantial inflows suggest that investors are willing to re-engage as Bitcoin stabilizes above $68,000. Whether this momentum continues will likely depend on broader market conditions, regulatory developments, and clarity around how ETF mechanics interact with spot markets.

If weekly inflows remain positive, it could mark a turning point after a challenging stretch for digital asset funds.

Bitcoin climbed back above the $66,000 mark on Wednesday, posting a 2.5 percent gain as traders debated what triggered the latest move. The rebound came amid renewed chatter on social media about possible institutional selling pressure from US trading giant Jane Street, a claim the firm has previously dismissed.

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD rising to $66,300 on Bitstamp before easing into consolidation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was still up more than 2 percent on the day, with market participants divided over whether the move was technical in nature or linked to changes in institutional activity.

Social Media Theory Targets Jane Street

The latest speculation centers on allegations that Jane Street had been conducting coordinated algorithmic selling of Bitcoin at 10 am Eastern Time on a daily basis. According to the theory circulating online, this pattern allegedly applied sustained downward pressure on BTC prices beginning in October 2025.

The claims gained traction as Jane Street faces legal action from Terraform Labs, the collapsed crypto firm behind the Terra ecosystem. In its complaint, Terraform Labs accuses the trading company of engaging in market manipulation that affected digital assets during the 2022 bear market. That year, Bitcoin eventually bottomed near $15,600 in the fourth quarter.

Supporters of the 10 am selling theory argue that if Jane Street was forced to halt or modify its trading strategy due to legal scrutiny, the absence of that systematic selling could explain Bitcoin’s recent bounce.

However, Jane Street has rejected the accusations, calling them baseless and opportunistic. The firm maintains that it did not manipulate crypto markets.

Traders Push Back on the 10 AM “Price Slam” Claim

Not everyone in the crypto community is convinced. Several analysts argue that attributing months of price action to a single trading firm oversimplifies market dynamics.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Jelle/X

Among the skeptics is crypto commentator Wise Advice, who publicly questioned the credibility of the theory. Critics note that Bitcoin trades around the clock across global exchanges, making it difficult for one firm to control direction for an extended period without broader market participation.

Some traders pointed out that the supposed daily 10 am pattern lacks consistent data to support the claim. They argue that while large firms can influence short term volatility, sustained trends typically require macroeconomic drivers, liquidity shifts, and broader sentiment changes.

Resistance at $66K Remains Key

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s push toward $66,000 is significant. Popular trader Jelle highlighted that the zone represents both former local range lows and a four hour trend resistance level.

According to his analysis, a decisive flip of $66,000 into support could open the door for short term relief. Until then, he cautioned that the broader trend remains under pressure and traders should avoid fighting prevailing momentum.

The market’s cautious tone reflects lingering uncertainty. Despite the bounce, many participants are waiting for confirmation through stronger volume and sustained follow through.

Thin Order Books Add Fuel to Volatility

Another factor behind the sharp move may be liquidity conditions. Keith Alan, co founder of trading resource Material Indicators, said that a razor thin order book on exchanges amplified the rebound.

He explained that overhead sell liquidity had been pulled ahead of US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, leaving less resistance in the order book. With fewer sell walls in place, even moderate buying pressure was enough to push prices higher.

Low liquidity environments can exaggerate price swings in both directions. When order books are thin, relatively small market orders can move price more dramatically than usual.

Data from CoinGlass showed that total crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $333 million. Short positions accounted for $213 million of that figure, indicating that bearish traders were caught off guard by the upward move.

Short liquidations can further accelerate rallies, as forced buy orders add to upward pressure. This dynamic may have contributed to Bitcoin’s quick surge toward $66,000.

Market Awaits Clear Direction

While the rebound has lifted short term sentiment, uncertainty remains. Traders continue to weigh technical resistance, liquidity conditions, and broader macro factors alongside the swirling rumors about institutional activity.

Whether the move marks the beginning of a stronger recovery or simply a relief bounce within a larger range remains to be seen. For now, the $66,000 level stands as the immediate battleground, with both bulls and bears watching closely.

The crypto market saw a mix of financial innovation, regulatory optimism and corporate pressure today as major players moved across lending, policy and infrastructure. From a landmark Bitcoin-backed securitization to fresh signals from Washington and renewed scrutiny on mining firms diversifying into AI, the day highlighted how digital assets are becoming more intertwined with traditional finance and broader tech trends.

Ledn completes landmark Bitcoin-backed securitization

Bitcoin-backed lending firm Ledn has entered the mainstream debt market after selling roughly $188 million worth of bonds tied to consumer loans collateralized by Bitcoin. According to people familiar with the matter, the deal places crypto-linked credit products directly into the asset-backed securities market, a space usually dominated by auto loans, credit cards and mortgages.

The transaction was completed through a special purpose vehicle called Ledn Issuer Trust 2026-1. It bundles more than 5,400 short-term, fixed-rate balloon loans issued to nearly 3,000 US borrowers. These loans are secured by over 4,000 Bitcoin held as collateral. Balloon loans typically keep monthly payments low while leaving a large principal amount due at maturity, a structure that appeals to borrowers seeking short-term liquidity.

Brian Armstrong and Bernie Moreno joined CNBC on Wednesday. Source: CNBC

One tranche of the deal, rated investment grade, was priced at a spread of around 335 basis points above a benchmark rate. This pricing suggests that investors are demanding extra yield to compensate for the risks associated with crypto-backed credit compared with traditional consumer debt.

Founded in 2018, Ledn says it has facilitated more than $9.5 billion in loans across over 100 countries. The company received a strategic investment from Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, in late 2025, adding further weight to its balance sheet and market profile.

US CLARITY Act gains momentum in Washington

Regulation also took center stage as US Senator Bernie Moreno expressed confidence that the long-awaited CLARITY Act could pass Congress as early as April. Speaking in an interview with CNBC from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida, Moreno said lawmakers are pushing to resolve long-standing uncertainties around crypto market structure.

The CLARITY Act aims to define regulatory boundaries for digital assets in the United States, an issue that has lingered for years as agencies debate oversight responsibilities. Industry leaders have argued that the lack of clear rules has slowed innovation and driven some firms offshore.

Joining Moreno in the interview, Brian Armstrong said discussions at the World Liberty Financial crypto forum included representatives from crypto firms, banks and members of Congress. One topic that resurfaced was the question of whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yield or rewards.

Traditional banks have previously warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could pull deposits away from the banking system. Supporters counter that such products represent healthy competition and reflect evolving consumer preferences in a digital economy.

Riot Platforms faces pressure to accelerate AI strategy

In the corporate sector, crypto miner Riot Platforms is facing renewed pressure from activist investor Starboard Value to speed up its expansion into high-performance computing and artificial intelligence.

Starboard, which owns about 12.7 million shares of Riot, sent a letter to the company’s leadership urging faster execution on AI and HPC data center projects in Texas. The investor estimates that Riot could unlock between $9 billion and $21 billion in equity value by monetizing its remaining power capacity through AI-focused infrastructure.

According to Starboard, Riot still has around 1.4 gigawatts of gross capacity available, putting it in a strong position to attract major tenants. The firm emphasized that timing matters, arguing that competition for AI data center deals is intensifying and that delays could erode potential returns.

From crypto mining to AI infrastructure

Starboard pointed to Riot’s recently announced agreement with Advanced Micro Devices as a positive but limited step. The deal involves leasing data center space and providing related services, validating the underlying value of Riot’s sites. However, the investor described it as a proof-of-concept rather than a transformative move.

Source: Starboard Value

Like several other miners, Riot has been exploring diversification as mining economics become more volatile and energy-intensive. By repurposing existing infrastructure for AI and HPC workloads, miners hope to stabilize revenue and appeal to a broader set of institutional partners.

Taken together, today’s developments show how crypto firms are branching into traditional finance, engaging more directly with regulators and rethinking their business models. Whether through securitized Bitcoin loans, clearer rules in Washington or a shift toward AI-powered data centers, the sector continues to evolve beyond its early boundaries.

Bitcoin entered the final stretch of the year with an unusual calm, trading close to 88,000 and showing little sign of urgency ahead of the yearly candle close. While some analysts see technical signals hinting at a rebound, the broader picture remains uncertain. A yearly close in the red would mark a first for Bitcoin in the post halving era and could challenge long held beliefs about the four year market cycle.

Weekend Calm Masks Underlying Tension

Bitcoin spent the weekend moving sideways, with TradingView data showing barely any volatility after Friday’s sharp but short lived price swings. Those moves were linked to a record 24 billion dollars worth of options expiring, an event many traders believe temporarily suppressed price action.

Since then, the market has settled into a narrow range. Despite the quiet trading, analysts argue that the lack of volatility itself may be meaningful. Bitcoin is currently hovering just below a key psychological level, leaving traders focused on what the yearly close could signal for the months ahead.

Bullish Divergence Offers a Ray of Hope

Technical analysts have pointed to a developing bullish divergence on the three day relative strength index chart. Trader Jelle highlighted that Bitcoin has locked in a similar divergence at major support levels in the past, with previous instances leading to notable price recoveries.

According to this view, the current setup resembles earlier cycle lows, suggesting that history could repeat itself. However, confirmation would likely require a decisive move higher, something that has so far remained elusive as the year draws to a close.

Seasonality and Institutional Flows in Focus

Other traders are leaning on seasonal trends to support a more optimistic outlook. Trader BitBull suggested that early January often brings renewed capital allocation, particularly from institutions looking to rebalance portfolios and rotate into assets that have underperformed.

If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could see a breakout from its current trendline, opening the door for a push toward the 100,000 level in the new year. This thesis depends largely on fresh inflows rather than short term technical moves, placing emphasis on broader market behavior once the calendar flips.

Low Volatility Reflects a Cooling Phase

Veteran analyst Aksel Kibar said Bitcoin’s current range bound behavior should not come as a surprise. After strong gains during the third quarter, a cooling off period was inevitable.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

Kibar noted that volatility tends to move in cycles, with periods of sharp price action followed by extended consolidation. In his view, the market is waiting for a clean chart pattern before making its next meaningful move, rather than reacting to short term noise.

Yearly Candle Puts Four Year Cycle to the Test

With only days left before the yearly close, Bitcoin is down roughly 6 percent for the year. If the price fails to recover, 2025 would become the first red year following a halving event, a statistic that has sparked debate about whether the traditional four year cycle model still applies.

Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, stressed that closing prices matter more than temporary wicks beyond key levels. He said the color of the yearly candle could offer important macro insights when markets reopen in January.

Alan also pointed out that Bitcoin could still attempt a last minute retest of the yearly open near 93,500. Such a move would not only shift sentiment but also help preserve the historical pattern that many long term investors continue to watch closely.

As Bitcoin sits near 88,000, the market remains caught between technical optimism and historical uncertainty. Whether the year ends with a recovery or a red candle, the outcome is likely to shape expectations for the next phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle.

Bitcoin hovered close to the crucial $90,000 level on Friday as traders shifted their focus toward renewed downside targets. The rejection at the 2025 yearly open continued to weigh on market sentiment and encouraged calls for a potential slide back to the low $80,000 region.

Bitcoin Slips Toward $90,000

Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin trading almost two percent lower than Thursday’s close. The leading cryptocurrency failed to reclaim momentum after its recent rejection and traders prepared for deeper support tests. Many market participants noted that the broader structure suggested weakening demand in the short term.

Traders Highlight Thin Buy-Side Liquidity

Market watchers pointed to liquidity clusters that suggest further volatility ahead. Trading account Exitpump stated that order book heatmaps revealed a thin bid environment, with more substantial buy walls only appearing near $86,000 and lower. The trader added that filling market gaps and resetting open interest would be a constructive move for Bitcoin’s long term trend.

BTC/USDT perpetual contract three-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Crypto investor Ted Pillows echoed this view using liquidity data from CoinGlass. He identified two key clusters: upside liquidity near $94,500 and downside liquidity around $90,000. He suggested that a sweep of the lower liquidity band before any recovery would be a logical development. He described the current setup as one of those clean the lows then decide moments that often guide market reversals.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades emphasised the importance of maintaining the higher timeframe region around $88,000 to avoid stronger bearish momentum. He noted that Bitcoin ideally should not lose this zone again.

Ichimoku Cloud Signals a Potential Drop

Technical analyst Titan of Crypto relied on Ichimoku Cloud indicators to outline possible future lows. His analysis pointed back toward the mid to low $80,000 range as a potential support area. He highlighted that Bitcoin had taken the previous weekly high but failed to close above the Kijun line, weakening bullish conviction.

BTC/USDT one-day chart with Ichimoku Cloud data. Source: Titan of Crypto/X

He added that a pullback to the Tenkan line appeared likely in the coming sessions. If this level fails to hold, the next notable support sits close to $83,900 which matches the local lows seen earlier in the week.

Market Awaits Signs of Strength

Despite the short term weakness, several analysts noted that a controlled drawdown could be healthy for Bitcoin’s broader trend. Sweeping liquidity, refilling bids and resetting overheated positions may create a stronger foundation for a future advance. Traders now watch the $88,000 to $90,000 zone closely as Bitcoin attempts to stabilise. Any decisive loss of these levels could open the path toward the low $80,000 band which multiple technical indicators now highlight.

The Bitcoin mining sector is confronting what analysts describe as its most punishing economic phase since the industry began. Mining revenues have dropped to structural lows, operational costs continue to climb and payback periods for new hardware now stretch beyond one thousand days. TheMinerMag’s latest assessment paints a stark picture, showing that even the industry’s largest players are struggling to stay profitable.

Hashprice Declines to Structural Lows

Hashprice, a key metric measuring miner earnings per unit of computing power, has fallen dramatically. It averaged nearly fifty five dollars per petahash per second during the third quarter, yet now sits around thirty five dollars per petahash per second. TheMinerMag describes this as a structural low rather than a temporary fluctuation.

Bitcoin mining costs across major publicly traded miners. Source: TheMinerMag

This drop has been driven in part by a sharp fall in Bitcoin’s market value. The cryptocurrency slid from a record high close to one hundred twenty six thousand dollars in October to under eighty thousand dollars in November. Lower prices reduce mining rewards, leaving operators with thinning margins even before rising costs are factored in.

Rising Costs Expose Efficiency Gaps

As revenues shrink, the cost per hash has become an essential indicator of competitiveness. It measures how effectively miners convert electricity and capital into computational power. The metric now reveals a widening divide between only the most efficient operators and the wider industry struggling to adapt.

The report notes that new generation mining machines need more than one thousand days to break even at current conditions. This is a major concern since the next Bitcoin halving event is about eight hundred fifty days away, an event that will further reduce mining rewards.

Debt Reduction Becomes the New Priority

With margins tightening, mining companies are reassessing their balance sheets. TheMinerMag highlights CleanSpark’s recent repayment of its Bitcoin backed credit line with Coinbase as an example of a broader shift in strategy. Firms are de risking, cutting debt and focusing on liquidity preservation rather than aggressive expansion.

Mining Stocks Suffer Steep Declines

The downturn in Bitcoin’s price has coincided with wider market weakness, hitting mining equities hard. TheMinerMag’s third quarter report points to a significant sell off beginning in mid October.

MARA stock’s year-to-date performance. Source: Yahoo Finance

MARA Holdings has dropped by around fifty percent from its mid October peak. CleanSpark shares have fallen by thirty seven percent. Riot Platforms is down thirty two percent. HIVE Digital Technologies has suffered the most severe decline, losing fifty four percent of its value since October.

Industry Faces a Challenging Road Ahead

With revenues falling, costs rising and the next halving approaching, the mining industry is navigating a period of intense pressure. Only operators with the most efficient hardware and strongest financial structures appear positioned to endure the current environment. Analysts warn that without a rebound in Bitcoin prices or significant efficiency gains, more miners could face consolidation or closure in the months ahead.

Bitcoin appears to have established a strong support level around $80,000, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. The cryptocurrency slipped more than 35 percent from its all-time high when it touched $80,500 last week. Hayes believes the decline has run its course and expects a recovery fuelled by improving liquidity in the United States.

Hayes Predicts $80,000 Will Hold

Sharing his outlook on X, Hayes argued that the recent dip marked the latest floor for Bitcoin. He told followers that he expects price action to remain choppy under $90,000 with the possibility of one more brief drop into the low $80,000 range. He expressed confidence that the $80,000 level will remain intact.

BTC/USD drawdowns from all-time highs. Source: Glassnode

His optimism is driven by what he describes as gradual improvements in dollar liquidity. He pointed out that bank lending rose in November and that the overall financial environment is shifting in favour of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

End of Quantitative Tightening Seen as Key Catalyst

A major factor behind Hayes’s bullish stance is the approaching conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening programme. The central bank is expected to halt the reduction of its balance sheet next month. He believes this marks the beginning of a more supportive liquidity backdrop for both Bitcoin and alternative digital assets.

According to Hayes, a reversal toward more accommodative measures such as quantitative easing would significantly improve market momentum. He previously noted that Bitcoin often responds positively when global liquidity expands.

Stocks May Need to Fall Before Full Crypto Rebound

Hayes has maintained a consistently positive view on Bitcoin even as the market pulled back from record highs in October. He suggested that equities must undergo a sharp correction similar to the recent decline in crypto before a broader recovery can begin. He described this shift as necessary to set the stage for renewed money creation and a sustained rise in digital asset prices.

He mentioned that technology shares, specifically those linked to artificial intelligence, may need to retreat to encourage the liquidity environment required for a strong crypto uptrend.

Rate Cut Expectations Swing Sharply

The wider financial backdrop remains uncertain. Market expectations for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate move have been highly volatile. Predictions for a 0.25 percent rate cut at the December meeting jumped to nearly 79 percent on Monday. This figure stood at about 42 percent only a week earlier, reflecting the unusual instability in forecasts.

Fed target rate probability comparison (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The fluctuations follow limited macroeconomic data during the recent US government shutdown. Economist Mohamed El-Erian highlighted the sharp movement in expectations, calling it “stunning”. He argued that this level of volatility runs counter to the Federal Reserve’s usual goal of stability. He attributed the situation to a mix of disrupted data, intensified policy pressures, a Chair nearing the end of tenure and the absence of a clear long-term strategic framework.