BTC started a new week, month, and quarter with a robust upward movement, breaching the $28,000 mark. The cryptocurrency community welcomes “Uptober” with optimism as BTC records its best weekly close since mid-August.
October’s Historical Significance
Historically, October has witnessed significant price gains for BTC. Enthusiasts are eager to see if this trend continues, given the positive start to the month.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
October’s macroeconomic data in the United States appears to be in a quiet phase, and the government has averted a shutdown, reducing immediate macro triggers. Bitcoin’s performance may not be significantly impacted by macroeconomic factors at this juncture.
While BTC’s spot price exhibits bullish momentum, its fundamentals do not entirely mirror this enthusiasm. Bitcoin mining difficulty is poised to decrease by 0.7% at the next automated readjustment on October 2, marking a shift from the recent trend.
Bitcoin bulls are cautiously optimistic as the cryptocurrency surged to nearly $28,000. However, some traders anticipate a potential retracement. The market’s direction now depends on spot traders’ actions.
Classic “Uptober” or Something Different?
This year’s October appears distinct from the previous year, as BTC exhibits a strong start. In 2021, October began with a slight dip and ultimately led to a sideways month. This year’s “Uptober” resembles the more traditional October patterns seen in previous years.
BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Keith Alan/X
Traders are suggesting that Bitcoin has broken its mid-term downtrend, retested it, and is now embarking on the next upward leg. Many anticipate further price increases, with some even speculating a move beyond $30,000, a level not seen since June.
Historical Positivity in October
Data reveals that in eight out of the previous ten Octobers, Bitcoin has shown positive performance, with average returns of approximately 22%.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
In a departure from recent norms, Bitcoin network fundamentals do not align with the bullish sentiment in spot markets. Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is set to decrease by 0.7% in the upcoming automated readjustment on October 2.
As Bitcoin enthusiasts navigate the month of “Uptober,” they remain cautiously optimistic, closely monitoring both price movements and fundamental shifts in the cryptocurrency landscape.