The Bitcoin (BTC) market has long been associated with repeating patterns, commonly referred to as the 4-year cycle. While not a guaranteed rule, this cycle theory has gained traction because of Bitcoin’s historical price movements since its inception.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading about 9% below its August 14, 2025, all-time high of $124,474. Many analysts and investors are looking ahead to see whether the cycle is about to peak again, possibly later in 2025. To understand what could be next, it’s important to compare Bitcoin’s current trajectory with past cycles.
What Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle?
The 4-year cycle concept comes from the impact of Bitcoin halving events, which occur roughly every four years. Each halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, historically sparking bull runs that last until a major top forms, followed by a deep correction.
BTC Cycle Comparison | Credit: Glassnode
The 2013 cycle peaked with a strong parabolic rise.
The 2017 cycle also delivered a rapid surge before crashing.
The 2021 cycle, however, showed a more gradual rise with a double top, where Bitcoin formed two peaks before heading into a bear market.
This repeating behaviour has led to speculation that the next top could occur in late 2025, fitting neatly into the 4-year cycle pattern.
Comparing Bitcoin’s Current Cycle to 2021
The current cycle is showing strong similarities to the one that ended in 2021. Two key points stand out:
Double Top Formation – In 2021, Bitcoin first peaked in April, then corrected, before reaching another all-time high in November. The current pattern looks similar, with two highs forming and a lengthy correction between them.
BTC/USDT 2-Week Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
Technical Indicators – Momentum signals such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are showing weakening trends. In 2021, both indicators turned bearish after divergences appeared near the top. At present, bearish divergences are also visible, but RSI and MACD have not yet fully crossed into bearish territory. This suggests the peak might still be a few months away.
Overall, the signs indicate that the market is slowing down in a way that closely mirrors the 2021 top rather than the explosive run of 2017.
Why 2017 Looks Different
The 2017 cycle cannot be easily compared to today. That bull run was defined by a parabolic price increase, where Bitcoin surged almost without pause until its $20,000 top in December.
The RSI at the time reached as high as 90, showing extreme overbought conditions without any bearish divergences.
The final three monthly candles were strongly bullish, reflecting intense buying pressure right until the top.
BTC/USDT Monthly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
Today, Bitcoin looks much calmer. With the RSI at around 71 and already flashing bearish divergence, it’s unlikely we will see a repeat of 2017’s parabolic climb. For such a move to occur, Bitcoin would need to rally past $200,000 in a very short time, a scenario that looks improbable given current market dynamics.
When Could the Next Peak Arrive?
Based on cycle theory and past patterns, analysts suggest that the next potential top could arrive between October and November 2025. The size of the rally, however, remains uncertain.
If the cycle behaves like 2017, the price could enter a parabolic rally, but this appears unlikely.
If the cycle mirrors 2021, Bitcoin may only climb moderately higher before forming its next major top.
Some analysts also argue that Bitcoin could eventually break away from the 4-year cycle entirely, especially as the market matures and institutional participation grows. If that happens, BTC could extend its bullish phase well into 2026 or 2027, rewriting expectations for cycle timing.
Bitcoin’s journey has always been a mix of repeating history and surprising deviations. While the 4-year cycle model suggests that 2025 could bring the next major peak, current data shows the market is behaving more like 2021 than 2017.
This means we may not see the dramatic parabolic surge that defined earlier cycles, but instead a steadier climb followed by a controlled correction. Investors should remain cautious, watch key indicators like RSI and MACD, and prepare for volatility as the cycle approaches its potential peak in late 2025.
