Bitcoin recent stability might not last long, as on-chain data suggests a surge in volatility is imminent. According to crypto options platform Derive, BTC’s low volatility phase is nearing an end, setting the stage for major price swings—up or down.

Bitcoin’s Volatility at Record Lows

Since March 12, Bitcoin has been trading between $80K and $85K, following a sharp drop from its $100K all-time high. The decline was driven by Trump’s new tariffs and disappointment over the U.S. strategic BTC reserve’s inactivity.

Key volatility indicators are now near monthly lows:

• Weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has dropped to 49%, nearing the 45% low.
• Realized volatility has plummeted from 91% to 54% since the start of March.

However, volatility is mean-reverting, meaning this calm phase could soon give way to rapid price movements.

What Could Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Move?

Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could fuel BTC’s next volatility surge, including:

• A ceasefire (or lack of one) in Ukraine.
• Regulatory shifts under Trump’s administration.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday.

If the Fed signals rate cuts, Bitcoin could rally as liquidity expectations shift. However, BlackRock warns that rate cuts may be limited due to persistent inflation.

Bitcoin’s fate is also tied to traditional markets. If equities continue to slide, crypto prices could follow. A worsening economic outlook could accelerate BTC’s decline, reinforcing its recent correlation with risk assets.

Brace for a Market Shake-Up

Derive’s analysis suggests Bitcoin’s volatility will soon spike to February’s 60-70% range. While the direction remains uncertain, traders should prepare for sharp price moves in either direction.

Whether BTC breaks out or tumbles further, the next few weeks could bring high-stakes market action.