Bitcoin’s price trajectory may be preparing for a significant breakout, as long-term holders (LTHs) now possess over 80% of the total circulating supply, a milestone that historically precedes major rallies. According to on-chain data and insights from analyst CrediBULL Crypto, this pattern has only occurred twice before, and each time led to gains of 72% and 84%.
LTHs, defined as wallets holding BTC for at least 155 days, have steadily increased their share of the total supply. As of June 5, these investors held a record 14.7 million BTC, worth roughly $1.6 trillion. This increasing concentration of Bitcoin in the hands of ‘diamond hands’ drastically reduces liquid supply, creating conditions ripe for a supply shock.
Historical Fractals Hint at $150K Bitcoin
The current setup echoes past fractals that preceded explosive moves higher. In both February and October 2024, when LTH supply crossed the 80% threshold, Bitcoin surged by 72% and 84% respectively. Analysts believe that history may soon repeat or even exceed expectations.
BTC: LTH supply. Source: Bitcoin Magazine
CrediBULL Crypto stated on X:
“Over 80% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is currently being HODL’d. With this level of supply lock-up, the next impulse is imminent. This one could be bigger than the last, potentially taking BTC above $150,000.”
The implication is clear: once excess supply is absorbed by long-term holders, any incremental demand whether retail or institutional is met with limited available BTC, leading to sharper price increases.
Options Market Eyes $130K Bitcoin by September
Crypto derivatives traders are also bracing for a potential breakout. Activity on Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange, shows a surge in open interest around September $130,000 call options, a bet that Bitcoin could reach or exceed that level in the coming months.
BTC: Total supply held by LTH. Source: Glassnode
QCP Capital, a Singapore-based digital asset trading firm, commented in a July 7 investor note:
“Vols remain pinned near historical lows, but a decisive breach of the $110,000 resistance could spark a renewed volatility bid.”
The firm noted increased positioning in September $115,000–$140,000 call spreads, reflecting strong bullish sentiment for Q3. This implies that sophisticated market participants are preparing for a rapid and extended move upwards, should BTC break past the $110,000 barrier.
Liquidity Clusters Point to Breakout Zones
Supporting this view, data from CoinGlass reveals major liquidity pools in the $110,000–$130,000 range, with notable ask orders clustered between $122,000 and $130,000. These levels are expected to act as key battlegrounds once Bitcoin enters price discovery mode.
BTC/USDT three-day liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
With minimal sell pressure below these zones and strong options positioning, a breakout could trigger cascading buy orders and liquidations of short positions.
Illiquid Supply Meets Institutional Demand
As long-term holders tighten their grip on Bitcoin’s circulating supply, and institutional players continue steady accumulation, the likelihood of a major bullish impulse increases. The current macro setup, a combination of illiquidity, historical fractals, and speculative bets, paints a compelling picture for Bitcoin’s next leg.
If momentum builds and BTC decisively clears $110,000, market participants may soon witness a fresh all-time high and a sprint toward the much-anticipated $130,000–$150,000 range.
