Bitcoin has started September on the back foot, recording new multi-week lows while gold surges towards fresh highs. Traders and analysts warn that the coming weeks could prove challenging for crypto markets, with macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional retreat adding to the pressure.
Bitcoin Tests New Local Lows
Bitcoin slipped to $107,270 after the weekly open before rebounding towards $110,000 in typically volatile holiday trading. Market sentiment remains cautious, with many traders eyeing $100,000 as a psychological support level.
Some analysts, such as CrypNuevo, suggest that a deeper pullback could see Bitcoin wick as low as $94,000 to flush out long positions and fill a minor CME gap. At the same time, upside targets remain in play, with $112,000 to $115,000 identified as potential short squeeze levels.
Tariff Turmoil and Labour Market Data
US markets were closed for Labour Day, leaving traders waiting to assess the fallout from recent trade tariff uncertainty. A federal appeals court ruled that President Donald Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs, casting doubt over current arrangements.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Trump pledged to fight to keep tariffs intact, warning of economic decline if they were removed. The dispute adds to market tension ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where a widely expected interest rate cut could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets.
With inflation pressures persisting and labour market indicators softening, unemployment claims due this week are seen as pivotal. Analysts stress that this will be the last round of labour market data before the Fed delivers its September decision.
Gold Nears Record Highs as Bitcoin Sags
Gold surged to $3,489 per ounce on Monday, within reach of its all-time high set in April. The move highlights renewed demand for traditional safe havens, in sharp contrast to Bitcoin’s recent weakness.
Analysts point to rising inflation concerns, seasonal strength and last week’s PCE inflation data as drivers of the rally. September has historically been one of gold’s strongest months, giving further weight to bullish sentiment.
Prominent Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff argued that gold’s breakout signals deeper weakness for digital assets, declaring Bitcoin “poised to go much lower.”
Institutional Buyers Step Back
Bitcoin’s price slump has coincided with declining institutional appetite. Data from Farside Investors showed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $126.7 million last Friday, erasing gains earlier in the week.
August proved especially difficult, marking the second-worst month on record for ETF outflows at $750 million. Capriole Investments reported that institutional Bitcoin buying has dropped to its lowest level since April, though demand still represents double the daily supply mined.
September Historically Weak for Bitcoin
Seasonality remains a concern for traders as Bitcoin enters what has traditionally been its worst month. Over the past 12 years, September has averaged negative returns of 3.5%, with many of Bitcoin’s most bullish years still producing red candles.
The cryptocurrency closed August down 6.5%, its fourth consecutive monthly loss, making this the first post-halving year in which August ended in the red. Some analysts, however, suggest that institutional adoption may be weakening the traditional four-year halving cycle, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s longer-term performance patterns.
Outlook
Bitcoin’s early September performance underscores the headwinds facing risk assets as gold benefits from safe-haven demand. With tariff disputes, labour market data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy move all looming, traders are bracing for heightened volatility. Whether Bitcoin can hold the $100,000 support zone or face a deeper correction may depend on the balance between macroeconomic risks and institutional sentiment in the weeks ahead.
