Bitcoin has showcased resilience, holding firm above $97,000 despite the expiration of over $14.2 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options contracts on 27 December. This expiry, which occurred at 8:00 a.m. UTC, marked the final major options expiry of 2024. The ‘max pain’ price—the level at which most options contracts would expire worthless—was set at $85,000, raising concerns about a potential downturn. However, Bitcoin defied expectations, peaking at $97,330 just an hour after the event, according to Tradingview.
Bitcoin ETF Flow (USD. million). Source: Farside Investors
The broader cryptocurrency market saw a total of $18 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) options expire, according to a Dec. 26 post by Deribit Exchange. The exchange highlighted the market’s heavy leverage to the upside, cautioning that any significant downside could trigger a rapid snowball effect. Analysts believe the outcome of this expiry could shape market trends as the sector heads into 2025.
$110K in Sight for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s strong performance post-expiry has analysts optimistic about its near-term prospects. Based on Bitcoin’s correlation with the global liquidity index, some experts predict BTC could peak at a local top above $110,000 in January before facing a potential correction. However, the asset faces significant resistance around the $98,000 mark, which could prove pivotal for its next move. A rally beyond this level would liquidate over $885 million worth of leveraged short positions across all exchanges, as per Coinglass data.
ETF Inflows Boost Bitcoin’s Rally
Adding to Bitcoin’s momentum, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States ended a four-day losing streak with significant inflows on Dec. 26. According to Farside Investors, the ETFs received over $475 million in net positive inflows following the Christmas holidays. Throughout 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have played a vital role in supporting the cryptocurrency’s rally, accounting for approximately 75% of new investments in Bitcoin. This influx of capital helped push BTC past the $50,000 milestone earlier in the year.
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, anticipates that post-holiday institutional liquidity could further strengthen Bitcoin’s position. “Post-Christmas, market activity typically picks up again, with funds expected to actively position for sectors that might benefit from Trump’s upcoming inauguration,” he told. Analysts forecast that returning liquidity could help push Bitcoin beyond $105,000 in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Exchange Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass
2025 Outlook: Optimism Amid Macro Improvements
Looking ahead to 2025, market analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s trajectory. Some experts project BTC could reach as high as $160,000, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions and favorable financial policies in the United States. Institutional interest, combined with rising demand for Bitcoin ETFs, could continue to serve as a significant catalyst for growth in the coming year.
For now, Bitcoin’s resilience amidst high-stakes market events reinforces its status as a leading digital asset, with investors eagerly watching its next moves as the year closes and 2025 begins.
