Bitcoin has recently approached a crucial bull market trendline that previously led to 30% gains. Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s price is retesting the short-term holder’s (STH) realized price, bringing short-term holders back into profit territory.
Bitcoin Price Sends Short-Term Holders into the Black
The activity of Bitcoin’s STH cohort is a critical reference point during bull markets, as their aggregate cost basis often forms long-term price support. Since the bull market began in early 2023, BTC/USD has only briefly dipped below the STH realized price. This trend is coming to an end, with STH entities—those holding BTC for 155 days or less—no longer experiencing losses.
Bitcoin STH realized price. Source: CryptoQuant
“Recently, the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the STH Realized Price,” CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn noted in a blog post on July 18. “This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.” Maartunn also highlighted that since 2023, Bitcoin reclaiming the STH realized price has led to at least 30% profits twice.
STH Realized Price Variations and Profitability Declines
The exact level of the STH realized price varies by source, with CryptoQuant’s estimate being slightly lower than others. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode, in its July 16 newsletter, reported that the STH realized price was $64,300 at the time of writing. Glassnode also noted a dramatic decline in STH profitability, with more than 66% of their supply moving into an unrealized loss over the past 30 days.
BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X
Key Resistance and Market Sentiment
The area around $65,000 remains a crucial target for Bitcoin bulls to convert into support. A well-known trader and former fund manager, Aksel Kibar, expressed optimism, stating, “This is the 5th month $BTCUSD is not backing off from the strong resistance around 65K. I see this as very bullish long-term. Sticking to a resistance and no intention of selling off is usually a sign of a pending breakout.”
Volume Concerns and Market Dynamics
However, popular crypto trader JT cautioned that BTC/USD needs to break through several Fibonacci retracement levels for a shot at new all-time highs. He also noted that trading volume has significantly decreased since the recent price pump off the $53,000 low, highlighting that current volumes are below-average profiles.
BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: JT/X
In summary, Bitcoin’s approach to the key STH realized price trendline and the market dynamics around $65,000 suggest the potential for significant gains, though concerns about trading volume remain.
