Bitcoin began the week on a high note, with prices touching fresh peaks before retreating as traders weighed the likelihood of a retracement towards the $117,000 mark. This comes after the creation of a new CME futures gap over the weekend, with analysts warning it could soon be filled.
BTC Surges to $122,000 Before Cooling
Following the weekly close, Bitcoin surged past $122,000, hitting $122,312 on Bitstamp before easing lower. The move triggered more than $100 million in short liquidations, briefly pushing prices within reach of all-time highs. Monitoring platform CoinGlass showed fresh resistance building above $123,000, while analysts suggested a pullback may be necessary before further gains.
BTC/USD one-hour chart.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe cautioned that weekend moves often reverse, predicting tests of lower levels that could trigger “buy the dip” opportunities in altcoins. Meanwhile, trader BitBull noted a bullish signal in the low ratio of leveraged futures to spot buying — a sign the rally is driven by sustained spot demand rather than fragile leveraged positions.
Focus on the CME Gap
Weekend price action left a gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures, a phenomenon closely watched by traders. Such gaps are often “filled” when the market returns to the absent price range. Filling the latest gap would require a drop to around $117,200 — a key zone that recently acted as both resistance and support. Analyst Rekt Capital described this level as decisive for Bitcoin’s broader recovery trend.
Inflation Data in Spotlight
The market’s next major cue could come from US inflation figures. July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are due this week, with traders looking for signals on Federal Reserve policy.
Expectations for a September rate cut have strengthened, with CME Group data showing nearly 90% odds — up from 57% a month ago. A softer-than-expected CPI reading could boost risk assets, while a surprise increase may dampen sentiment. Analysts also point to rising unemployment as a factor likely to push CPI lower, potentially fuelling the rally.
Whales Hold Fire on Profit-Taking
On-chain data suggests large Bitcoin holders are not rushing to sell. CryptoQuant noted that whale transfers of Tether (USDT) exceeding $10 million often precede BTC corrections, but such activity has been absent in recent days. Previous spikes in whale USDT transactions on 16 and 23 July coincided with price drops of 4.5% and 3.8% respectively. The lack of similar moves now is seen as a positive sign for short-term stability.
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Coinbase Premium Raises Questions
Despite the bullish tone, concerns remain over the strength of the breakout. The Coinbase Premium Index — measuring the price gap between Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair and Binance’s BTC/USDT pair — has turned negative. Analyst J. A. Maartunn questioned whether the surge from $118,000 to $122,000 was a “pump and dump”, noting the shift in premium immediately after the rally.
Cautious voices also emerged in the Ethereum market, with trader Roman warning that low trading volumes and bearish divergences could limit upside, despite ETH reaching its highest level since late 2021.
