Bitcoin’s price action has traders anticipating key developments as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium approaches. Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around intraday highs of $61,000 on Aug. 23, with markets eagerly awaiting a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Traders Eye Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
At the heart of the event is Powell’s upcoming address, scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern Time. Market participants are closely watching for potential clues on the Fed’s future financial policies, particularly the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Analysts and traders are now pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, which could be a bullish signal for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
“The question is no longer whether the Fed will cut rates or not,” commented The Kobeissi Letter on X (formerly Twitter). “The question is, will they cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September?” Current data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that the odds are leaning toward a smaller 0.25% rate cut.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
However, not everyone expects Powell’s speech to contain surprises. Former Fed official Lou Crandall told CNBC that he doesn’t anticipate any major revelations, as the Fed may prefer to avoid providing guidance so far ahead of the next policy meeting.
BTC Price and Market Dynamics
Despite the potential for rate cuts to boost liquidity for risk assets, history suggests that Bitcoin’s price might not react immediately. In 2019, the last time the Fed cut rates, BTC’s price saw a slight decline before the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic measures fueled a major bull run.
BTC/USD vs. Fed funds rate. Source: Luke Martin/X
Currently, Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow range, facing resistance at the $62,000 level. Monitoring resource CoinGlass highlighted an additional block of liquidity at $61,435, contributing to the price stagnation. Traders are watching closely, with many predicting that a breakout could see BTC surge to $64,000–$65,000, while a rejection could lead to further consolidation.
