The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has been closing the gap with Bitcoin’s price, moving closer to a 1:1 ratio despite Bitcoin experiencing a three-month low. This article examines the evolving relationship between GBTC and Bitcoin, highlighting recent developments and their implications.

GBTC Approaching Parity

GBTC, a prominent Bitcoin investment vehicle, is currently trading at just a 17% discount compared to the BTC price. This narrowing discount is a notable development as GBTC inches closer to trading at the same price as Bitcoin itself.

GBTC’s resurgence can be attributed in part to BlackRock’s announcement of plans to file for the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price-based exchange-traded fund (ETF). This news bolstered GBTC’s prospects, especially as Grayscale was already engaged in a legal battle with U.S. regulators over transforming GBTC into a spot ETF.

SEC’s ETF Hurdle

Despite the positive outlook, it’s worth noting that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to approve any spot ETF applications, recently postponing decisions on multiple such projects. Nevertheless, Grayscale secured a significant industry victory against the SEC, further supporting GBTC’s price performance.

The discount, which was once referred to as the “GBTC Premium,” has now reduced to just 17.17% as of September 9. This is the narrowest gap seen since December 2021, marking a substantial improvement from the significant negative discount that reached nearly 50% at one point.

Bitcoin’s Price Struggles

In contrast to GBTC’s positive momentum, Bitcoin’s price continues to face challenges, currently trading below $25,500. September historically tends to be a weak month for BTC/USD, often experiencing losses of up to 10%.

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may see a turnaround in late November, historically marked as the “bull run launch” date during pre-halving years. This suggests the potential for renewed strength in Bitcoin’s price.