Bitcoin appears to have established a strong support level around $80,000, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. The cryptocurrency slipped more than 35 percent from its all-time high when it touched $80,500 last week. Hayes believes the decline has run its course and expects a recovery fuelled by improving liquidity in the United States.
Hayes Predicts $80,000 Will Hold
Sharing his outlook on X, Hayes argued that the recent dip marked the latest floor for Bitcoin. He told followers that he expects price action to remain choppy under $90,000 with the possibility of one more brief drop into the low $80,000 range. He expressed confidence that the $80,000 level will remain intact.
BTC/USD drawdowns from all-time highs. Source: Glassnode
His optimism is driven by what he describes as gradual improvements in dollar liquidity. He pointed out that bank lending rose in November and that the overall financial environment is shifting in favour of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
End of Quantitative Tightening Seen as Key Catalyst
A major factor behind Hayes’s bullish stance is the approaching conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening programme. The central bank is expected to halt the reduction of its balance sheet next month. He believes this marks the beginning of a more supportive liquidity backdrop for both Bitcoin and alternative digital assets.
According to Hayes, a reversal toward more accommodative measures such as quantitative easing would significantly improve market momentum. He previously noted that Bitcoin often responds positively when global liquidity expands.
Stocks May Need to Fall Before Full Crypto Rebound
Hayes has maintained a consistently positive view on Bitcoin even as the market pulled back from record highs in October. He suggested that equities must undergo a sharp correction similar to the recent decline in crypto before a broader recovery can begin. He described this shift as necessary to set the stage for renewed money creation and a sustained rise in digital asset prices.
He mentioned that technology shares, specifically those linked to artificial intelligence, may need to retreat to encourage the liquidity environment required for a strong crypto uptrend.
Rate Cut Expectations Swing Sharply
The wider financial backdrop remains uncertain. Market expectations for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate move have been highly volatile. Predictions for a 0.25 percent rate cut at the December meeting jumped to nearly 79 percent on Monday. This figure stood at about 42 percent only a week earlier, reflecting the unusual instability in forecasts.
Fed target rate probability comparison (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The fluctuations follow limited macroeconomic data during the recent US government shutdown. Economist Mohamed El-Erian highlighted the sharp movement in expectations, calling it “stunning”. He argued that this level of volatility runs counter to the Federal Reserve’s usual goal of stability. He attributed the situation to a mix of disrupted data, intensified policy pressures, a Chair nearing the end of tenure and the absence of a clear long-term strategic framework.
