Bitcoin is currently hovering around $68,952, trapped within a constricting trading range as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming US Presidential Election on November 5. Throughout October, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain momentum above the $69,000 mark, with each breakout attempt leading to a retreat towards a support zone between $64,000 and $67,000.
Political Uncertainty Pressures Bitcoin
The close nature of the presidential race, particularly between Donald Trump, who has taken a pro-crypto stance, and Kamala Harris, whose policies on digital assets remain less defined, is impacting Bitcoin’s price movement. Recent polls from CBS News/YouGov indicate a tight contest, with Harris holding a slight edge at 50% to Trump’s 49%. Conversely, betting markets like Polymarket suggest Trump has a clearer path to victory, showing a 66.5% probability of winning compared to Harris’s 33.5%.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
This uncertainty has left traders in a state of flux, preferring to refrain from major trading decisions until the election results clarify the future regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
Mixed Signals in the Market
Conflicting sentiments between US retail investors and institutional players further complicate the situation. On October 25, the Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase and other global exchanges, fell to its lowest yearly figure of -0.20. This indicates heightened selling pressure from retail traders. However, institutional confidence remains strong, evidenced by Bitcoin Spot ETFs recording a remarkable $402 million in inflows.
Presidential election winner 2024 bets. Source: Polymarket
Bull Flag Indicates Possible Breakout
Despite the current stagnation, Bitcoin is testing the upper trendline of a bull flag formation after breaking through it on October 15. Yet, the lack of strong momentum and moderate trading volume during recent breakout attempts suggest that traders are biding their time for a more definitive signal before making significant moves.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 60, indicating a moderately bullish trend without being overbought. If Bitcoin manages to confirm a breakout, analysts predict a target price around $101,608, suggesting a potential move towards the coveted $100,000 mark if bullish momentum gathers strength.
