Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant rally by the end of 2024, according to the latest report from 10x Research. The report examines macroeconomic factors, seasonal patterns, and potential catalysts that may drive Bitcoin’s price higher in the coming months.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, shared that the anticipated FTX payout could serve as a key driver for Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. Thielen noted, “The proposed $5–$8 billion inflow could spark a melt-up in risk assets, particularly as the US Federal Reserve hints at further rate cuts. This could lead investors to reposition their portfolios for 2025.”
Seasonal Strength and Market Trends
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong performance from October through March, and the 10x Research report suggests that 2024 could follow this seasonal trend. Similar patterns were observed in previous market cycles in 2014, 2017, and 2021. Despite a bearish outlook earlier in the year, Bitcoin’s performance so far has aligned with its typical seasonal strength.
Key Catalysts and Risks for Bitcoin
While the report is optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for a year-end rally, it also highlights several external factors that could serve as catalysts. These include the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, inflation concerns, and political developments ahead of the US elections.
However, the report cautions investors about Bitcoin’s history of sharp drawdowns, noting that managing trades around key levels, such as the previous cycle high of $68,330 and the 21-week moving average, is crucial for risk management.
Gold Surge Adds to the Bullish Outlook
Meanwhile, gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has surged over 5% since September 9, driven by geopolitical tensions and interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve’s recent 0.5% rate cut further boosted gold, which reached a record high of $2,629 per ounce on September 23. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin could also benefit from this risk-off environment, adding to its potential for a strong finish to the year.
