Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs that a significant rally could occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by historical price trends and current market dynamics. Despite a solid start to the year, with Bitcoin rising over 40%, the price has yet to surpass its pre-halving all-time high, leaving analysts speculating about the future.

Bitcoin’s Halving Year History Points to Strong Q4 Performance

The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with anticipation, especially as previous halving cycles have seen Bitcoin post impressive gains. Data from Coinglass highlights that in Q4 of halving years, Bitcoin has consistently delivered positive returns. For instance, it gained 58% in 2016 and a staggering 168% in 2020.

Source: Peter Brandt

Based on historical patterns, there is a 73% chance that Bitcoin will experience a significant rally in Q4 of 2024. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has observed similar trends, noting that during the 2020 halving cycle, Bitcoin’s bull rally began in the fourth quarter. Ju believes Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, which could trigger a parabolic uptrend as the year’s final quarter approaches.

Resistance Looms, but Momentum Could Build

Despite the optimism, Bitcoin faces significant resistance around the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $59,423. Data from IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model shows that approximately 817,770 BTC was purchased between $59,500 and $61,300, creating stiff resistance in this price range.

Bitcoin quarterly returns (%). Source: Coinglass

If Bitcoin can break through this barrier, further resistance at $61,383 and $62,323 could be next. However, if these levels aren’t surpassed, Bitcoin’s price could face a decline, potentially revisiting the $57,500 or even $54,500 levels, according to analyst Mark Cullen.

With the potential for a parabolic rally or a drop in price, Q4 could be a pivotal period for Bitcoin as it continues to navigate its post-halving cycle.