Bitcoin might be on the verge of a significant price rally, with market analysts predicting a potential new record high before the upcoming US election. Historically, Bitcoin has seen local bottoms in the third quarter of election years, often followed by strong price recoveries. In line with this trend, Bitcoin hit a six-month low of around $49,500 during the recent market downturn, which some analysts believe may mark the local bottom for 2024.

Bitcoin price performances in the third quarter of US election years. Source: SuperBro

Technical analyst SuperBro highlights that Bitcoin’s historical patterns in election years, such as 2012, 2016, and 2020, suggest a bullish trajectory in the months leading up to November. This time, Bitcoin’s price dynamics are also influenced by the “left-translated cycle” theory, which indicates that Bitcoin’s bullish cycles are beginning earlier, with price peaks occurring sooner than in previous cycles.

SuperBro points out that Bitcoin’s latest peak arrived a month before its fourth halving in April 2024, a deviation from past cycles where the price surged post-halving. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach new highs sooner than expected, potentially catching slower market participants off guard.

Source: SuperBro

Further supporting the bullish outlook is Bitcoin’s on-chain data. Long-term holders have been consistently locking in profits, while the realized profit/loss ratio shows signs of decline. This pattern historically precedes price rallies, further fueling optimism for a pre-election surge.

Bitcoin LTH net realized profit/loss. Source: Glassnode

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is also forming a bull flag pattern, which traditionally signals continued upward momentum. If Bitcoin breaks above the flag’s upper trendline, the price could rise to around $80,000 by November.

With the US election fast approaching and potential regulatory changes on the horizon, market sentiment appears to favor a strong Bitcoin performance in the coming months.