As the GENIUS Act nears approval in the US Senate, Ripple’s XRP could be on the brink of a major rally. Backed by favourable regulation and increased adoption of its native stablecoin RLUSD, XRP may surge to $4 and beyond, especially if RLUSD captures a significant portion of Tether’s market dominance. Here’s how the scenario could unfold.

GENIUS Act: A Game-Changer for U.S. Stablecoins

Ripple’s ecosystem could receive a significant boost from the GENIUS (Guaranteed Electronic Nationwide Infrastructure for Ubiquitous Stability) Act, a new piece of legislation poised for Senate approval next week. Introduced by Senator Bill Hagerty, the act seeks to establish clear guidelines for the issuance and use of stablecoins within the United States. The act prioritises dollar-pegged payment stablecoins such as RLUSD—Ripple’s native stablecoin.

US Senator Bill Hagerty

White House Digital Assets Advisor Bo Hines echoed this support, stating,

“Stablecoins strengthen U.S. dollar dominance, modernise our outdated payment rails, and give Americans faster, cheaper, and more transparent ways to move money.”

This act could level the playing field for homegrown stablecoins like RLUSD, giving them a strong edge over foreign-issued tokens such as Tether’s USDT.

RLUSD’s Path to a $75 Billion Market Cap

Currently, RLUSD has a modest market cap of $313 million and approximately 2,660 holders. However, its trading volume reached $61 million, indicating budding interest. In contrast, Tether commands a massive $150 billion market cap and $54 billion in daily volume.

RLUSD Stablecoin

If RLUSD were to reach even 50% of Tether’s dominance, that would imply a market cap of $75 billion—an astronomical increase of over 200x from current levels.

While this might seem ambitious, it’s not impossible. Since its launch five months ago, RLUSD’s market cap has grown six-fold, tracking closely with XRP’s price movements. If this pace continues and is supported by regulatory clarity, the stablecoin could hit the $2 billion mark within months and keep scaling up. The GENIUS Act could further accelerate this trajectory by encouraging mass adoption of RLUSD for domestic and international payments.

XRP Price Forecast: Road to $4 and Beyond

Ripple (XRP) currently trades at $2.37, following a minor daily dip of 1.35%, while 24-hour trading volumes have dropped by 37%. However, several indicators suggest an upcoming price rally.

Historical patterns show that after RLUSD received regulatory approval in December 2024, XRP surged 70% within a month. A similar uptick now would send XRP past $4, a level not seen since the crypto bull runs of previous cycles.

A 30% price increase from the current level would place XRP comfortably around $3.08, with higher targets likely if RLUSD adoption picks up as projected.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Builds

From a technical standpoint, XRP is displaying bullish signs. The token has just broken out of a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart—often a precursor to major upward moves.

Other indicators confirm the bullish momentum:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing north and forming higher lows, indicating increasing buying pressure.

• Awesome Oscillator (AO) bars have flipped green again, a classic signal of positive momentum building up.

To confirm the breakout, XRP must decisively close above resistance levels. Should that happen, and with fundamental catalysts like the GENIUS Act in play, a breakout to $4 or higher is increasingly likely.

Can RLUSD Really Rival Tether?

While achieving a $75 billion market cap is a long-term target, the immediate focus is on solid, sustainable growth. RLUSD’s alignment with U.S. regulatory frameworks positions it uniquely to attract institutional adoption, something Tether has long struggled with due to transparency and jurisdiction concerns.

If Tether’s market dominance is even partially eroded due to changing regulatory landscapes, RLUSD stands as a likely beneficiary. Additionally, other US-native stablecoins like USDC could also gain, but RLUSD’s integration within the Ripple ecosystem gives it a transactional edge, particularly in cross-border payments.

A Turning Point for Ripple and U.S. Crypto Policy

As the GENIUS Act nears passage, the U.S. stablecoin market is bracing for a paradigm shift. RLUSD is at the forefront of this change, and its rise could dramatically reshape the XRP ecosystem.

XRP/USDT: 1-Week Chart

Should RLUSD attain half of Tether’s market share, XRP could break through its current resistance and surge past $4, supported by both fundamental growth and bullish technical indicators.

The convergence of regulation, market demand, and technological adoption makes this a pivotal moment—not just for Ripple, but for the broader digital payments landscape in the United States.