The XRP market is gearing up for a potential price surge in the fourth quarter of 2024. Several factors, including technical indicators, whale accumulation, and the nearing resolution of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC, suggest that XRP could reach or surpass the $1 mark, a level it hasn’t seen since 2021.
Technical Indicators Point to Breakout
XRP’s weekly chart displays a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming since early 2018. This pattern, characterized by converging trendlines, is compressing the price action. XRP is currently testing the upper trendline resistance of this pattern and could break out toward the $1 resistance level in the coming months.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
For XRP to achieve this, it must surpass the $0.86 mark, which has historically been a significant barrier. The relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly chart is rebounding from the 50 level, indicating increasing buying momentum. Additionally, the volume profile shows rising trading activity, often a precursor to a sustained price movement.
Whale Accumulation Signals Bullish Sentiment
On-chain data from Santiment reveals that major XRP holders, known as whales, have been accumulating the token in recent weeks. The richest cohort, those holding over 1 billion tokens, have increased their holdings to 41.44% from 40.27% in 2024. Other whale cohorts, particularly those holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens, have also shown increased accumulation.
XRP supply distribution among whales. Source: Santiment
This accumulation among high-value cohorts is typically a bullish signal, indicating that large investors expect higher prices and are leveraging their market influence to facilitate this.
Ripple vs. SEC: A Potential Settlement in Sight
The long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be nearing its conclusion. In 2023, a partial victory for Ripple was achieved when Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security when sold on digital asset exchanges, although it is considered a security when sold to institutional investors.
Source: X
A crucial meeting between Ripple and the SEC has been rescheduled to July 25, 2024, where potential settlements will be discussed. Analysts believe a favorable settlement could significantly boost XRP’s price. Additionally, the potential approval of an XRP-spot ETF could drive further market interest and price appreciation.
However, some legal experts remain cautious. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel expressed skepticism about a settlement, suggesting the case might continue through the legal process. Nevertheless, Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, remains optimistic that a resolution could be reached before the end of summer 2024.
