XRP Poised for Fresh Breakout Amid Familiar Technical Pattern
Ripple’s native cryptocurrency XRP is showing signs of repeating a bullish price pattern that previously led to a major rally earlier this year. Analysts and traders are closely watching the token as it consolidates within a falling wedge structure — a setup that preceded a 70 percent surge between December 2024 and January 2025. This renewed pattern is now raising expectations for a similar move, potentially lifting the price toward the $3.75 to $4.00 range in the coming weeks.
Falling Wedge Signals Potential 20 Percent Upside
XRP’s price behaviour is once again echoing the technical structure that triggered its early 2025 rally. Back then, XRP held firm above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), consolidated within a falling wedge, and eventually broke out in early January. This upward breakout reclaimed the 20-day EMA as support and propelled the price from around $2 to above $3.39 — a gain of more than 70 percent.
XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Currently trading around $2.98, XRP is once again exhibiting similar consolidation behaviour within a falling wedge, bouncing off its 50-day EMA and reclaiming the 20-day EMA. Its relative strength index (RSI) has also mirrored the previous pattern — retreating from overbought territory and stabilising near the 50 level — a condition that preceded the last breakout.
As of early August, XRP is testing the upper trend line of the wedge. A confirmed breakout could result in a 20 percent rally, pushing prices toward the $3.75 mark. However, if the price fails to break out immediately, a retest of the 50-day EMA could be likely. A close below this support level might lead to a drop toward the wedge’s apex, near the 200-day EMA at around $2.34.
Analysts Target $4 as Broader Market Catalysts Align
Market sentiment surrounding XRP is gaining momentum as a number of broader financial factors come into play. Whale accumulation — the process where large holders buy and hold significant quantities of the token — has increased in recent weeks, indicating confidence among institutional players.
Furthermore, a possible interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September may spur fresh risk appetite across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Lower interest rates typically reduce returns on traditional savings and bonds, encouraging investors to move capital into higher-risk assets like digital currencies.
Several analysts suggest that a clean breakout from the wedge pattern, combined with strengthening macroeconomic support, could drive XRP past the $4 mark within this market cycle.
XRP Ledger Sees Strong Growth and Stablecoin Surge
Beyond technicals and macroeconomic factors, XRP’s fundamental ecosystem is also expanding rapidly. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) processed more than 70 million transactions in July 2025 alone, while over 1 million new accounts have been created since the beginning of the year, according to Dune Analytics.
A significant driver of this growth has been the increasing use of stablecoins on the XRPL network. In Brazil, Braza Bank issued more than 4.2 million dollars worth of its BBRL stablecoin on XRPL last month, positioning it as the country’s second-largest BRL-backed digital token after Transfero Group’s BRZ.
In the United States, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin is also gaining traction. Daily transaction volume surged from approximately 5,000 transfers to over 12,000 within the span of one month. This rapid increase highlights the growing relevance of XRPL in cross-border and institutional payment systems.
XRPL’s BRL stablecoin holders/supply by token. Source: Dune Analytics
Utility Narrative Strengthens Bullish Outlook
The rise in on-chain activity and stablecoin issuance on XRPL has enhanced its utility narrative, painting a more optimistic picture for long-term adoption. These fundamentals add strength to the technical bullish outlook for XRP, giving traders and investors more reasons to expect a breakout and sustained price momentum.
With the combination of a recurring fractal pattern, macroeconomic tailwinds, whale accumulation, and robust on-chain data, XRP appears well-positioned to attempt a move toward the $3.75 to $4.00 range in August. Nonetheless, investors remain cautious as the token must first confirm a breakout above the wedge’s upper resistance line to validate this bullish scenario.
