XRP price is building momentum as technical indicators align with rising optimism over spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. Analysts suggest the token could soon break higher, with projections ranging from $5 to even $20 in the months ahead.
Bull Flag Formation Points to Rally
XRP is currently trading at $2.86, consolidating within a bull flag pattern on the daily chart. A bull flag is a continuation setup in technical analysis that forms after a strong upward move, typically resolving in another leg higher.
The upper trendline resistance sits at $3. A daily close above this level would confirm a breakout, setting the stage for a push towards $5. Achieving this target would represent a 77% increase from the current price.
Analysts, including Crypto Pulse, stress that XRP must hold above the August low of $2.75 to preserve its bullish structure. A failure to defend this level could see the token retreat to the $2.5–$2.6 support zone before mounting another attempt higher.
Resistance and Support Levels
To reach $5, XRP must clear several hurdles. The first challenge lies at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3.08, which has capped the price since late August. Further resistance levels are noted at $3.40 and at $3.66, the multi-year high recorded in mid-July.
On the downside, key support lies between the 100-day SMA at $2.68 and the 200-day SMA at $2.48. Bulls will need to defend this zone to prevent the invalidation of the bullish flag setup.
“XRP could be gearing up for its next big breakout toward $5,” Crypto Pulse said, while cautioning that a dip below $2.75 could trigger a deeper pullback.
Spot ETF Decision Approaches
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is due to rule on multiple spot XRP ETF applications between 18 and 25 October, with the Franklin Templeton proposal facing a deadline on 14 November.
XRP/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView
At present, 11 applications are under review, buoyed by Ripple’s 2024 legal victory, which established that XRP is not a security. The outcome could mark a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market.
Approval Odds Near Certainty
Market sentiment has shifted dramatically over the past month. Data from Polymarket shows approval odds climbing from 64% in early August to 87% by the start of September.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, said he believes approval is now almost inevitable. “Personally, I think the odds are closer to 100%,” he posted on X.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas placed the chances at 95%, pointing to regulatory clarity and leadership changes at the SEC.
Institutional Demand Could Fuel Long-Term Gains
An approved ETF would open the door for significant institutional investment, potentially unlocking billions in fresh capital for XRP. Analysts argue this could propel prices far beyond the $5 technical target.
Some forecasts suggest XRP could rise towards $10–$20 once institutional inflows begin, while more ambitious projections envision $50 if major financial firms, including BlackRock, participate in the market.
For now, traders are watching the $3 breakout level closely. A decisive move above it could confirm the start of XRP’s next major rally, coinciding with what many believe is an imminent green light for an ETF.
