XRP is currently displaying patterns reminiscent of the conditions that preceded its monumental 60,000% price rally in 2017-2018. The cryptocurrency’s monthly volatility has plummeted to its lowest levels ever, a situation that historically has preceded significant price movements.
Record-low volatility Indicates a Potential Breakout
The Bollinger Band Width (BBW) on XRP’s monthly chart reached a new low in July, indicating that the XRP/USD trading pair has been confined within a narrower range for an extended period. From a technical standpoint, periods of low volatility often precede major price movements. When the bands narrow, it suggests an imminent breakout, either upward or downward, as the market shifts back to higher volatility.
XRP/USD monthly price chart. Source: TradingView/Tony Severino
Historically, XRP’s BBW was at its narrowest during the 2016-2017 period, which was followed by a staggering 66,000% price breakout. The current consolidation phase for XRP has lasted twice as long as in 2016-2017, with even lower monthly volatility. Analysts, including Tony Severino, believe this could signal a major upcoming price breakout in the XRP market.
Can XRP Repeat Its Historic Rally?
XRP’s current valuation of approximately $0.62 places it near the middle Bollinger Band on the monthly timeframe, reflecting balanced market forces. The monthly relative strength index (RSI) reading of around 53 further indicates neutral market sentiment. However, XRP trading above the middle Bollinger Band suggests a slight bullish tilt.
XRP/USD monthly price chart. Source: TradingView
The similarity in the Bollinger Bandwidth contraction to the 2016-2017 session raises the possibility of another substantial price movement. XRP’s giant symmetrical triangle formation hints at potential upside continuation if it follows a strong price rally. The breakout target of this symmetrical triangle, calculated by measuring the maximum distance between its trendlines and adding it to the breakout point, suggests an upside target of $14.75, a potential 2,200% increase from current levels.
XRP/USD monthly price chart. Source: TradingView
Fundamental Factors at Play
From a fundamental perspective, XRP’s potential upside could be driven by favorable regulatory developments in the United States, particularly if Donald Trump is re-elected and the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit is resolved. However, any significant price breakout might take months to materialize, potentially aligning with the convergence of the triangle’s trendlines in August 2025. A decisive breakdown below the lower trendline, however, would invalidate this long-term bullish scenario.
