TRON (TRX), one of the market’s longest-standing altcoins, is confronting a major inflection point after its price slipped below a parabolic trend line that has guided its ascent for over 1,050 days. The breach marks the end of an era of steady gains that began in early 2023 and helped TRX reach an all-time high of $0.45 in December 2024.
However, the euphoria was short-lived. Despite the milestone, TRX quickly lost momentum, forming a long upper wick that signalled fading buying pressure. Since then, the price has clung to the crucial $0.32 support zone, a level now acting as the final line of defence against a deeper market correction.
A sustained breakdown below this threshold could unleash a 35% crash, sending TRX tumbling toward the $0.22 region, analysts warn.
Breakdown from the 1,050-Day Parabola: A Bearish Turning Point
Weekly chart analysis reveals that TRON’s price had been consistently supported by a parabolic ascending trend line since the beginning of 2023. This structure fuelled repeated rebounds, allowing the asset to maintain its bullish market posture even during broader crypto downturns.
But last week’s market turmoil, labelled the largest crypto liquidation event on record– proved too much for TRX. The breakdown beneath the long-standing parabola marked a decisive technical shift, often signalling the transition from an uptrend to a prolonged downtrend.
Historically, such breakdowns from multi-year parabolic structures precede significant losses, as investor sentiment turns from euphoria to fear. While TRX has temporarily stabilized above $0.32, the lack of volume support and fading momentum indicators suggest that this may only be a brief pause before further decline.
Technical Indicators Turn Bearish
Momentum and trend indicators align with the growing bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have both produced bearish divergences, indicating waning momentum despite recent price attempts to recover.
TRX/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: TradingView
More critically, the MACD line has crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover, often seen as a final confirmation of a trend reversal. This technical setup reinforces expectations of extended weakness.
Moreover, the broader market context adds weight to this analysis. With Bitcoin and other major altcoins showing signs of exhaustion following 2024’s parabolic runs, investor capital appears to be rotating away from high-beta assets like TRON.
Unless the $0.32 zone holds, the lack of immediate historical support could open the door for a swift 30–35% correction toward $0.22, a level last seen in mid-2023.
Wave Count Hints at Completed Cycle
From a wave structure perspective, TRON’s long-term Elliott Wave count further strengthens the bearish thesis. The pattern indicates a completed symmetrical triangle, which functioned as either a wave four or wave B formation within a higher-degree structure. Such formations typically precede a final bullish rally, in this case, the December 2024 breakout. before a major reversal begins.
TRX/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: TradingView
This interpretation suggests that TRX’s five-wave upward movement has already been completed. Although wave five failed to surpass wave three’s high, the structure remains valid due to the extensive upper wick observed during wave three. This supports the case for a completed bullish cycle and a potential long-term correction phase that could extend well into 2026.
Outlook: $0.32 Remains the Line in the Sand
The $0.32 support remains TRON’s make-or-break level in the coming months. A successful defence could offer temporary stability or even a relief rally, potentially allowing TRX to retest the $0.36–$0.38 range. However, any decisive weekly close below $0.32 would likely trigger an accelerated sell-off, pushing the token toward $0.22 and confirming the end of its multi-year bullish trend.
With major technical indicators flashing warning signs and the parabolic structure broken, TRON’s bullish narrative is hanging by a thread. Unless bulls can defend the current support, the network’s native token may be entering its most challenging phase since 2022.
