Solana (SOL) is back in the spotlight after reclaiming strong momentum in both its spot and derivatives markets. With open interest in Solana futures hitting an all-time high and technical charts flashing bullish signals, some analysts now believe that a $1,000 price target may be within reach.
SOL Price Rebounds and Forms Bullish Patterns
After falling to $155 on 3 August, Solana staged an impressive recovery, gaining more than 36% to touch $210 on Wednesday. The rebound has coincided with the emergence of several bullish technical setups on the weekly chart.
One of the most prominent is a megaphone pattern, also known as a broadening wedge. This structure, which forms when prices create higher highs and lower lows, is widely seen as a bullish continuation pattern. If Solana breaks decisively above the upper boundary of the pattern, currently around $330, it could trigger a parabolic rally. Based on the measured move from this pattern, analysts are eyeing a potential target of $1,057, representing a nearly 400% gain from current levels.
SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The relative strength index (RSI) has also climbed from 49 to 61 since early August, suggesting growing bullish momentum. On top of that, Solana has confirmed a breakout from a cup-and-handle formation on the weekly chart. With SOL still trading above the breakout point at $160, the pattern remains valid, setting up a possible continuation towards $250, the neckline resistance.
SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
If bulls can clear the $250 level, Fibonacci retracement levels project potential upside as high as $1,030. Crypto analyst Gally Sama summarised the sentiment in a recent X post:
“Target remains $1000 for $SOL once we break out of this range.”
Open Interest Surges to Record High
Backing up the bullish technical picture is Solana’s futures market, where open interest (OI) has soared to record levels. On Saturday, OI in Solana futures reached $13.68 billion, marking the highest in its history.
This surge reflects intense speculative activity, with traders betting heavily on further upside. Historically, spikes in OI have preceded significant price moves. Between April and July, for instance, OI jumped by 188% while SOL’s price more than doubled, rising over 103%.
SOL futures open interest across all exchanges. Source: CoinGlass
The latest rise in OI coincides with a 17% price gain to around $217 and the approval of the long-anticipated Alpenglow upgrade.
Alpenglow Upgrade Boosts Network Optimism
Solana developers recently approved the Alpenglow upgrade with overwhelming 98.27% support. This upgrade slashes transaction finality from 12.8 seconds to just 150 milliseconds, dramatically enhancing throughput to over 107,000 transactions per second (TPS).
Such improvements reinforce Solana’s reputation as one of the fastest blockchain networks and sharpen its competitive edge against Ethereum. Analysts argue that institutional adoption, combined with these technical upgrades, could propel SOL into a new growth phase. If demand from decentralised finance (DeFi) and token launches accelerates in 2025, Solana could realistically challenge its previous all-time highs and beyond.
Onchain Data Raises Caution
Despite bullish market sentiment, onchain metrics suggest potential weaknesses in Solana’s rally. While Solana’s DeFi ecosystem has grown to hold around $12 billion in total value locked (TVL), its overall network activity has fallen.
Data shows Solana’s transaction count dropped by 99% over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, active addresses fell by 22%, reflecting reduced user participation. In contrast, Ethereum activity rose by 39% during the same period, according to Nansen.
Blockchains ranked by 30-day transactions. Source: Nansen
Decentralised exchange (DEX) activity has also declined, with weekly volumes on Solana DEXs falling 65% to $10.67 billion, as per DefiLlama data. This trend raises questions about the sustainability of the rally, since price growth without rising usage may be difficult to maintain.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism
Solana’s technical setup and record-high open interest have generated strong optimism among traders, with many pointing towards a four-digit price target. The Alpenglow upgrade has further fuelled confidence in Solana’s long-term prospects.
However, the drop in network activity and declining DEX volumes highlight underlying challenges. For SOL to sustain a rally towards $1,000, it may need not just speculative demand but also renewed growth in user adoption and DeFi participation.
For now, bulls have their eyes on the next key resistance levels at $210 and $250. Clearing these hurdles could set Solana on course towards a breakout, but whether the fundamentals will follow remains the critical question.
