Solana’s (SOL) price appears poised for further gains as a confluence of bullish signals—including a sharp rise in ETF approval odds, increased onchain activity, and strong derivatives interest—fuels optimism for a move toward $300 and beyond.
SOL rose by 4.3% in the past 24 hours to trade at $165 on Wednesday. Although still 43% below its all-time high of $294 from January 2024, current market conditions suggest the potential for a breakout to new highs.
Solana Derivatives Show Institutional Demand
The bullish momentum was matched by a surge in leveraged trading. Open interest (OI) in SOL futures climbed to $7.54 billion, marking a 12% increase in just 24 hours and a 20% gain over the past week. This figure is now only 12% below the all-time high of $8.57 billion recorded in January.
Solana ETF approval odds on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
The rise in OI indicates robust institutional activity in Solana’s derivatives market. However, such growth can also bring risks of forced liquidations if prices drop sharply. Still, the uptick in participation highlights continued confidence in Solana’s price potential among traders and institutions.
DApp Activity and TVL Suggest Strong Network Growth
Fundamentals on the Solana blockchain are also strengthening. The network’s total value locked (TVL)—a key metric of smart contract deposits—has hit a two-year high of 56.8 million SOL, equating to roughly $9.1 billion. This shows rising usage and value being stored on the platform.
Additionally, the number of active addresses engaging with Solana’s decentralised applications (DApps) soared by 38.5% in the past 24 hours, reaching 2.7 million. Among the top five DApps, unique active wallets (UAWs) have surged by 77% to 300%, further reflecting growing interest in Solana’s ecosystem.
These indicators suggest strong network activity, increased developer and user engagement, and rising demand for the native SOL token.
Spot ETF Approval Odds Hit 91%
A significant catalyst driving market excitement is the soaring probability of a spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining regulatory approval. According to Polymarket, the chances of approval rose to 91% on Wednesday.
This follows multiple ETF filings from major asset managers including VanEck, Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas remarked that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could act sooner than expected, raising the probability of approval to 90%.
“Get ready for a potential Alt Coin ETF Summer with Solana likely leading the way,” Balchunas noted. Approval of a spot ETF would offer institutional investors a regulated entry point into SOL, potentially unlocking billions in fresh capital and driving price momentum.
Technical Pattern Suggests $335 Target
Technical indicators also back a bullish outlook. On the weekly chart, SOL has formed a classic bull flag pattern—a continuation pattern that typically signals further upside after a brief consolidation.
SOL/USD daily chart.
If this pattern plays out as expected, SOL could rise to $335, which represents a 103% increase from its current level. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also climbed from 36 in March to 51 this week, showing increasing bullish strength.
However, for the uptrend to solidify, analysts note that SOL must first reclaim and hold the $190 resistance level as new support. A successful flip of this key level would provide a strong foundation for further price gains.
Conclusion
With onchain metrics, institutional participation, and regulatory optimism aligning, Solana appears to be on the cusp of a major breakout. Should the ETF approval come through and key technical levels be surpassed, analysts believe a run toward $300—and even higher targets—may soon become a reality.
