Solana’s recent recovery rally continues to show signs of exhaustion as weak network activity, falling total value locked, and the first negative ETF flows since launch weigh on sentiment. A bearish chart pattern now places the spotlight on a potential drop toward $100, raising doubts about SOL’s ability to break above $150 in the near term.
Institutional Demand Softens as ETF Flows Turn Negative
Solana exchange traded funds posted their first day of net outflows on Wednesday, with $8.2 million leaving the market. This shift ended a strong streak of inflows and suggested that institutional appetite for SOL may be losing momentum.
Solana: total value locked. Source: DefiLlama
Network data reinforces this concern. Nansen reported a 6 percent fall in active addresses over the past week. Network fees also slipped by 16 percent during the same period, pointing to reduced user engagement.
Steep Decline in Solana’s TVL Raises Concerns
Solana’s total value locked dropped twenty percent in November. From its September peak of $13.23 billion, the figure has now retreated to $9.1 billion as of 11 November. Major protocols also recorded sharp declines.
Jito’s deposits fell 33 percent over the past month. Jupiter lost 28 percent. Raydium dropped 31 percent. Sanctum recorded a 22 percent decrease.
The weakening onchain activity adds pressure to Solana’s recovery attempts near $150. While price is not guaranteed to remain below this level, the broader trend signals caution.
Upbit Hack Injects Fresh Volatility
Market sentiment took another hit following the $36 million hack of South Korean exchange Upbit’s Solana hot wallet. The platform temporarily suspended SOL deposits and withdrawals for maintenance.
The halt restricts liquidity at a time when Solana needs stable trading flow to regain strength. Such disruptions can increase volatility and prompt sharper intraday moves.
SOL managed to climb three percent to $143 shortly after the incident, showing some resilience. Even so, analysts warn that the uncertainty may limit any push beyond the $150 resistance zone in the short term.
Bear Flag Pattern Signals Potential Drop Toward $100
SOL’s six hour chart has developed a classic bear flag pattern. The structure began forming after the token hit a local high of about $170 on 17 November. Since then, price action has drifted upward inside a narrow channel.
The lower boundary of the flag sits near $140. A clear break under this support would confirm the pattern and open the way for a larger continuation move downward.
The measured target for the bear flag stands at roughly $99. This scenario implies a total decline of about thirty percent from current levels.
SOL/USD six-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Analyst MR Ape noted that the $145 region is a critical pivot that has already rejected price three times. Momentum appears to be fading as SOL approaches this area once again.
Previous analysis indicates that a fall below $120 could extend losses toward $110. A deeper drop may take the SOL/USDT pair to around $95, where stronger demand is expected to emerge.
Outlook
Solana’s short term prospects remain clouded by weakening fundamentals, shrinking liquidity, and negative institutional flows. Until network activity stabilises and trading conditions improve, SOL may struggle to break decisively above $150.
Technical signals currently favour caution as the market awaits clearer direction at this key price level.
