Gold has officially reached a historic $30 trillion market capitalisation, a milestone that cements its position as the world’s dominant store of value.
The precious metal’s price has climbed past $4,300 per ounce, setting a new all-time high and outpacing nearly every other major asset, including Bitcoin (BTC).
For Bitcoin to match Gold’s valuation, it would need to rally by around 1,500%, pushing its price above the $1 million per coin mark. While that scenario has long been a target for Bitcoin maximalists, the current market dynamics suggest the journey to parity is tougher than ever.
Year to date, Gold has soared 65%, while Bitcoin has managed a modest 11% gain, one of the rare years in which the metal has convincingly outperformed the digital asset.
Why Gold Is Outshining Bitcoin
A mix of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors has propelled Gold’s extraordinary rise.
Global investors are increasingly turning to the metal amid rising economic uncertainty, mounting government debt, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, all of which have amplified fears over fiscal stability.
The Federal Reserve’s independence has also come under scrutiny, with speculation that political pressure could push it to cut interest rates prematurely. Such a move could stoke inflation, traditionally a bullish signal for Gold, which serves as both a store of value and an inflation hedge.
BTC vs. Gold Performance | Credit: TradingView
Geopolitical tensions are adding further fuel. Renewed U.S.–China trade frictions, particularly over China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, have revived global supply chain fears, prompting investors to increase exposure to hard assets like Gold.
Institutional demand is another powerful driver. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been aggressively accumulating reserves, boosting liquidity and fuelling sustained buying pressure. Analysts suggest that if the trend continues, Gold’s price could approach $5,000 per ounce before the end of the year.
Bitcoin Faces Renewed Skepticism
Bitcoin’s performance has been far less impressive. After briefly climbing above $126,000 on the back of institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency has since retraced nearly 17% from its peak.
Economist and long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff argues that the digital asset has failed to prove itself as “digital gold.”
“It’s not just a de-dollarization trade but a de-bitcoinization trade,” Schiff commented on X. “Bitcoin has failed the test as a viable alternative to the U.S. dollar or to gold. HODLers are in denial, and it will cost them dearly.”
Gold advocate Peter Spina echoed the sentiment, noting that Bitcoin’s relative weakness since 2021 raises questions about its role as a liquidity indicator.
“Bitcoin has failed to break out against real money: Gold,” Spina said. “With its 2023 uptrend faltering, another tumble could be ahead.”
However, not everyone shares the bearish outlook. Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas remains bullish, arguing that Bitcoin will eventually catch up and surpass Gold.
“Bitcoin will go up at least 14 times to catch up with Gold and then continue to outperform,” Salinas asserted.
Technical Outlook: BTC Risks Drop Below $100K
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart is flashing warning signs. The asset has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, typically a signal of a trend reversal. The recent break below the $108,900 neckline confirms this bearish structure.
Momentum indicators add to the caution. The MACD has turned negative following a bearish crossover, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has slipped below zero, both suggesting sellers are gaining control.
BTC/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
Analysts warn that if this bearish pressure persists, Bitcoin could test the $100,000 psychological support level, with potential downside extending to around $98,000, marking its lowest point in weeks.
Still, a reversal cannot be ruled out. If institutional capital that has recently favoured Gold begins flowing back into Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency could regain momentum. In that scenario, BTC could reclaim the $126,000 zone, reviving bullish sentiment and reopening the discussion about long-term parity with Gold.
Outlook: Digital vs. Physical Safe Havens
The current divergence between Gold and Bitcoin underscores a broader shift in market psychology. While both are seen as alternatives to fiat currencies, investors appear to be prioritising stability over speculation amid mounting global risks.
Gold’s record-breaking run highlights its enduring role as the ultimate safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin, once viewed as the next-generation rival is facing renewed scrutiny about its volatility and institutional reliability.
Yet, the battle between the two is far from over. Should macro conditions shift and liquidity return to risk assets, Bitcoin may once again narrow the gap. For now, however, Gold reigns supreme and Bitcoin’s million-dollar dream looks further away than ever.
