In the past 30 days, the Bitcoin (BTC) price movement has been predominantly characterized by sideways movement, despite significant developments such as spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Grayscale lawsuit. However, on-chain data suggests that the current trading pattern of BTC exhibits inherent strength in terms of the trader lifecycle.
Glassnode data reveals a spike in active BTC trading, specifically in the supply that was last active within the range of six months to one year based on a one-day moving average. Interestingly, this spike coincided with Grayscale’s legal victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Typically, a peak in the supply last active for BTC over six months is associated with either a bull market scenario or a sell-off environment, indicating increased trading volume.
The recent developments, including the Grayscale lawsuit win and the XRP lawsuit Summary Judgment, have positively influenced investor sentiment in the altcoin space. Additionally, major financial institutions like Blackrock have been seeking SEC approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF, further contributing to the positive sentiment. However, the future trajectory of BTC price will depend on the macroeconomic environment in the United States.
As the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches on September 19-20, 2023, there is a 98% chance, according to respondents on the CME FedWatch Tool, that the Fed will maintain the current interest rates. Over the past two years, the FOMC decisions have caused high volatility in Bitcoin due to the central bank’s aggressive rate hiking measures.
However, since the beginning of 2023, there has been a slowdown in this trend, with optimism surrounding monetary policy easing through rate cuts or pauses.