Fidelity’s director of global macro research Jurrien Timmer has suggested that Bitcoin may have already reached the peak of its current four year halving cycle. He believes the asset’s surge to a record high of around $125,000 on 6 October marked both a price peak and a timing peak for the cycle.
While Timmer remains optimistic about Bitcoin over the long term he warned that the market could now be entering a period of cooling. In a post on X he said Bitcoin may have completed another halving driven cycle which historically has been followed by a prolonged downturn.

2026 tipped as an off year for Bitcoin

Timmer noted that previous Bitcoin winters have typically lasted close to a year. Based on that pattern he expects 2026 to be a quieter period for the market. He estimates that strong support could emerge between $65,000 and $75,000 which he views as a potential bottom range.

Source: Jurrien Timmer

Despite this cautious outlook he described himself as a secular bull meaning he continues to believe in Bitcoin’s long term growth story driven by adoption scarcity and its role as a store of value.

Analysts disagree on extended bull market outlook
Timmer’s view contrasts with expectations from several other prominent crypto analysts who argue that the traditional four year cycle may be breaking down. They point to increasing regulatory clarity and a growing range of regulated crypto investment products as reasons the bull market could extend well into 2026.
Tom Shaughnessy co founder of crypto research firm Delphi Digital expects Bitcoin to reach new all time highs in 2026. He argues that the market is still recovering from a severe liquidation event that wiped out around $19 billion earlier in October. According to Shaughnessy once this shock is fully absorbed prices could rebound sharply to reflect broader industry progress.

Regulation seen as a key driver of future growth
Supporters of a longer cycle believe regulatory developments will play a decisive role in shaping the next phase of the market. Policy specialists anticipate meaningful progress in United States crypto legislation during 2026 which could attract further institutional capital.

Source: Santiment

Cathy Yoon general counsel at crypto research firm Temporal said the focus will shift from passing laws to implementing them. With stablecoin legislation already approved she expects attention to turn to compliance examinations disclosures and integration into payments and financial infrastructure.

Sentiment weak as smart money turns cautious
Market sentiment has recently deteriorated after Bitcoin slipped below $85,000. According to Santiment bearish commentary has dominated platforms such as X Reddit and Telegram following the decline.
Data from Nansen also shows that so called smart money traders are positioning defensively in the short term. These traders were net short Bitcoin by around $123 million suggesting expectations of further downside. In contrast they held significant net long positions in Ether totalling roughly $475 million indicating selective confidence within the broader crypto market.