Ethereum has wrapped up its most impressive monthly performance in over three years, surging by 53% in July 2025. This marks the highest monthly gain since January 2021, when ETH posted an 80% rise that kicked off a prolonged seven-month bull run. The recent spike has ignited renewed optimism within the crypto community, with many analysts suggesting the possibility of a new all-time high (ATH) on the horizon.
What makes this rally significant is not just its magnitude, but also its timing. Earlier this year, Ethereum was seen lagging behind as investors shifted focus to other digital assets. However, the tide has turned. If ETH maintains this momentum through the monthly close, it will register its highest closing price since November 2021, just before it peaked near $4,870.
Equally important is Ethereum’s attempt to break through the $3,850 resistance level, a barrier that has capped price action since late 2021. A confirmed breakout above this mark could pave the way for a retest of the previous ATH—and potentially much higher.
Bullish Technical Signals Flash Green
Ethereum’s technical setup paints a distinctly bullish picture. On the monthly chart, ETH is forming a classic bullish morning star pattern comprising a bearish candle, a doji indicating indecision, and a strong bullish candle. This formation has historically signalled trend reversals and sustained upward momentum in the past.
ETH/USDT Monthly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
Adding to the bullish case, momentum indicators are aligning for the first time in years. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above 50, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has made a bullish crossover in positive territory. The last time these two signals aligned on the monthly chart, Ethereum enjoyed six consecutive months of gains.
ETH/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
Wave analysis also suggests ETH could be completing a long-term corrective structure. Ethereum appears to be in wave C of an A-B-C correction pattern, currently in the third sub-wave of a five-wave move. This implies short-term targets near $4,260, with potential extensions up to $5,770. More aggressively, the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement places the upper limit for Ethereum’s 2025 price at $7,326.
Ethereum Outpaces Bitcoin Amid ETF Boom
Ethereum’s performance isn’t just impressive in USD terms, it’s also showing strength against Bitcoin. For nearly five years, the ETH/BTC ratio has trended downward, but that changed in April 2025, and the trend accelerated in July. The ratio has broken through a long-standing descending resistance trendline and validated it as new support, suggesting a structural trend reversal.
Despite the recent gains, ETH/BTC has yet to reach its next major resistance zones at ₿0.044 and ₿0.053, which are 37% and 63% higher than current levels, respectively. If Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin, it could kickstart a full-fledged altseason, where altcoins outperform BTC across the board.
ETH/BTC Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
Technically, the ETH/BTC chart mirrors the bullish indicators seen in the USD chart. RSI has moved above 50, and MACD has crossed into bullish territory, signals that have previously coincided with Ethereum gaining over 300% in past cycles.
Further fuelling Ethereum’s momentum are record-breaking ETF inflows. July 2025 saw over $11.2 billion in crypto inflows, eclipsing December 2024’s previous record of $7.6 billion. Notably, Ethereum-specific ETF products accounted for a significant portion of this capital, with ETH inflows even surpassing Bitcoin’s on several trading days.
Ethereum ETF Inflows | Credit: SoSo Value
Cumulatively, Ethereum ETF inflows have now exceeded $21 billion, indicating deepening institutional interest. Unlike previous cycles, these inflows are not merely speculative, they suggest a structural shift in market demand, potentially driving more sustainable price growth.
On-Chain Metrics Align with Bullish Outlook
Ethereum’s on-chain data further supports the bullish narrative. One standout metric is the MVRV Pricing Band, which analyses extreme points of unrealised profit and loss. Historically, major Ethereum market cycles have topped between the 2.4x and 3.2x extensions of the MVRV average band.
Ethereum MVRV | Credit: Glassnode
Currently, those extensions fall between $5,000 and $6,500, aligning closely with the Fibonacci targets derived from wave count analysis. This convergence of technical and on-chain signals adds a layer of credibility to the projection that ETH could enter price discovery mode in the coming months.
The combination of strong technicals, increasing ETF demand, and bullish on-chain trends creates a rare confluence that historically precedes major rallies in the crypto market.
Can Ethereum Reclaim Its Throne?
As Ethereum celebrates its 10th anniversary, it finds itself at a critical inflection point. From being declared “dead” earlier this year to now emerging as one of the best-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies, ETH’s turnaround is striking.
If current trends continue, Ethereum could break through historical resistance, surpass previous highs, and challenge the $6,000–$7,000 range within the next 6–12 months. While short-term corrections are always possible, the long-term outlook remains decisively bullish.
Ethereum’s renaissance is more than just price action, it’s a testament to the chain’s resilience, utility, and its role in shaping the decentralised internet. With record ETF flows, growing institutional interest, and a technically sound setup, the coming months could mark a new chapter in Ethereum’s already historic journey.
