Television personality and market commentator Jim Cramer recently suggested that Wall Street may be anticipating a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. However, many crypto investors are interpreting this as an indirect signal of a Trump win, following the infamous “inverse Cramer” effect, where the opposite of Cramer’s predictions often come to pass.
Markets Signal Harris Win, Cramer Says
On November 4, Cramer analyzed stock market performance, observing what he perceived as investor confidence in a Harris presidency. “I’m not sure the market’s right about what a Harris presidency would mean for business, but at least now we have a blueprint for what Wall Street thinks it’ll mean,” he noted. His comments came just a day before election day, sparking reactions in the crypto community, where political interest has surged.
Trump vs. Harris, winning odds. Source: Polymarket
The “Inverse Cramer” Effect Fuels Trump Speculation
Crypto traders and investors have long noted the “inverse Cramer” trend, a phenomenon where Cramer’s market predictions are followed by the opposite outcome. While a short-lived exchange-traded fund (ETF) was once launched to capitalize on this trend by shorting its stock picks, it closed after 10 months with a 15% return. Still, the perception remains that betting against Cramer’s predictions can be profitable, leading some to speculate that a Trump victory may be on the cards.
Polymarket Whales Bet Big on Trump
On the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, several high-stakes investors, or “whales,” have placed significant bets on Trump’s re-election. On November 5, a whale known as “walletmobile” deposited nearly $5 million in USD Coin to back Trump, with $2.8 million already wagered. Another prominent whale, “zxgngl,” Polymarket’s largest Trump supporter, withdrew an additional $3.1 million in USDC for Trump bets on the same day. In total, this investor holds over $18.5 million in “Yes” shares for Trump, with an unrealized profit of $528,000, according to Polymarket data.
Polymarket whale account, “zxgngl.” Source: Polymarket
One Whale’s Influence Shifts Trump Odds
As of late October, four of Polymarket’s top six Trump-voting accounts were linked to a single entity, “Fredi9999,” which bolstered Trump’s odds past 60%. However, recent transactions suggest that “zxgngl” operates independently, now surpassing Fredi’s accounts with over 29.4 million “Yes” shares. As election day unfolds, Polymarket’s whales are keeping a close watch on the outcome, betting millions on what could be an unexpected twist in the 2024 race.
